I just launched a wine app, which means I’ve spent the last six months thinking obsessively about one thing: how do you remove friction from decisions that shouldn’t be hard?
The answer taught me something bigger about rituals, and why so many of the ones we create at the end and beginning of the year fail us.
Here’s my founder story, but from the wine aisle.
Last December, I was standing in front of a wall of bottles, paralyzed. Not because I don’t like wine. I do. I was paralyzed because the entire experience was designed to make me feel small. The sommelier energy, the gatekeeping language, the implied message that if I couldn’t name the terroir, I didn’t deserve a good bottle. So I did what I always did: grabbed the same safe choice, went home, and told myself I’d “branch out next time.”
But here’s the founder insight I missed: I wasn’t actually going to branch out. The friction was too high. The stakes felt too real. So I’d repeat the same ritual, the same bottle, the same outcome, because at least it was safe.
This is exactly how most people approach their end-of-year and New Year rituals. They feel obligatory. Performative. Exhausting. You’re supposed to reflect deeply, set 10 ambitious goals, create a vision board, establish a meditation practice. It all sounds great in theory. In practice? Most people abandon their resolutions by January 15th.
Here’s why: we’re designing rituals for the person we think we should be, not the person we actually are.
As a founder, I’ve learned that the best products remove friction around what people actually want to do. The same principle applies to rituals. So instead of telling you to rethink your entire approach, here’s what actually works:
1. Audit Your Rituals for Performance vs. Authenticity
Before the New Year, write down your current rituals and practices. Your morning routine. Your goal-setting process. Your end-of-day wind-down. The commitments you’ve made to yourself.
Now ask: Which of these would I do if nobody was watching? Which ones feel authentic to how I actually want to live?
If your answer is “honestly, not many,” you’ve identified your problem. You’re living someone else’s ritual. I built Theodora because I realized I was performing wine expertise instead of just enjoying wine. Once I removed that performance, everything changed.
2. Replace Goal-Setting with Three Core Questions
Instead of your 10-goal action plan, try this framework:
What do I actually spend time on when nothing is required of me? (What you’re naturally drawn to.)
Who do I want to spend more time with? (What relationship matters.)
What outcome would make 2026 feel like a win, stripped of all performance? (What success actually looks like to you, not what it’s supposed to look like.)
Write these down. These three answers are your real ritual. Everything else is just context.
Most people I know abandon their New Year’s resolutions because those resolutions were designed by someone else’s standard of success. When you build from what actually matters to you, the rituals stick.
3. Identify Your Friction Points and Remove Them
As I was building the app, I asked myself: What stops people from choosing wine they love? The answer was friction: too many options, unclear labels, judgment if you didn’t know the language.
So I removed it. Simplified the decision. Let people be honest about what they wanted.
Do the same with your rituals. What gets in the way when youre setting your goals? Dont judge yourself for not being disciplined enough and instead build systems that are easy for you. Is it that you hate planning spreadsheets? Don’t use them. Is it that you feel guilty about not journaling? Don’t journal. Find the practice that actually works for your brain and your life, not the one that looks good on Instagram.
The people I respect most aren’t the ones with the fanciest routines. They’re the ones whose rituals are so well-designed for their actual life that the rituals almost disappear. They just work.
Here’s the bottom line for anyone building a 2026 strategy, whether that’s business goals, leadership development, or personal goals:
Stop designing your rituals for who you think you should be. Stop performing. Audit what’s actually working, build from what you genuinely care about, and remove the friction that’s keeping you stuck repeating last year’s choices.
Good rituals don’t feel like work. They feel like they were made for you, because they were.
As we head into the New Year, that’s the framework I’m offering: Stop trying to look the part. Start designing the rituals that actually move you forward. Everything else is just noise.
Porsche is recalling 173,538 vehicles in the U.S. as the rearview camera image may not display when the vehicle is placed in reverse, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Wednesday.
This is one of the largest single safety recalls issued by Porsche Cars North America in recent years, following a 2022 recall pertaining to missing headlight adjustment screw covers that affected 222,858 vehicles.
The current recall affects certain 2019-2025 Cayenne, Cayenne E-Hybrid, 2020-2025 911, Taycan, 2024-2025 Panamera, and 2025 Panamera E-Hybrid models.
The regulator flagged that the vehicles fail to comply with the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard’s requirement for rear visibility.
