 |
|
|
|||||
This Presidents’ Day, Ive been thinking about George Washingtonnot at his finest hour, but possibly at his worst. In 1754, a 22-year-old Washington marched into the wilderness surrounding Pittsburgh with more ambition than sense. He volunteered to travel to the Ohio Valley on a mission to deliver a letter from Robert Dinwiddie, governor of Virginia, to the commander of French troops in the Ohio territory. This military mission sparked an international war, cost him his first command and taught him lessons that would shape the American Revolution. As a professor of early American history who has written two books on the American Revolution, Ive learned that Washingtons time spent in the Fort Duquesne area taught him valuable lessons about frontier warfare, international diplomacy and personal resilience. A young George Washington was thrust into the dense, contested wilderness of the Ohio River Valley as a land surveyor for real estate development companies in Virginia. [Image: Henry Hintermeister/Wiki Commons] The mission to expel the French In 1753, Dinwiddie decided to expel French fur trappers and military forces from the strategic confluence of three mighty waterways that crisscrossed the interior of the continent: the Allegheny, Monongahela and Ohio rivers. This confluence is where downtown Pittsburgh now stands, but at the time it was wilderness. King George II authorized Dinwiddie to use force, if necessary, to secure lands that Virginia was claiming as its own. As a major in the Virginia provincial militia, Washington wanted the assignment to deliver Dinwiddies demand that the French retreat. He believed the assignment would secure him a British army commission. Washington received his marching orders on Oct. 31, 1753. He traveled to Fort Le Boeuf in northwestern Pennsylvania and returned a month later with a polite but firm no from the French. Dinwiddie promoted Washington from major to lieutenant colonel and ordered him to return to the Ohio River Valley in April 1754 with 160 men. Washington quickly learned that French forces of about 500 men had already constructed the formidable Fort Duquesne at the forks of the Ohio. It was at this point that he faced his first major test as a military leader. Instead of falling back to gather more substantial reinforcements, he pushed forward. This decision reflected an aggressive, perhaps naive, brand of leadership characterized by a desire for action over caution. Washingtons initial confidence was high. He famously wrote to his brother that there was something charming in the sound of whistling bullets. The Jumonville affair and an international crisis Perhaps the most controversial moment of Washingtons early leadership occurred on May 28, 1754, about 40 miles south of Fort Duquesne. Guided by the Seneca leader Tanacharisonknown as the Half Kingand 12 Seneca warriors, Washington and his detachment of 40 militiamen ambushed a party of 35 French Canadian militiamen led by Ensign Joseph Coulon de Jumonville. The Jumonville affair lasted only 15 minutes, but its repercussions were global. Ten of the French, including Jumonville, were killed. Washingtons inability to control his Native American alliesthe Seneca warriors executed Jumonvilleexposed a critical gap in his early leadership. He lacked the ability to manage the volatile intercultural alliances necessary for frontier warfare. Washington also allowed one enemy soldier to escape to warn Fort Duquesne. This skirmish effectively ignited the French and Indian War, and Washington found himself at the center of a burgeoning international crisis. Defeat at Fort Necessity Washington then made the fateful decision to dig in and call for reinforcements instead of retreating in the face of inevitable French retaliation. Reinforcements arrived: 200 Virginia militiamen and 100 British regulars. They brought news from Dinwiddie: congratulations on Washingtons victory and his promotion to colonel. His inexperience showed in his design of Fort Necessity. He positioned the small, circular palisade in a meadow depression, where surrounding wooded high ground allowed enemy marksmen to fire down with impunity. Worse still, Tanacharison, disillusioned with Washingtons leadership and the British failure to follow through with promised support, had already departed with his warriors weeks earlier. When the French and their Native American allies finally attacked on July 3, heavy rains flooded the shallow trenches, soaking gunpowder and leaving Washingtons men vulnerable inside their poorly designed fortification. Illustration showing George Washington signing the articles of capitulation at Fort Necessity during the French and Indian Wars, on July 3, 1754. [Photo: Interim Archives/Getty Images] The battle of Fort Necessity was a grueling, daylong engagement in the mud and rain. Approximately 700 French and Native American allies surrounded the combined force of 460 Virginian militiamen and British regulars. Despite being outnumbered and outmaneuvered, Washington maintained order among his demoralized troops. When French commander Louis Coulon de VilliersJumonvilles brotheroffered a truce, Washington faced the most humbling moment of his young life: the necessity of surrender. His decision to capitulate was a pragmatic act of leadership that prioritized the survival of his men over personal honor. The surrender also included a stinging lesson in the nuances of diplomacy. Because Washington could not read