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If youre flying later this month, you may need to temper your expectations now: The major U.S. airlines are warning that flight disruptions could persist even after the government shutdown ends. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history seemingly has an end in sight now that the Senate passed legislation Monday night to end the shutdown. But the recent flurry of canceled and delayed flights could continue, warned a trade group made up of the major U.S.-based airlinesAmerican, Southwest, Delta, and Unitedas well as UPS and FedEx. Airlines reduced flight schedules cannot immediately bounce back to full capacity right after the government reopens, Airlines for America said in a statement on Monday. It will take time, and there will be residual effects for days. STRAIN ON AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS Federal workers that include air traffic controllers and TSA agents who have continued working during the shutdown have seen two consecutive zero-dollar paycheck cycles. And thats led to some employees calling out sick, taking on extra work elsewhereor even quitting their jobs altogether because of the stress the shutdown has inflicted. Thats unlike whats happened during past government shutdowns, and notably the one in 2019, Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, told CNN last week. Further compounding issues, he said, is that there are 400 fewer air traffic controllers employed today than during the shutdown during Trumps first time in office. Controllers are resigning every day now because of the prolonged nature of the shutdown. And following the 2019 shutdown, it took up to two and a half months for these employees to get their back pay, Daniels told CNN. President Donald Trump threatened on Monday to dock the pay of those air traffic controllers who have called out during the shutdown with a blanket instruction to report to work immediately. The president also said he would recommend a bonus of $10,000 for those air traffic controllers who didnt take any time off during the shutdown in a post on Truth Social. Trump also went so far as to encourage some government employees to quit. If you want to leave service in the near future, please do not hesitate to do so, with NO payment or severance of any kind! he wrote. FOCUS ON THANKSGIVING Air travel disruptions have been an increased focus of his administration in recent days. On Sunday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy issued a dire outlook, warning that a substantial number of Americans wont make it home for Thanksgiving on Nov. 27. In 2024, AAA projected that 5.84 million would fly domestically for the holiday, about 7% of the total number of travelers. Another aviation and aerospace trade group, Modern Skies, put this years Thanksgiving travel estimate much higher, at 31 million. In an open letter to Congress on Tuesday, the group of 50-plus aviation and aerospace companies, organizations, and unions, urged an immediate end to the shutdown. The job of keeping aviation safe and secure is tough every day, but forcing federal employees to do it without pay is unacceptable, Modern Skies said in the letter published in The Washington Post. Without immediate government action, the federal employees charged with the safety of our aviation system are missing paychecks again this week. WIDESPREAD DISRUPTIONS During the shutdown that has stretched on for six weeks, more than 5 million travelers have been affected by airline staffing issues, according to Airlines for America. Reductions to flight capacity at 40 major airports began last week, with the amount expected to ramp up to 10% by this Friday. But cancellations have already topped that amount according to reporting by CNBC. On Sunday, 10.2% of scheduled flights were cancelled, followed by 8.7% on Monday, the news outlet reported, citing data from aviation-data firm Cirium. Though the strain of the government shutdown has been widespreadincluding halting SNAP benefits for 41 million Americansits been especially evident at airports. It took as long as three hours last week for travelers to get through the TSA lines at the Houston airport, according to reporting by CBS News. And a video went viral in recent days of a frustrated pilot who works for Southwest Airlines urging passengers on a flight to call their senators to end the shutdown. The House of Representatives could vote on the legislation approved by the Senate to end the shutdown as soon as Wednesday, following the Veterans Day holiday.
