So, before we get into the assessment, I would just like to highlight what really happened. So, there was a premium arbitrage between COMEX and London, wherein market participants sold the COMEX futures and bought the London physical and to mature the COMEX future part, the London physical stocks were brought into the COMEX inventories.
Over the weekend, leaders from major European economies agreed to increase defense spending, aiming to bolster the continent's ability to protect itself amid uncertainty over US NATO commitments.
US President Donald Trump has announced significant tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico. Warren Buffett described the tariffs as an 'act of war'. In response, Canada and Mexico plan to impose counter-tariffs. Trump also increased tariffs on China, with Beijing threatening retaliation. The situation is likely to escalate trade tensions globally.
Ajay Srivastava, CEO of Dimensions Corporate Finance, emphasizes that market recovery hinges on FIIs halting their sales. He advises investors to hold on to good stocks despite the current downturn, suggesting the hospitality and pharma sectors show resilience, while real estate struggles. Regulatory changes and sensible taxation are crucial for market revival.
Swaminathan Aiyar warns that the US-China trade war and global uncertainty will impact India's GDP and world trade, leading to slower economic growth. He predicts a potential severe fall in equity markets and emphasizes that India's role in this geopolitical shift is minimal, suggesting India should observe and adjust as needed.
I feel that what happened in the budget also, so that will also help the auto companies going ahead. So, there is fear that duty cut will happen, there will be competition coming in from outside India, that may happen.
Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with a cumulative 20% levy on China, are set to take effect at 10:31 a.m. IST on Tuesday. The U.S. president also announced reciprocal tariffs starting April 2.
Despite more than half of Nifty stocks being in bearish phases, the index is only down 16% due to the weightage of few major stocks like RIL, HDFC Bank, and TCS. Factors contributing to the decline include stretched valuations, underwhelming earnings, and persistent foreign investor selling.