French, he signed a document that used the word l’assassinat, which translates to assassination, to describe Jumonvilles death. This inadvertent admission that he had ordered the assassination of a French diplomat became propaganda for the French, teaching Washington the vital importance of optics in international relations. Lessons that forged a leader The 1754 campaign ended in a full retreat to Virginia, and Washington resigned his commission shortly thereafter. Yet, this period was essential in transforming Washington from a man seeking personal glory into one who understood the weight of responsibility. He learned that leadership required more than courageit demanded understanding of terrain, cultural awareness of allies and enemies, and political acumen. The strategic importance of the Ohio River Valley, a gateway to the continental interior and vast fur-trading networks, made these lessons all the more significant. Ultimately, the hard lessons Washington learned at the threshold of Fort Duquesne in 1754 provided the foundational experience for his later role as commander in chief of the Continental Army. The decisions he made in Pennsylvania and the Ohio wilderness, including the impulsive attack, the poor choice of defensive ground and the diplomatic oversight, were the very errors he would spend the rest of his military career correcting. Though he did not capture Fort Duquesne in 1754, the young George Washington left the woods of Pennsylvania with a far more valuable prize: the tempered, resilient spirit of a leader who had learned from his mistakes. Christopher Magra is a professor of American history at the University of Tennessee. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Category:
E-Commerce
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Economic forecasting has never been easy, and it becomes even more challenging in the face of unprecedented events like COVID-19 lockdowns and extraordinary levels of fiscal and monetary intervention. This was followed by a rapid cycle of interest rate hikes, adding further complexity. Look no further than the fact that for three consecutive years (2022, 2023, and 2024) economic forecasts at large significantly underestimated mortgage rates. Recently, however, forecasters have fared better. Among the 17 mortgage rate forecasts rounded up by ResiClub heading into 2025, the average prediction was that 30-year fixed mortgage rates would average 6.33% in Q4 2025. At the time we published that roundup, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was sitting at 7.03%. What happened? The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended up averaging 6.23% in Q4 2025. For our 2026 mortgage rate roundup, ResiClub collected 21 mortgage rate forecasts. Some were publicly available, though most were gathered through the ResiClub 2026 Housing Economist Survey, which we fielded in December 2025. Rather than asking only about Q4, we asked respondents to provide their forecast for the full 2026 calendar year. While ResiClub approaches rate forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticismfor example, if the labor market were to unexpectedly weaken, rates could drop more than anticipatedthere is still value in understanding where economic models predict mortgage rates will head. Below are 21 mortgage rate forecasts (sorted from highest to lowest). Hunter Housing Economics: The research firm predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.6% in 2026. Housing economist Brad Hunter told ResiClub: The impending change in leadership at the Fed could lead to easier monetary policy, which could lead to lower mortgage rates, but this is not clear. The extent of the decline and mortgage rates will depend upon factors like bond market inflation expectations and the budget deficit as well as the rate of GDP growth. Capital Economics: Economists at the independent economic research business based in London forecasts that the 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate will average 6.5% in Q4 2026. Mortgage Bankers Association: The latest forecast published by the trade group has the 30-year fixed mortgage averaging 6.4% in 2026. PNC Bank: Economists at the American bank forecasts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.4% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027. Compass: Mike Simonsen, the chief economist of Compass, forecasts an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.30% in 2026. Realtor.com: Economists at the real estate listing site forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.30% in 2026, including 6.3% in Q4, writing: The mortgage rate lock-in effectcaused by market rates that are well above the rates on existing mortgageshas left many homeowners with a strong reason to stay put. In fact, recent data showed that 4 out of every 5 homeowners with a mortgage has a rate below 6%. The share has waned gradually, a trend that will continue in 2026. As a result, turnover will be limited with moves likely to be spurred by life necessities such as job or family changes. Redfin: Economists at the residential real estate brokerage are predicting an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.3% in 2026, writing: A weaker labor market will lead the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026 and bring monetary policy to a more neutral place, which should keep mortgage rates in the low-6% range. But lingering inflation risk and the likelihood that well