Dealers will update the driver assistance software, free of charge, the regulator said.
Earlier this year, the NHTSA also issued recalls of Hyundai Motor America, Ford Motor, Toyota Motor, and Chrysler vehicles over similar rearview camera issues that may fail to display, increasing the risk of a crash.
Ruchika Khanna and Aatreyee Dasgupta, Reuters
Below, Ben Swire shares five key insights from his new book, Safe Danger: An Unexpected Method for Sparking Connection, Finding Purpose, and Inspiring Innovation.
Ben is a former Design Lead at the innovation firm IDEO and co-founder of Make Believe Works, a team-building company that uses creative activities to accelerate connection, deepen trust, and fuel collaboration. His methods have helped organizations, from Fortune 500 companies to public school districts, build healthy, productive workplace cultures.
Whats the big idea?
Most of us think of risks as a threat to our safety. But what if theyre the best way to create the kind of safety that matters mosttrust, creativity, and connection? What if safety itself doesnt come from avoiding risk, but from taking small, smart risks together?
Listen to the audio version of this Book Biteread by Ben himselfbelow, or in the Next Big Idea App.
1. If youre ready to change but afraid to rock the boat, try a little Safe Danger.
Most people tend to think safety and danger are opposites. But its more useful to think of them as dance partners. Safety gives us solid footing; danger gives us movement. The emotional sweet spot between the twowhere you feel safe but challenged enough to discover something newis something I call Safe Danger.
I base entire team-building and community-building workshops around moments of safe danger. In that zone, you can take small, meaningful riskslike sharing a half-baked idea or owning up to an embarrassing shortcomingin ways that build trust, empathy, and connection.
The trick to making Safe Danger effective is not to ask a lot. This is not about big confessions or life changes, but rather asking enough to make future risks feel less intimidating. For example, I might base an activity around the person who inspired you to become who you are today. Or about a hard-earned life lesson. These ask you to risk sharing some personal details of your story, but are not so private as to be intrusive or uncomfortable. These are manageable risks.
The trick to making Safe Danger effective is not to ask a lot.
Every time you take a small risk and it goes well, your nervous system updates its prediction: Its safe to be a little braver here. Thats why Safe Danger works. It rewires fear into trust, step by step. And trust is contagious. When one person shares a personal story or asks an uncomfortable question, others feel permission to follow.
This isnt about bullet points. Its not about telling. Its about showing. Its about the feeling. Safe Danger works because you feel the risk, you feel it pay off, and your brain starts to build an appetite for more.
2. Build Safe Danger by leveling the playing field.
Most workplaces celebrate what people do, not who they are. Thats efficient, but brittle. If your value depends on flawless output, everyones going to hide their messier truthsthe exact truths teams need to share to collaborate and innovate and grow.
If you want to practice building a space that celebrates people for who they are, there are three principles I use in my workshops to create the safe danger that makes people feel able to lower their guard.
These three principles help level the playing field so that no one has to worry about embarrassment, and everyone is set up for success:
Intention over execution. When I have people make something in response to a prompt, I dont focus on what people make; I focus on why they made it. Whether someone has labeled themselves as creative or uncreative doesnt matter. Talent is out of peoples control. I reward the choices within their control: generosity, effort, and thoughtfulness. We dont grade the drawing; we use it to focus on the ideas its meant to express.
Curiosity over comparison. Instead of saying, Thats beautiful, which immediately builds a hierarchy and starts everyone else wondering if theirs is as good, Ill say, I see you used all bluewhat made you choose that? That neutral curiosity says, This is valuable, and I want to know more about how your mind works.
Journey over destination. The goal of having people make things is the story behind it: what mattered to you, what you noticed, what you felt. Safe Danger is not about the creation, its about what you learn in the making and what you reveal about yourself and others in the process.
When someone feels seen for how they show up, not what they produce, they feel safe to be more themselves. Suddenly, even the most resistant introvert or battle-worn cynic starts participating more fully. This is how you build psychological safety in minutes, not months: make it safe to be seen, and worth it to share.
3. Fun isnt enough for connection.
My specialty is helping people connect quickly and meaningfully. That falls under the heading of team building. Even though there can be lots of fun in the process, most traditional team-building activities dont actually build the team.
