Is irrational exuberance back? Records keep falling. Maybe this time it is different. But Friday steadied the market with a downdraft as some economic numbers came in on the low side. And COVID-19 cases are jumping outside China catching many by surprise. Now in 33 countries. Our recession indicator spread (page 18) is sliding again and the 3m-10 spread has turned negative. Capital flight has been driving the market pushing the U.S. dollar up and money flowing into U.S. bonds and the U.S. stock market. But money flowing into gold as well despite the jump in the U.S. dollar. Then on Friday the U.S. dollar dropped sharply and gold soared. Gold fast approaching our targets and could hit $1,700 this week. Too fast of a move has our fingers on the take profits button. Our Chart of the Week (page 6) looks at a rather interesting case of possible symmetry in the markets. We look at the NASDAQ of 1998-2000 and compare it with the NASDAQ of 2018-present. Could a top be in the markets given the sharp sell-off on Friday? Still needs confirmation but negative divergences abound as we note in a few charts. In addition to being designed to allocate to cash in the event of a sustained market decline, the Canadian Dividend Strategy provides downside protection with income-paying investments such as Granite Real Estate Investment Trust yielding a dividend of 3.89%.* Oh and dare we mention President Trump wants another round of tax cuts and other stimulus with stock markets at record highs and unemployment at 50 year lows. Fuel for the fire.