avoid a recession will keep the Fed from cutting more than the markets have already priced in. Thats why rates may dip below 6% occasionally, but not for any meaningful period. The Fed will change leadership in 2026, but that is also unlikely to bring significantly lower mortgage rates, as long term rateslike mortgage ratesare set by bond markets. Windermere Real Estate: The economics team at Windermere Real Estate forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.25% in 2026. Moodys: The forecast by Moodys chief economist Mark Zandi has the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.23% in 2026and 6.22% in Q4. Cotality: Economists at the real estate analytics giant are predicting an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.2% in 2026. Selma Hepp, Cotality chief economist, tells ResiClub: The 2026 outlook points toward a return to more typical market conditions, with mortgage rates expected to settle near 6%, home prices increasing gradually by about 2% to 4%, and improvements in both affordability and availability of home for sale. Even so, continuing hurdles like higher non-mortgage expenses, including surging insurance costs and rising property tax bills, limited affordability, and uneven regional trends will keep bifurcating the market and impact decisions of both buyers and sellers. Yale School of Management: Finance professor Cameron LaPoint forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.2% in 2026and 6.05% in Q4. Wells Fargo: Analysts at the bank forecast 30-year fixed mortgage rate averages of 6.18% in 2026 (and 6.2% in Q4). Looking even further ahead, theyre forecasting a 6.25% average in 2027. National Association of Home Builders: Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB, forecasts an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.17% in 2026. Bright MLS: Economists at the firm expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.15% in Q4 2026. Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant writes: Lower rates will improve affordability and bring more buyers into the market in 2026. Mortgage rates began falling at the end of the third quarter of 2025. With additional Federal Reserve rate cuts planned for 2026, a response to weakening economic conditions, expect mortgage rates to fall from about 6.25% at the beginning of 2026 to 6.15% by the end of 2026. Zonda: Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.10% in 2026. Reventure App: Founder Nick Gerli tells ResiClub he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.1% in 2026. National Association of Realtors: The economics team at the trade group forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6% in 2026. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun writes: As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better. . . . Its not going to be a big [mortgage rate] decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability. Miami Realtors: Economists at the groupwhich represents more than 60,000 real estate professionals and is the largest local Realtor association in the U.S.forecast the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6% in 2026, and 6.2% in Q4. Gay Cororaton, chief economist of Miami Realtors, tells ResiClub: With the Fed carefully balancing to achieve its dual mandate, inflation is likely to adjust downward to 2% slowly while the unemployment rate will edge up lightly or remain stable as the Fed avoids a hard landing. The only way for inflation to adjust quickly is if unemployment rises sharply as well to effect a decline in real wages. Either the Fed [is] still caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, I expect mortgage rates to essentially just move sideways, so sales and prices will also post very modest single-digit increases. Affordability will slightly improve but I dont see prices falling significantly despite the modest demand because sellers will also pull back to preserve their home equity gains. With home affordability still the biggest challenge for homebuyers, the upper price tier or the market will continue to be the most active segment. Fannie Mae: The latest forecast issued by Fannie Mae in December has the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6% in 2026 and 5.9% in 2027. Morgan Stanley: Strategists at the investment bank forecast the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will finish 2026 at 5.75%. In a report published on November 19, 2025, Morgan Stanley analysts write: As we gaze into our proverbial crystal ball for the year ahead, we see affordability improving at the margins as mortgage rates dip below 6%. That should provide a modest boost to both existing and new home sales, though we think there is more upside in 2027 than 2026. . . . The modest rally in the primary rate we expect to 5.75% will likely bring some new borrowers into the money, but the impact would be marginal: Only about 6% of conventional borrowers would benefit from that 50bp decline. Beyond that, the next 100bp drop would only add another 8% of borrowers. Meaningful refinance incentives dont emerge until rates fall below 4%, leaving the market in what we call a refi wasteland for much of 2026though we’ll note that just because we’re in a refi wasteland doesn’t mean mortgages in-the-money won’t see valuation challenges driven by shorter lags and increasing originator efficiency. Erdmann Housing Tracker: Housing analyst Kevin Erdmann tells ResiClub he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 