There are three pitfalls in a lot of team-building ideas:
Competition. Lots of team-building leans into competition because its a quick, easy way to get people fired up. But competition inherently divides people, pits them against each other, people start showing off, and most people lose. Not a great mindset for authentic connection.
Passivity. Guest speakers or cooking classes can be easy and pleasant, but people dont really contribute any value to the experience themselves. You never want someone to walk away thinking no one would have noticed if they had skipped that. Everyone needs to feel that they matter.
Old news. This simply means you carried old dynamics into a new room: fun stuff, like happy hours and escape rooms, where the loud people get loud, the quiet get quiet, and cliques stick together. People leave as they arrived, with no new insight or feeling.
Fun matters. It just isnt enough on its own. If nothing new was revealed about who we are, we didnt build a teamwe filled a calendar.
Thats why I like to use play and creativity to help create safe danger. Creativity is like an oven mitt. It lets you handle dangerous material without getting burned. People believe theyre talking about what they made, but theyre actually sharing their values, priorities, and perspectives on life. They get to be vulnerable without feeling threatened, to feel seen without being judged.
One of my favorite examples of this is an activity called Orchestra of Optimism. I ask people to think about how it feels for them to go from being stuck to being inspired. Then I have them sketch that out on a pice of papera tornado? An EKG? A plate of spaghetti? Next, I ask them to compose a 30-second soundtrack of that journey, using whatevers at handstaplers, coffee mugs, plants, carpet, its all fair game. The performances are short, wordless, and totally unique.
Everyones inner process is different, yet that individuality can get lost when we all use the same words to describe ourselves. But translating feelings into sound forces us out of our usual shortcuts. Its a little playful, a little vulnerable, and surprisingly revealing. In 15 minutes, youve learned something real about how each person navigates challengeinsight that transfers to work. With a little safe danger, fun stops being a diversion and becomes a delivery mechanism for understanding.
4. Soft stuff gets solid results.
Leaders often ask, Does this soft stuff, like trust and connection, actually move the numbers? Yes, because the soft stuff enables the hard stuff.
Psychological safety is the top predictor of team effectiveness. Amy Edmondsons research shows that teams in which people can speak up without fear learn faster and perform better. Gallups Engagement data consistently links high-trust cultures with better retention, productivity, and profitability. A major productivity study by the University of Warwick suggests that when people genuinely enjoy their work, output skyrockets. Building cultures around the soft stuff is not about being nice. Its about reducing the hidden tax of fear and loneliness so brains can do their best work.
Psychological safety is the top predictor of team effectiveness.
Ive seen this translate in rooms that care deeply about resultslike competitive sales teams. One leader told me after a Safe Danger activity, We still love to push each other, but this showed us the difference between competing against each other and competing with each other. That shift can unlock more pipeline suggestions, more honest post-mortems, and faster iteration.
If you want speed, use Safe Danger to build trust. If you want better ideas, use it to lower the social cost of being wrong. If you want accountability, use it to normalize admitting reality. Safe Danger activities arent a detour from performance; theyre a secret shortcut.
5. Small risks can yield big returns, no matter who you are.
Im a deep introvert with a healthy cynical streak. For years, I would have rather run for the hills than do a team building skit. But Safe Danger creates the space for everyoneeven skeptical introverts like meto engage. It works for anyone who wants to grow, connect, or stop feeling so alone at work or home.
Safe Danger can even adapt from the everyday to the extreme. Recently, I worked with a team ten days after a colleague was murdered in a workplace shooting. Theyd had time off and counseling, but this was their first time back in the office. At lunch, the mood was light but carefulpolite armor. Chit chat. But during the Safe Danger session, that all shifted with a simple prompt: How do you want to grow as a person this year? The first person held up a small, funny gift a colleague had made for him: I want to live differently after this. Shoulders dropped. People leaned in. The room became deep but not heavy, meaningful but not morose. It wasnt therapy; it was permission. After that, one by one, they all spoke about the changes they hoped to make and how they were going to help each other get there.
But you dont need a crisis. The principle is the same whether youre an introvert during a Tuesday stand-up or a team carrying unspoken weight: create a container where a small, honest risk is obviously worth it. Do that repeatedly, and you get compounding returns in trust, candor, and creativity.
Taking small, brave risks can make a real difference at work, home, or anywhere.