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E-Commerce
You may see more smiles next time you walk into a Target. That’s because the big box retailer is hoping to provide an “elevated” customer experience with it’s new “10-4” policy, requiring staffers out on the floor to smile, wave, and welcome customers within 10 feetand greet those just 4 feet away, USA Today reported. Fast Company has reached out to Target for comment. The policy comes less than three weeks before Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, which officially kicks off the busiest and most profitable time of the year. Many stores, including Target, have already begun to roll out their Black Friday sales this year. Target’s early 2025 Black Friday sales first dropped the first week in November and continue this month online, with week-long deals every Sunday through December 24. That’s as two-thirds of Americans plan to start holiday shopping before Black Friday this year, according to August data from consulting firm McKinsey & Company. Looking ahead, Target’s official Black Friday sale drops online on Thanksgiving day, Thursday, November 27 and in-store on Friday, November 28, ending on Tuesday, December 2. Shares of Target (NYSE: TGT) were up nearly 1% in midday trading at $91.40. Target financials Target Corporation’s second quarter earnings results beat expectations with $25.21 billion in revenue, versus an expected $24.93 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.05 versus an expected $2.03. However, it posted in-store and online traffic declines due both to inflation and consumer economic concerns, as well as boycotts triggered by its rollback on DEI. The Minneapolis-based retailer announced in October it was cutting 8% of its corporate workforce, or 1,800 positions.
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E-Commerce
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Speaking at ResiDay 2025 on Friday, FHFA Director Bill Pulte broke news, stating that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will remain in conservatorshipeasing industry fears that an exit could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Instead, he said the government plans to sell up to 5% of their shares back to the public. Pulte added, I anticipate that the president will make a decision either this quarter or early next year as it relates to the IPO. Pulte wasnt done breaking news. Amid strained housing affordability, President Donald Trump and Pulte announced on X.com on Saturday that theyre working on a 50-year mortgage option to help lower some homebuyers initial monthly payments. For todays piece, Im going to run through 11-data backed thoughts on 50-year mortgages. Before we get into the article, we should note that we dont know the finer details of the option nor if theyll actually go through with it. 1. A 50-year mortgage would come with a higher interest rate Lenders charge more for longer-term loans because they take on additional risk. The further out the repayment period stretches, the greater the uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and credit risk. Historically, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has averaged about 57 basis points higher than the 15-year rate. If a 50-year option were introduced at scale, borrowers could expect an even steeper premiumlikely adding another fraction of a percentage point to the rate in exchange for lower monthly payments. 2. Logan Mohtashami estimates that a 50-year mortgage would carry a rate roughly 42 to 57 basis points higher than the 30-year Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, tells ResiClub that he estimates that a 50-year mortgage would carry an interest rate roughly 42 to 57 basis points higher than the standard 30-year fixed mortgage. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, as tracked by Freddie Mac, came in at 6.22% last week. At that level, the average 50-year fixed mortgage rate would be somewhere between 6.64% to 6.79%, assuming Mohtashamis additional premium is correct. 3. The monthly principal and interest on a 50-year mortgage would be a little less than on a 30-year The core appeal of a 50-year loan is obvious: lower monthly payments. Stretching the repayment period over half a century spreads the same principal across 20 additional years, trimming the monthly cost. For example, on a $400,000 mortgage with a 6.22% interest rate, the monthly principal and interest payment would be roughly $2,455 on a 30-year mortgage. A 50-year mortgage at a 6.64% interest rate would lower that to around $2,297a savings of about $158 per month, or roughly 7% less. That could be meaningful for some homebuyers on the edge of affordability. However, its far smaller than the monthly payment reduction that comes from moving from a 15-year mortgage to a 30-year mortgage. I truly empathize with the challenges that young homebuyers face as they embark on their journey to purchase their first home. They finance over 90% of their home purchases, and mortgage rates remain high compared to what they saw from 2011-2022. I applaud the administrations efforts to support young homebuyers this year; their intentions are commendable. Nevertheless, I worry that raising loan amortization will create other challenges. Higher levels of total interest payments and less equity buildup, all for just a few hundred dollars in