5.75% in 2026and finish 2026 at 5.22%. Topline finding? Among the 21 mortgage rate forecasts tracked by ResiClub, the average prediction is 6.18% for calendar year 2026. Thats on par with the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (6.09%). Among the 21 mortgage rate forcasts for 2026 tracked by ResiClub, the highest is 6.6% (Hunter Housing Economics), while the lowest is 5.75% (Morgan Stanley and Erdmann Housing Tracker). Over the past three years, turnover in the U.S. existing-home market has been constrained. Some of that reflects pulled-forward sales that occurred in 2020, 2021, or early 2022 rather than in 2023, 2024, or 2025. But much of the slowdown stems from affordability and the lock-in effect created by the rate shock and sharply higher switching costs: Many homeowners who would like to sell and move are either unwilling to take on a much higher monthly payment or unable to qualify for one. All else being equal, if mortgage rates were to fall more than expected, there would be slightly more turnover and sales in the existing home market. Lets say theyre wrong and mortgage rates fall more than expected. What happens? Theres a potential wildcardan economic slowdown. If joblessness were to climb faster than anticipated or if the economy were to meaningfully deteriorate, that could put additional downward pressure on both Treasury yields and mortgage rates. In that scenario, mortgage rates could dip more than the baseline forecasts suggest. The mortgage spread represents the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. This week, the spread stood at 207 basis points. If the spreadwhich widened when mortgage rates spiked in 2022continues to compress/normalize toward its long-term average since 1972 (176 basis points), it could help push mortgage rates lower even if Treasury yields hold steady. Housing stakeholders should keep in mind that a mortgage rate forecast is not a firms projection for the highestor lowestrate in the coming year. Rather, it reflects the average rate for the calendar year. And, of course, in any given year the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate can move well above and well below that annual average. A recent ResiClub analysis of Freddie Macs weekly mortgage-rate dataset finds that since 1972, the average annual range in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 1.4 percentage points. If you move the goalpost to just this centurysince 2001the average annual range in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 1.08 percentage points. In 2025, the range was 0.87 point. One last thought: Mortgage rate forecasts should always be taken with a grain of saltat least to some degree. Predicting long-term yields depends on accurately anticipating inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the broader trajectory of the U.S. and global economies, all of which are notoriously hard to get right. Over just the past five years, forecasters have been caught off guard by a pandemic, a historic inflation spike, and one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in modern history. The lesson? Even the best models cant account for every shock. Mortgage rate forecasts are useful guidepostsbut not guarantees.
Category:
E-Commerce
Heres the sad truth about sports score apps: Most of them arent all that interested in actually telling you the score. After all, wheres the money in providing straightforward information like that? The modern sports score app has to do more. It must bombard you with banner ads and betting odds, implore you to create an account and opt into notifications, sell you some tickets, and show some videos to keep engagement up. The scores themselves are an afterthought. Fortunately, theres an alternative that tells you the outcomes of every major sporting event without distractions. And the same sort of resources are available to bring minimalist magic to your news, weather, and even navigation, tooif you know where to look. This tip originally appeared in the free Cool Tools newsletter from The Intelligence. Get the next issue in your inbox and get ready to discover all sorts of awesome tech treasures! Useful info, without the filler First things first: For a simpler way to look up sports scores, just head to PlainTextSports.com in any web browser. Plain Text Sports is a website that lists out sports scores using only letters, numbers, and characters. The site loads pretty much instantly, and scanning the scores takes a few fast seconds. Its free, toowith no ads, logins, or subscriptions. The Plain Text Sports interface really is as plain as can be. After using an app like ESPN or TheScore, Plain Text Sports bare-bones appearance can take some getting used tobut youll quickly realize how much information is packed onto the homepage. For each league, you can click through to the schedule, standings, and team pages. Clicking on a game brings up detailed statistics and play-by-play details. Because this is a website, each league, team, and standings page also has its own URL. That means you can easily bookmark the ones you care about and skip the default home screen. Theres also a handy dark mode toggle at the top of the page. You’ll see all the pertinent info without any of the usual distractions. While Plain Text Sports does not have a dedicated mobile app, you can always add the site as a home screen icon. The site even provides a page with instructions for iOS and Android. The