Anyone can practice Safe danger in daily life by taking one small risk that reassures your brain that honesty is worth it here. Taking small, brave risks can make a real difference at work, home, or anywhere. Pay attention to the moments that you hold back, like the joke you almost made or an honest thought you edited out. Those are opportunities to change course.
Most of us are living someone elses life. Were following expectations we inherited instead of choices we made ourselves. We learn early on to hide or diminish the qualities that make us unique in order to fit in. Safe Danger allows us to risk showing up as our real selves instead of someone elses version of us. Its a chance to rekindle our dimmed light, so we can rediscover and express the parts of ourselves that may have been scared into silence.
If youre not speaking with your own unique voice, the world is missing out. The people who mean the most to you, look up to you, and people you may never even meet, are all missing out if youre not standing out. The risk you take is never as big as the reward it returns.
Enjoy our full library of Book Bitesread by the authors!in the Next Big Idea App.
This article originally appeared in Next Big Idea Club magazine and is reprinted with permission.
A dismal year for the U.S. dollar is ending with signs of stabilization, but many investors believe the currency’s decline will resume next year as global growth picks up and the Fed eases further.
The U.S. dollar slumped more than 9% this year, against a basket of currencies, its worst showing in eight years, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, shrinking interest rate differentials with other major currencies, and as concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and political uncertainty swirled.
Investors broadly expect the dollar to weaken further as other major central banks stand pat or tighten policy and as a new Fed Chair takes chargea change that is expected to herald a more dovish tilt for the central bank.
The dollar typically falls when the Fed cuts rates as lower U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets less attractive to investors, reducing demand for the currency.
“The reality is we still do have an over-valued U.S. dollar from a fundamental standpoint,” Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at global corporate payments company Corpay, said.
Getting the dollar’s trajectory right is important for investors, given the currency’s central role in global finance. A weaker dollar boosts U.S. multinational earnings by increasing the value of overseas revenues when converted back to dollars, even as it enhances the attractiveness of international markets by providing an FX boost beyond the underlying asset performance.
Despite the dollar’s rebound in recent monthsthe dollar index is up 2% from its September lowFX strategists have largely maintained forecasts for a weaker dollar in 2026, a Reuters survey conducted from Nov. 28 to Dec. 3 showed.
The dollar’s real broad effective exchange rateits value relative to a large basket of foreign currencies, adjusted for inflationstood at 108.7 in October, down only slightly from a record high of 115.1 in January, showing that the U.S. currency still remains overvalued, according to Bank for International Settlements data.
Global growth
Expectations for dollar weakness hinge on converging global growth rates with the U.S. advantage expected to narrow as other major economies gain momentum.
“I think what’s different is that the rest of the world is just going to grow more next year,” said Anujeet Sareen, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global.
Germany’s fiscal stimulus, China’s policy support, and improved growth trajectories in the euro zone are expected to reduce the U.S. growth premium that has supported the dollar in recent years, investors said.
“When the rest of the world is starting to look better in terms of growth, that’s favorable for the dollar to continue to weaken,” Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi, the biggest European asset manager, said.
Even investors who believe the worst of the dollar’s decline is over say any major hit to U.S. growth could weigh on the currency.
“If you see any weakness at any point next year, that could probably be bad for markets, but that could definitely affect the dollar too,” said Jack Herr, investment analyst at mutual fund company GuideStone Funds, who doesn’t foresee major further dollar depreciation as his base case for 2026.
Central Bank divergence
Expectations for the Fed to continue cutting rates even as other major central banks hold rates or hike could also weigh on the dollar.
A sharply divided Fed cut interest rates in December, with the median policymaker view for next year calling for one more quarter-of-a-percentage-point cut.
With Jerome Powell set to step aside for President Trump’s next Fed chair appointment, the market may also price in a more accommodative central bank next year, given Trump’s push for lower rates.
Several of the known finalists for the Chair position, including White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and current Fed Governor Chris Waller, have advocated for interest rates to be lower than they are now.
“Although the market expects limited action from the Federal Reserve next year, we believe the trend is toward lower growth and weaker employment,” Eric Merlis, co-head of global markets, Citizens in Boston, who said they are short the U.S. dollar relative to other G10 currencies.
Meanwhile, traders reckon the European Central Bank will keep rates steady in 2026, though a rate hike is not completely ruled out. The ECB kept its policy rates steady at its December meeting and revised upwards some of its growth and inflation projections.