savingssomething a mere 0.50% to 1.00% decrease in mortgage rates could achieve instead from today’s levels It’s important to recognize that the housing market is already heavily subsidized through the 30-year fixed-rate loan and favorable tax policies. As the market naturally shifts toward favoring buyers, we are seeing an increase in supply and a slowdown in [home] price growth. Historically, this is how the [housing] market has found its balance in other periods after big increases in prices such as we saw from 1943-1947 and 1974-1979the aftermath of those periods didn’t have a housing bubble crash in prices, but in time affordability did get better. – Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst of HousingWire, tells ResiClub My sense is that this is mostly policy theater. The fact is that prices and rates are high and theres not much policy can do about that. Shifting from an already very long 30-year term to 0-year would be pretty marginal for monthlies and would of course do nothing to help lower down payments. – Housing analyst Aziz Sunderji, the founder of Home Economics, tells ResiClub 4. A borrower would pay substantially more in total interest using a 50-year mortgage The total interest paid over 50 years balloons. On that same $400,000 loan example, a 30-year borrower would pay roughly $483,000 in interest by the time its paid off. A 50-year borrower? Closer to $980,000roughly half a million dollars more in financing cost. That gap is the trade-off between short-term affordability and long-term efficiency. The 50-year mortgage dramatically slows the pace of principal repayment, meaning homeowners stay leveraged for longer and build wealth through amortization much more slowly. 5. The vast majority of 50-year borrowers wouldnt actually stick around for 50 years A common online criticism of the 50-year mortgage is that it would leave borrowers paying well into retirementor possibly never living to see the loan fully paid off. Im not going to say thats an invalid concern. But its important to keep in mind that most mortgages already dont reach full term. Even with a standard 30-year fixed mortgage, few homeowners stay put long enough to make the final payment. The typical U.S. homeowner stays in their house for 11.8 years, according to Redfin. 6. A 50-year mortgage borrower builds equity much slower In the early years of any mortgage, most of the payment goes toward interest. Stretch that loan to 50 years, and it takes much longer before principal repayment meaningfully accelerates. In the hypothetical above, after 10 years, a 30-year borrower will have paid off roughly 20% of their balance. The 50-year borrower? Only about 9%. That means homeowners could feel stuck for longerparticularly if home prices flatten or dip. It could also make refinancing or selling in the early years trickier, since equity cushions take more time to form. 7. If the 50-year borrower invests their monthly payment savings, it makes up for some of the slower principal payoff There is a counterargument: If 50-year borrowers invest their monthly payment savings (the difference between what theyd pay for a 15-year or 30-year mortgage), those returns could help offset the slower equity build. In a ResiClub analysis, assuming a $400,000 mortgage, 2% annual home price appreciation, and 7% annual investment returns, the 50-year borrower who invests their monthly savings does start to narrow the gap over time. The 15-year borrower builds wealth fastest through home equity, but over decades, the invested difference can partly close the wealth delta. Of course, that requires actually investing the savings. 8. In a weak home price appreciation market, a 50-year mortgage is less appealing If home price growth remains modest for the rest of the decade while national affordability slowly improves, the 50-year mortgage becomes less appealing, according to ResiClubs analysis. In a higher home price growth environmentlike the 2012 to 2022 perioda 50-year loan becomes more compelling for borrowers whose choice is either buying with a 50-year mortgage (because they cant afford a 15- or 30-year option) or continuing to rent and build no equity at all. 9. Rolling out a 50-year mortgage could create some additional housing demandbut its unlikely to be anything dramatic A 50-year mortgage could pull a modest number of buyers off the sidelines. But dont expect a huge housing demand surge. Given the math and housing backdrop (soft national levels of appreciation), the product would likely remain niche. 10. The public isnt crazy about the idea Early polling suggests the 50-year mortgage isnt winning hearts. In a ResiClub poll conducted November 8, 2025, over 2,300 respondents on X.com weighed in on the Trump-Pulte announcemnt. A majority said their reaction was either unfavorable or very unfavorable. 11. The lackluster public response to the 50-year mortgage rollout decreases the likelihood of it happening Without strong political or market enthusiasm, the odds of a true nationwide 50-year mortgage rolling out in the next few months remain low. For it to gain traction, it would require both regulatory approval and political will. The administration tested the watersand given the response, it may stop short of fully implementing it.
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E-Commerce
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