only notable downside with Plain Text Sports is its lack of highlight videos. Those would obviously be against the sites ethos, but if it could find a way to link to the latest clips from a site like ESPN or YouTube, itd be pretty much unbeatable. More plain-text resources Once you start getting your sports scores this way, you may find yourself hooked on the plain-text lifestyle. Here are some other resources that convey information in a similar way: 68k.news: Headlines in plain text. text.npr.org: NPRs list of headlines, which lead to text-only versions of each article. lite.cnn.com: Similar to the above, but for CNN. wttr.in: Your local weather forecast, rendered in ASCII symbols. (Fine-tune the forecast with these URL modifications.) gdir.telae.net: Text-based Google Maps directions, the way they used to be. This, suffice it to say, isn’t your average weather website. It doesnt get much simpler than that. Plain Text Sports is a website that works in any browser (as are all the other resources mentioned above). Its free to access, with no ads, subscriptions, or usage limits. (The same is mostly true for the other sites, too, though some do have ads.) The site doesnt track your individual usage or require any sort of personal data. Treat yourself to all sorts of brain-boosting goodies like this with the free Cool Tools newsletterstarting with an instant introduction to an incredible audio app thatll tune up your days in truly delightful ways.
Category:
E-Commerce
In announcing its Great Healthcare Plan in January 2026, the Trump administration became the latest in a long history of efforts by the U.S. government to rein in the soaring cost of healthcare. As a physician and professor studying the intersection of business and health, I know that the challenges in reforming the sprawling U.S. healthcare system are immense. Thats partly for political and even philosophical reasons. But it also reflects a complex system fraught with competing interestsand the fact that patients, hospitals, health insurance companies, and drug manufacturers change their behaviors in conflicting ways when faced with new rules. Soaring costs U.S. healthcare is the most expensive in the world, and according to a poll published in late January 2026, two-thirds of Americans are very worried about their ability to pay for itwhether its their medications, a doctors visit, health insurance or an unpredictably costly medical emergency. Disputes over health policy even played a central role in the federal government shutdown in fall 2025. Trumps healthcare framework outlines no specific policy actions, but it does establish priorities to address a number of longtime concerns, including prescription drug costs, price transparency, lowering insurance premiums, and making health insurance companies generally more accountable. Why have these challenges been so difficult to address? Drug price sticker shock Prescription drug costs in the U.S. began rising sharply in the 1980s, when drugmakers increased the development of innovative new treatments for common diseases. But efforts to combat this trend have resembled a game of whack-a-mole because the factors driving it are so intertwined. One issue is the unique set of challenges that define drug development. As with any consumer good, manufacturers price prescription drugs to cover costs and earn profits. Drug manufacturing, however, involves an expensive and time-consuming development process with a high risk of failure. Patent protection is another issue. Drug patents last 20 years, but completing costly trials necessary for regulatory approval takes up much of that period, reducing the time when manufacturers have exclusive rights to sell the drug. After a patent expires, generic versions can be made and sold for significantly less, lowering the profits for the original manufacturer. Though some data challenges this claim, the pharmaceutical industry contends that high prices while drugs are under patent help companies recover their investment, which then funds the discovery of new drugs. And they often find ways to extend their patents, which keeps prices elevated for longer. Then there are the intermediaries. Once a drug is on the market, prices are typically set through negotiations with administrators called pharmacy benefit managers, who negotiate discounts and rebates on prescription drugs for health insurers and employers offering benefits to their workers. Pharmacy benefit managers are paid based on those discounts, so they do not have an incentive to lower total drug prices, though new transparency rules enacted February 3 aim to change payment practices. Drugmakers often raise the list price of drugs to make up for the markdowns that pharmacy benefit managers negotiateand possibly even more than that. In many countries, centralized government negotiators set the price for prescription drugs, resulting in lower drug prices. This has prompted American officials to consider using those prices as a reference for setting drug prices here. In its blueprint, the Trump administration has called for a most-favored nation drug pricing policy, under which some U.S. drug prices would match the lowest prices paid in other countries. This may work in the short term, but manufacturers say it could also curtail investment in innovative new drugs. And some industry experts worry that it may push manufacturers to raise international prices. Policy experts have questioned whether TrumpRx will