Not a straight line
Longer-term views for dollar weakness notwithstanding, a near-term rebound for the dollar is not to be ruled out, investors cautioned.
Continued investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the resulting capital flows into U.S. equities could provide near-term support for the dollar.
The boost to U.S. growth stemming from the reopening of the government after this year’s shutdown and from the tax cuts passed this year, could lift the dollar in the first quarter, Brandywine’s Sareen said.
“But we’re inclined to think that that’s not likely a sustained driver of the dollar for the year,” he said.
Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Reuters
The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage fell to its lowest level of 2025 this week, an encouraging sign for prospective home buyers.
The average long-term mortgage rate dipped to 6.15% from 6.18% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Wednesday. That’s the lowest average long-term rate since October 3, 2024, when it dipped to 6.12% before shooting back up. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.91%.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, fell this week to 5.44% from 5.50% the previous week. A year ago, it averaged 6.13%, Freddie Mac said.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserves interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The 10-year yield was at 4.14% at midday Wednesday, down a touch from last weeks 4.15%.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has been mostly holding steady in recent weeks since Oct. 30 when it dropped to 6.17%, which at the time was its lowest level in more than a year.
Mortgage rates began easing in July in anticipation of a series of Fed rate cuts, which began in September and continued this month.
The Fed doesnt set mortgage rates, but when it cuts its short-term rate that can signal lower inflation or slower economic growth ahead, which can drive investors to buy U.S. government bonds. That can help lower yields on long-term U.S. Treasurys, which can result in lower mortgage rates.
Even so, Fed rate cuts dont always translate into lower mortgage rates.
Home shoppers who can afford to pay cash or finance at current mortgage rates are in a more favorable position than they were a year ago. Home listings are up sharply from 2024, and many sellers have resorted to lowering their initial asking price as homes take longer to sell, according to data from Realtor.com.
Still, affordability remains a challenge for aspiring homeowners, especially first-time buyers who dont have equity from an existing home to put toward a new home purchase. Uncertainty over the economy and job market are also keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes rose in November from the previous month, but slowed compared to a year earlier for the first time since May despite average long-term mortgage rates holding near their low point for the year. Through the first 11 months of this year, home sales are down 0.5% compared to the same period last year.
Economists generally forecast that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will remain slightly above 6% next year.
Matt Ott, AP business writer
U.S. stocks are slipping in afternoon trading Wednesday as Wall Street closes out a banner year for markets driven by both optimism and uncertainty.
The S&P 500 was down 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 100 points, or 0.2%, as of 1:47 p.m. Eastern time. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.1%. The stock indexes are coming off a three-day losing streak.
Trading is expected to be light ahead of the New Years Day holiday, when markets will be closed. With just one trading day left before the year ends, most big investors have closed out their positions for the year and trading volume has been very thin.
Even after their mini post-Christmas pullback, the indexes are on pace for strong gains for the year.
The S&P 500, which set 39 record highs in 2025, is up about 17% for the year, its third straight double-digit annual gain. The Nasdaq is up 21.1% and the Dow has gained 13.4%.
Wall Streets 2025 gains came as investors embraced the optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and its potential for boosting profits across almost all sectors. But the market had no shortage of turbulence along the way amid President Donald Trumps on-again, off-again tariffs on imported goods worldwide and uncertainty over the trajectory of interest rates.
The S&P 500 plunged nearly 5% on April 3, its worst day since the 2020 COVID crash. It fell another 6% a day later, after Chinas response raised fears of an escalating trade war. Worries also gripped the U.S. Treasury market.
Trump eventually put his tariffs on pause and negotiated agreements with countries to lower his proposed tariff rates on their imports, helping calm investors nerves.
Strong profit reports from companies and three cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve also helped drive markets higher.
Still, the AI frenzy that drove markets in 2025 did not come without concerns. Chief among them is the worry that artificial intelligence technology may not produce enough profits and productivity to make all the investment worth it. That could keep the pressure on AI stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom, which were responsible for much of the markets gains this year.
And its not just AI stocks that critics say are too pricey. Stocks across the market still look expensive after their prices climbed faster than profits.
On top of concerns that stocks are overvalued, the ongoing impact of the wide-ranging U.S.-led trade war threatens to add more fuel to inflation in the U.S. Despite the Fed cutting rates over concerns about the labor market, inflation remains solidly above the central banks 2% target.