bring down drug prices. In late 2025, 16 parmaceutical companies agreed to most-favored nation pricing for some drugs. Consumers can now buy them directly from manufacturers through TrumpRx, a portal that points consumers to drug manufacturers and provides coupons for purchasing more than 40 widely used brand-name drugs at a discount, which launched February 5. However, many drugs available through the platform can be purchased at lower prices as generics Increasing price transparency Fewer than 1 in 20 Americans know how much healthcare services will cost before they receive them. One fix for this seems obvious: Make providers list their prices up front. That way, consumers could compare prices and choose the most cost-effective options for their care. Spurred by bipartisan support in Congress, the government has embraced price transparency for healthcare services over the past decade. In February 2025, the Trump administration announced stricter enforcement for hospitals, which must now post actual prices, rather than estimates, for common medical procedures. Data is mixed on whether the approach is working as planned, however. Hospitals have reduced prices for people paying out of pocket, but not for those paying with insurance, according to a 2025 study. For one thing, when regulations change, companies make strategic decisions to achieve their financial goals and meet the new rulessometimes yielding unintended consequences. One study found, for example, that price transparency regulations in a series of clinics led to an increase in physician charges to insurance companies because some providers who had been charging less raised their prices to match more expensive competitors. Additionally, a 2024 federal government study found that 46% of hospitals were not compliant. The American Hospital Association, a trade group, suggested price transparency imposes a high administrative burden on hospitals while providing confusing information to patients, whose costs may vary depending on unique aspects of their conditions. And the fine for noncompliance, $300 per day, may be insufficient to offset the cost of disclosing this information, according to some health policy experts. Beyond high costs, patients also worry that insurers wont actually cover the care they receive. Cigna is currently fighting a lawsuit accusing its doctors of denying claims almost instantlywithin an average of 1.2 secondsbut concerns about claims denial are rampant across the industry. Companies use of artificial intelligence to deny claims is compounding the problem. Fewer than 1 in 20 Americans know how much healthcare services will cost before they get them. [Images: Adobe Stock] Curbing the rise in health insurance premiums Many Americans struggle to afford monthly insurance premiums. But curbing that increase significantly may be impossible without reining in overall healthcare costs and, paradoxically, keeping more people insured. Insurance works by pooling money paid by members of an insurance plan. That money covers all members healthcare costs, with some using more than they contribute and others less. Premium prices therefore depend on how many people are in the plan, as well as the services insurance will cover and the services people actually use. Because healthcare costs are rising overall, commercial insurance companies may not be able to significantly lower premiums without reducing their ability to cover costs and absorb risk. Nearly two-thirds of Americans under age 65 receive health insurance through employers. Another 6.9% of them get it through Affordable Care Act marketplaces, where enrollment numbers are extremely sensitive to premium costs. Enrollment in ACA plans nearly doubled in 2021, from about 12 million to more than 24 million, when the government introduced subsidies to reduce premiums during the COVID-19 pandemic. But when the subsidies expired on January 1, 2026, about 1.4 million dropped coverage, and for most who didnt, premiums more than doubled. The Congressional Budget Office projects that another 3.7 million will become uninsured in 2027, reversing some of the huge gains made since the ACA was passed in 2010. When health insurance costs rise, healthier people may risk going without. Those who remain insured tend to need more health services, requiring those more costly services to be covered by a smaller pool of people and raising premium prices even higher. The Trump administration has proposed routing the money spent on subsidies directly to eligible Americans to help them purchase health insurance. How much people would receive is unclear, but amounts in previous proposals wouldnt cover what the subsidies provided. To sum it up, healthcare is extremely complicated and there are numerous barriers to reforms, as successive U.S. administrations have learned over the years. Whether the Trump administration finds some success will depend on how well the policies are able to surmount these and other obstacles. Patrick Aguilar is the managing director of health at Washington University in St. Louis. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Category:
E-Commerce
Personality is one of the most underrated predictors of career success in the world. Defined by scientists as the range of habits and typical behaviors that make us who we areand different from othersand with more than a century of robust academic evidence on how it impacts work and other real-life outcomes, here are some fascinating facts to digest: (1) The simplest and most reliable way to understand someones personality is to look at their scores (position) along five universal traits, namely emotional stability (how calm, composed, and non-anxious you are), extraversion (how sociable, assertive, and energetic you are), agreeableness (how kind, polite, and friendly you are), openness to experience (how curious, intellectual, and open-minded you are), and conscientiousness (how driven, organized, and self-controlled you are). In fact, every other character trait you may read aboute.g., EQ, grit, empathy, resilience, authoritarian, and overconfidentis nothing but a combination of those Big Five traits, if not merely one of them relabeled (old wine in new bottles). (2) There are multiple ways to assess these personality traits, ranging from peer-ratings (most people would agree on their views of a specific person, since we all have consistent reputations and others are able to decode them), AI-scraping of digital footprints (what we say and do online, and how we say and do it compared to others), and science-based personality assessment (you can take a free, visual two-minute version here). Although some believe that self-report questionnaires are inadequate to capture someones personalitybecause anyone can lie or distort their answers and manage impressionswell-designed tests translate someones preferred self-presentation into a prediction of their future performance, including how they behave in work and career settings. {"blockType":"mv-promo-block","data":{"imageDesktopUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/tcp-photo-syndey-16X9.jpg","imageMobileUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/tcp-photo-syndey-1x1-2.jpg","eyebrow":"","headline":"Get more insights from Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic","dek":"Dr. Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic is a professor of organizational psychology at UCL and Columbia University, and the co-founder of DeeperSignals. He has authored 15 books and over 250 scientific articles on the psychology of talent, leadership, AI, and entrepreneurship. ","subhed":"","description":"","ctaText":"Learn More","ctaUrl":"https:\/\/drtomas.com\/intro\/","theme":{"bg":"#2b2d30","text":"#ffffff","eyebrow":"#9aa2aa","subhed":"#ffffff","buttonBg":"#3b3f46","buttonHoverBg":"#3b3f46","buttonText":"#ffffff"},"imageDesktopId":91424798,"imageMobileId":91424800,"shareable":false,"slug":""}} (3) There are hundreds of independent scientific studies highlighting the consistent predictive power of personality vis--vis all types of job performance and career success outcomes. Most notably, the Big Five have been found to predict job satisfaction (higher in emotionally stable, agreeable, and conscientious people), leadership potential (higher in extraverted, emotionally stable, open-to-experience, and conscientious people), sales performance (higher in extraverts), general career progression (higher in conscientious and extraverted people, though the latter depends on culture), and resilience (higher in emotionally stable and conscientious people). Even negative or undesirable outcomes, such as absenteeism, work conflict, and career instability (all more likely when you have lower emotional stability, conscientiousness, and agreeableness). In short, who you are determines how you work and how you relate to work, including your boss, colleagues, and clients. And yet, the predictive power of personality is not destiny. Acknowledging that personality shapes career outcomes does not mean we are prisoners of our dispositions. It does mean, however, that control comes in specific and sometimes counterintuitive forms. Behavioral changes First, while it is hard to change your personality, it is entirely possible to change your behavior: Personality describes tendencies, not fixed scripts. It reflects what comes naturally, not what is possible. A useful way to think about personality is as a set of default settings rather than an immutable operating system. You may be naturally introverted, emotionally reactive, or low in conscientiousness, but that does not prevent you from acting differently when the situation requires it. It does mean that doing so will take more effort and intention than it would for someone whose personality aligns more closely with the role. This is where self-awareness becomes essential. Without it, people mistake their habits for necessities and their preferences for constraints. With it, they can anticipate when their instincts will help and when they will mislead them. Self-awareness is not achieved through introspection alone. It comes from structured feedback, personality assessment, coaching, and noticing patterns over time. If you receive the same feedback across roles, bosses, or teams, that is not coincidence. It is personality expressing itself. A useful analogy is handedness. Being left-handed does not prevent you from using your right hand, but it does mean that writing with it will feel awkward and effortful at first. Over time, however, people adapt, compensate, and sometimes become functionally ambidextrous. Personality works in much the same way. Good and bad matches Second, there is no such thing as a universally good or bad personality. There are only good or bad matches. Traits become assets or liabilities depending on context. High extraversion is advantageous in leadership and sales, but less so in roles requiring sustained