Wall Street is betting that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its next meeting in January.
Traders got an update on the state of the job market Wednesday. The Labor Department reported that fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week with layoffs remaining low despite a weakening labor market.
All of the sectors in the S&P 500 were in the red Wednesday, with technology stocks among the biggest drags on the market. Western Digital fell 2.1% and Micron Technology was down 1.5%.
Treasury yields were mostly higher in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.16% from 4.13% late Tuesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which moves more closely with expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do, rose to 3.47% from 3.45%.
Trading in precious metals continued to be volatile as the year winds down. Silver swung back to a big loss, giving back 9.1% after Tuesday’s gain of more than 10%. Following Friday’s 7.7% jump, silver lost nearly 9% on Monday. It’s still up more than 140% this year.
Gold was down 1.2%, but is still up about 64% in 2025.
U.S. benchmark crude slipped 0.7% to $57.55 per barrel. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, fell 0.6% to $60.97 per barrel.
Global stock markets including those in Germany, Japan and South Korea were closed Wednesday for the New Years holidays, while trading was mixed in those that remained open.
Alex Veiga, AP business writer
Americans filed the fewest new jobless claims in a month last week, and while the number of unemployed workers collecting relief payments has eased from recent highs, there is little indication of a break from the weak hiring environment that settled in over the course of President Donald Trump‘s first year back at the White House.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits for the week ended December 27 dropped unexpectedly by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000, the lowest since the end of November, Labor Department data showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would rise to 220,000. The report was published a day early because of the New Year’s Day holiday.
Claims have been volatile in recent weeks amid challenges in adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations ahead of the holiday season. The labor market remains locked in what economists and policymakers describe as a “no hire, no fire” mode, and the final report of 2025 was largely emblematic of that.
Though the economy remains resilient, with gross domestic product increasing at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, the labor market has almost stalled. Labor demand and supply have been impacted by Trump’s dramatic policy shifts since he began his second presidency in January, most notably his steep import tariffs and his aggressive immigration crackdown that has limited worker supply, economists say.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell by 47,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.866 million during the week ending December 20, the claims report showed.
“The drop in initial unemployment claims to 199,000 in the week of Christmas was likely another seasonal-adjustment distortion,” John Ryding, chief economic adviser at Brean Capital, said.
“Bigger picture, we have not seen a meaningful increase in layoffs as signaled by these data in 2025 with the average level of claims in the year at 226,100 compared to 223,000 in 2024.”
Continuing claims have eased from recent highs
Continuing claims had neared the 2 million mark in late October but have eased off some as the year wound down and a record-long federal government shutdown ended in mid-November.
While off that recent peak, continuing claims are somewhat higher than they were at this time last year, and at a level that aligns with a survey from the Conference Board last week showing consumers’ perceptions of the labor market deteriorated this month to levels last seen in early 2021.
Hiring has slowed substantially in 2025, averaging just 55,000 new jobs created a month through November, roughly a third of the pace in 2024, and the breadth of hiring has narrowed as employers awaited greater clarity on Trump’s policies and as they gauge their workforce needs against the rapid rollout of productivity-enhancing artificial intelligence tools.
The slow hiring pace has brought job creation to near what economists estimate is the break-even rate that keeps the jobless rate from rising. The unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.6% in November, though part of the rise was because of technical factors related to the 43-day government shutdown.
A jobless rate tracker from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests it remained unchanged in December at 4.6%. The Labor Department, which was unable to produce a jobless rate for October because of the shutdown, will publish employment figures for December on January 9.
Still, the number of Americans on jobless benefits rolls as a share of the U.S. labor force is just 1.1% and has changed little over the course of this year even as the formal unemployment rate has climbed from 3.7% in January to November’s 4.6%. The lack of correlation in movement between the two data points is very unusual, and stands as further evidence for some economists of the reluctance among employers to cut headcount in an environment of still-tight labor supply.
What does it mean for the Fed?
The unusual attributes of the current job market are central to the debate underway at the Federal Reserve about whether to cut interest rates further to forestall further weakening of employment or to hold borrowing costs steady to keep pressure on inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
The U.S. central bank this month cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 3.50% to 3.75% range, but signaled rates were unlikely to fall in the near term as policymakers await clarity on the direction of the labor market and inflation, which has drifted upward over the year thanks to pressure on goods prices from Trump’s tariffs.
Minutes of the December 9-10 meeting released on Tuesday showed the depth of the divide among policymakers. Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged “the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged,” given the different risks facing the U.S. economy.
For Fed officials, much hinges on what a blitz of data coming in the early weeks of 2026 reveals about the economy’s direction.
Some of those policymakers who were either opposed or skeptical of the most recent cut “suggested that the arrival of a considerable amount of labor market and inflation data over the coming intermeeting period would be helpful on making judgments about whether a rate reduction was warranted,” the meeting minutes said.
Dan Burns, Reuters
Flu season is here and its shaping up to be a bad one.
Cases of the flu are rising sharply across the country and thats when looking at data collected right before the holiday.
In the U.S., the CDC estimates 7.5 million flu cases so far this season, with 81,000 hospitalizations and more than 3,000 deaths. So far this season eight children have died from flu-related causes according to the CDC, with five of those deaths reported this week.
According to CDC data for the week ending on December 20, 32 states reported high or very high levels of illness with flu symptoms, up from 17 states reporting that level of flu activity the week prior. New York, New Jersey, South Carolina, Louisiana and Colorado are the states with the most extreme levels of flu-like illness, with many neighboring states also reporting very high levels.
New York just broke a record by reporting its highest load of flu cases in a single week. Its the hospitalizations right now that are getting my attention, New York State health commissioner James McDonald told Albanys CBS6. The weekend of December 20 we reported over 3,600 people in the hospital from the flu in New York state. Why thats important is that was more than the peak of last year.
What were seeing with this strain of flu is more contagious, more severe disease, McDonald said, adding that it isnt too late to get the flu vaccine, especially children and older adults. In New York, 40% of people hospitalized from the flu are older than 75, but infants are the second largest group requiring hospitalization.
Part of what is making this season shape up to be a brutal one for the flu is the emergence of a new variant of the virus, known as subclade K (a subclade refers to a subgroup of a strain of a virus). Subclade K is a newer subtype of influenza A/H3N2 that emerged over the summer, complicating the protection from the flu vaccine, which was formulated using different reference strains of the virus from subclade J. Still, that situation isnt completely uncommon the vaccine and the dominant strain sometimes mismatch from year to year.
While the term super flu is getting tossed around already, the vaccine formulation still likely provides some protection against the dominant subclade K form of the virus, as well as offering a buffer for the better-matched but less dominant strain.
A perfect storm
Seasonal illness spikes around the holidays each year as people travel to see loved ones and gather inside to celebrate. This year is no different, and the flu is joined by a lineup of other seasonal illnesses that includes COVID and norovirus, which causes vomiting and diarrhea. Other serious and extremely contagious illnesses like whooping cough and measles are also on the uptick in the U.S. this year, as waning vaccination rates take their toll on public health.
Vaccine skepticism, once a fringe belief, now sits much closer toward the center of political beliefs in the U.S. Avowed vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr now shapes U.S. health policy from the very top, after building a career from promoting lucrative anti-vaccine causes.
Another top Trump health official, Dr. Mehmet Oz, referred to the flu vaccine as controversial in an appearance on Newsmax this week, pointing viewers toward MAHA tips like taking zinc, eating well and coughing into the crook of your arm to protect against a flu infection. Oz called sleep the most important tool of all in protecting against a flu infection, failing to recommend the flu vaccine to the networks viewers.
Flu is always a problem. Every year theres a flu vaccine. It doesnt always work very well. Thats why its been controversial of late, Oz said. But like many illnesses, the best news out there is if you can take care of yourself, so that when you do end up running into the flu, you can overwhelm it.
An explosion of vaccine misinformation in recent years coupled with Covid-era fatigue has created the perfect storm for a public health crisis in the U.S., and were only just beginning to see the consequences.
Its the sort of thing you might not notice until it really matters, but the U.S. Postal Service recently changed how it defines the postmark on a piece of mailwarning that the postmark date is not a reliable indicator of when you actually mailed something.
If youre the sort of person who waits until the last minute to send time-sensitive mail, that means youll need to stand in line at your local post office and request a manual postmark when dropping off your mail.
While the way mail is postmarked hasnt undergone some major shift recently, the postal service set out earlier this year to clarify earlier what a postmark means and how the process works.