focus. High agreeableness supports collaboration, but can undermine negotiation and tough decision-making. High openness fuels learning and innovation, but may complicate execution if not balanced with discipline. This is why talent is often best understood as personality in the right place. Careers accelerate when environments reward who you already are rather than punish it. Much of what organizations label as underperformance is simply misfit. The same individual can look average in one role and exceptional in another, without changing much at all. This also explains why changing environments is often more effective than trying to change oneself. If development proves hard or slow, adjusting role design, team composition, or organizational culture can quickly turn a personality liability into a strength. This is not avoidance. It is strategic self-management. Change happens Third, people can and do change, including in durable ways: Personality is relatively stable, but it is not fixed. Longitudinal research shows that people change across adulthood, often becoming more emotionally stable, agreeable, and conscientious over time. More targeted change can occur through sustained role demands, life events, and deliberate inerventions such as coaching. Crucially, coaching almost always works by helping people go against their nature. Leaders are rarely coached to do more of what comes naturally. They are coached to slow down when they rush, listen when they dominate, tolerate uncertainty when they avoid it, or impose structure when they prefer improvisation. In that sense, development is inherently anti-authentic. Growth usually requires behaving less like your default self, not more. This is also why development feels effortful. Personality change does not happen through insight alone, but through repeated behavioral experiments that gradually recalibrate habits. Over time, what once felt unnatural can become routine, expanding a persons behavioral range. A perfect fit isnt required Fourth, and critically, it is perfectly possible to succeed in roles that are not tailor-made for your personality: Personality explains a meaningful but limited portion of career success. Even under the most generous estimates, it accounts for perhaps 40% to 50% of the variance in outcomes, often less. The rest is explained by skills, learning, motivation, context, opportunity, and persistence. In practice, this means that people routinely succeed in roles that do not fit them naturally. Introverts can be excellent salespeople. They may not draw energy from constant interaction, but they often compensate through preparation, deep listening, and follow-up. Highly agreeable individuals can become effective negotiators by learning when to create constructive conflict. Risk-averse people can lead innovation by relying on disciplined experimentation rather than bold improvisation. Less conscientious individuals can thrive in structured roles by building external systems that compensate for their preferences. In many of these cases, success depends on emotional labor: the ability to display enthusiasm, confidence, or composure that may not reflect ones internal state but is appropriate for the role. Emotional labor is often dismissed as inauthentic, yet it is one of the most underrated career skills. Many high performers succeed not because their jobs perfectly match who they are, but because they have learned to perform the role effectively. A useful analogy is acting. Good actors are not limited to playing versions of themselves. They succeed by understanding the demands of the role and adapting accordingly. Careers work much the same way. People often grow into roles that initially felt uncomfortable, not because their personality changed overnight, but because their capacity to adapt expanded.The danger is not stretching beyond your personality, but doing so indefinitely without recovery, awareness, or choice. In short, personality shapes how we work, how others experience us, and how our careers unfold over time. It is one of the most powerful forces in career development precisely because it operates quietly and consistently. But influence is not destiny. With self-awareness, strategic choices, and deliberate development, people can work with their personality rather than be constrained by it. The real risk is not having a particular personality. It is failing to understand the one you have, and mistaking being yourself for the same thing as being effective. {"blockType":"mv-promo-block","data":{"imageDesktopUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/tcp-photo-syndey-16X9.jpg","imageMobileUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/tcp-photo-syndey-1x1-2.jpg","eyebrow":"","headline":"Get more insights from Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic","dek":"Dr. Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic is a professor of organizational psychology at UCL and Columbia University, and the co-founder of DeeperSignals. He has authored 15 books and over 250 scientific articles on the psychology of talent, leadership, AI, and entrepreneurship. ","subhed":"","description":"","ctaText":"Learn More","ctaUrl":"https:\/\/drtomas.com\/intro\/","theme":{"bg":"#2b2d30","text":"#ffffff","eyebrow":"#9aa2aa","subhed":"#ffffff","buttonBg":"#3b3f46","buttonHoverBg":"#3b3f46","buttonText":"#ffffff"},"imageDesktopId":91424798,"imageMobileId":91424800,"shareable":false,"slug":""}}
Category:
E-Commerce