By clarifying, the beleaguered agency delivered a reality check of sortsand warned that an issue many people didnt even realize was an issue could become more common under an initiative its implemented to optimize mail delivery, and particularly in rural areas, as part of its Delivering for America 10-year plan.
Postmarks applied at originating processing facilities have never provided a perfectly reliable indicator of the date on which the Postal Service first accepted possession of a mailpiece, the agency said in a federal filing from last month. To the extent that customers currently have this view of the postmark, it does not reflect the realities of postal operations.
Perhaps worse yet? Buying postage online or at a kiosk in the post office, doesnt overcome the postmark issue as that date merely shows when the postage was printed and not when it was actually in the hands of the USPS.
CONCERNS ABOUT MAIL-IN BALLOTS
When the agency first proposed clarifying the process back in August, there was a mandatory public comment period that elicited only 130 comments. But many of those comments focused on the implications for mail-in voting, which has become especially prevalent in the post-pandemic era.
In the 2024 presidential election, mail-in voting accounted for 30.3% of the turnout, according to a survey conducted by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. That was down from 43% in the 2020 election.
By warning of a likely timing gap between the date when you drop off mail and when its counted as received, the U.S. Postal Service has shifted some of the responsibility back on mailers. In the federal filing, it reiterated a common-sense measure that voters should mail their completed ballot at least one week before it must be received or else queue up at the post office for that manual postmark.
OTHER CHANGES COMING IN 2026
But theres some (hopefully) welcomed news for people who dread a visit to the post office. In September, the agency announced that a modernization project will continue in 2026 that will see many lobbies undergo much-needed renovations.
These projects, however, come at a cost.
And shipping prices are going up once again, though not (yet) for stamps.
After hiking shipping rates by as much as 7.6% in July, another big increase is coming on January 18. The cost to ship the lightest-weight package domestically will soon cost $7.76, a 7.8% increase from the current starting rates of $7.20.
Chinese factory activity expanded for the first time in eight months in December, as orders picked up ahead of holidays and builders rushed to finish projects, according to surveys released Wednesday.The official purchasing managers index for manufacturing, a monthly survey of companies, rose to 50.1 this month, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. That was just above the 50 cut off for expansion versus contraction on a scale up to 100. Another, private sector, survey also was at 50.1 for December.The better-than-expected readings partly reflect easing pressure due to an extended truce in trade tensions with the U.S. They also suggest manufacturers ramped up production ahead of New Year holidays, when many companies close for days. China’s Lunar New Year falls in mid-February this year.In comments to a new year’s gathering carried Wednesday by China’s state media, President Xi Jinping, vowed to promote “high-quality development” and to carry out “more positive macroeconomic policies” while ensuring social harmony and stability.The world’s second largest economy is forecast to grow at a pace just below the official target of about 5% this year, supported by strong activity in high-tech industries and exports. The official PMI for high-tech manufacturing stood at 52.5 in December, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.The report said the PMIs for both equipment manufacturing and the consumer goods industry reached 50.4.The separate report by RatingDog, a Chinese credit research and analysis company based in the southern city of Shenzhen, said that despite an increase in overall orders, new export sales fell slightly and hiring weakened.“Overall, the manufacturing sector regained growth at the end of 2025,” RatingDog’s founder Yao Yu said in a statement. “However, the improvement was marginal, with the impact of promotions and new products appearing impulse-driven and their sustainability requiring observation.”The National Statistic Bureau said the PMI measures for food, textiles, clothing and electronics were above a relatively strong 53.However, while large manufacturers increased their output, factory activity for the small and mid-sized enterprises that account for the lion’s share of employment in China remained in contractionary territory. As consumers cut back on spending, conditions for retailers and restaurants also deteriorated, the report said.Some economists believe China’s economy is growing more slowly than official figures suggest. Its leaders are grappling with long-term challenges including a yearslong slump in the country’s property sector and excess capacity in many industries, including automaking, that has led to damaging price wars.Higher costs for raw materials, especially for metals, has put pressure on company profit margins, the RatingDog report said. It noted that exporters had raised prices for the first time in three months to help offset those higher costs.The upturn in activity may be short-lived as it appears to be helped by a slight increase in government spending, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report.“The big picture is that the structural headwinds from the property downturn and industrial overcapacity are set to persist in 2026 and there appears to be limited appetite among policymakers for a big increase in demand-side stimulus,” he said.
Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
