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Uncertainty over the economy and tariffs is forcing retailers to pull back or delay plans to hire seasonal workers who pack orders at distribution centers, serve shoppers at stores and build holiday displays during the most important selling season of the year. American Christmas LLC, which creates elaborate holiday installations for commercial properties such as New York’s Rockefeller Center and Radio City Music Hall, plans to hire 220 temporary workers and is ramping up recruitment nearly two months later than usual, CEO Dan Casterella said. Last year, the company took on 300 people during its busy period. The main reason? The company wants to offset its tariff bill, which Casterella expects to be as big as $1.5 million this year, more than double last years $600,000. The issue is if you overstaff and then you underperform, its too late,” Casterella said. I think everyones more mindful now than ever. Holiday hiring could fall to the lowest level since 2009 Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts hiring for the last three months of the year will likely fall under 500,000 positions. That’s fewer than last years 543,000 level and also marks the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years when retailers hired 495,800 temporary workers, the firm said. The average seasonal gain since 2005 has been 653,363 workers, the firm said. Among other companies cutting holiday payrolls: Radial, an e-commerce company that powers deliveries for roughly 120 companies like Lands End and Cole Haan and operates 20 fulfillment sites. It plans to hire 6,500 workers, fewer than last years 7,000, and is waiting to the last minute to ramp up hiring for some of its clients, chief human resources officer Sabrina Wnorowski said. Bath & Body Works, based in Reynoldsburg, Ohio, said it plans to hire 32,000 workers, lower than the 32,700 a year ago. Among the bright spots: Online behemoth Amazon Inc. said Monday it intends to hire 250,000 full-, part-time and seasonal workers for the crucial shopping period, the same level as a year ago. We saw real strong signals that theres been a cooling in the labor market, even beyond what our expectations were in the first nine months of the year, Challenger’s senior vice president Andy Challenger said. We are having lots of regular conversations with companies about pending layoffs and changes theyre making to their workforce. In addition to overall economic uncertainty, Challenger noted companies are using artificial intelligence bots to replace some workers, particularly those working in call centers. And he’s also seeing companies hiring workers closer to when they need them. Meanwhile, the list of companies staying mum about their specific holiday hiring goals keeps growing. Target Corp., UPS, and Macys are declining to offer figures, a departure from the past. UPS had hired 125,000 seasonal hires last year, while Target announced last year it planned to hire 100,000 workers. Macy’s last year said it would hire 31,500 seasonal workers. Holiday hiring: the first clues to what’s in store for spending Retailers’ hiring plans mark the first clues to whats in store for the U.S. holiday shopping season and come as the U.S. job market has lost momentum this year, partly because Trumps trade wars have created uncertainty that’s paralyzing managers trying to make hiring decisions. The Labor Department reported in early September that U.S. employers companies, government agencies, and nonprofits added just 22,000 jobs in August, down from 79,000 in July and well below the 80,000 that economists had expected. The government shutdown, which started Oct. 1 and has delayed the release of economic reports, could worsen the job picture. In an attempt to exert more pressure on Democratic lawmakers as the government shutdown continues, the White House budget office said Friday that mass firings of federal workers have started. The firings are happening as hundreds of thousands are already furloughed and still others are being required to report to duty without pay. Analysts will be closely monitoring the shutdown’s impact on spending. For now, many retailers say that consumers, while resilient, are choosy about what they buying. Analysts will also be closely watching how shoppers will react as retailers push through price increases as a result of high tariff costs in the next few months, experts said. Given an economic slowdown, holiday spending growth is expected to be smaller than a year ago, according to several forecasts. Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods including cash, predicts that holiday sales will be up 3.6% from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase during the year-ago period. Deloitte Services LP forecasts holiday retail sales to be up between 2.9% to 3.4% from Nov. 1 through Jan. 31. That’s compared to the same year-ago period when retail sales increased 4.2% from the year before. Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $253.4 billion this holiday season from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, representing a 5.3% growth. Thats smaller than last year’s 8.7% growth. A more flexible approach Given the uncertainty, companies increasingly want to hire workers closer to when they need them, experts said. In today’s environment, brands are really looking for us to be agile, Radial’s Wnorowski said. Radial is meeting that need of the customer and the consumer with a more flexible and disciplined approach to hiring. So for some of its clients, Radial will now be hiring two weeks before Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional start for the holiday shopping season, instead of four weeks before the kickoff, she said. Radial is also speeding up training of holiday hires due to new technology that’s simplifying their tasks. It used to take a couple of days to train a worker, but now it only takes a couple of hours, she said. Meanwhile, Target said it’s again embracing a three-prong approach. It starts first by offering current workers additional hours and then taps into a separate pool of workers 43,000 who pick up shifts that work for their schedules. The Minneapolis-based company also hires seasonal workers across its nearly 2,000 stores and more than 60 distribution facilities to meet demand, it said. For the past few years, Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer and the largest private emloyer, has been offering the extra hours available during the holidays to its workers, a Walmart spokesperson said, noting it’s worked well and the feedback from customers and workers has been overwhelmingly positive. The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer said there may be some seasonal hiring on a store-by-store basis, but the majority of stores will dole out those hours to current workers. Late start plus no economic data could create challenges Waiting until the last minute to hire workers could mean a mad scramble to find talent, but companies say that due to the slowing economy, they don’t anticipate having a hard time finding the needed pool. Meanwhile, the temporary halting of the release of economic reports leaves retailers in the dark about forecasting sales and the workers they need to meet the demand. Certainly, for our customers not having access to data will put more of a challenge on their ability to forecast, Wnorowski of Radial said. But well stay very close to them as we go into peak and well adjust as soon we see things changing. Anne D’Innocenzio, AP retail writer
Category:
E-Commerce
There’s an ear-piercing war brewing at the mall. Claire’s, the biggest player in the market, has hit hard times, leaving room for upstarts to impinge on its territory. For 60 years, Claire’s has billed itself as a place for kids and teens to get their first piercings. The company says it has pierced more than 100 million ears since 1978. But after declaring bankruptcy in August (its second bankruptcy in seven years), Claire’s was acquired by the holding company Ames Watson for $140 million. These new owners have plans to turn the business around, including drastically shrinking its retail footprint which had ballooned to more than 1,000 stores. It recently announced it is shuttering upwards of 290 locations across the country. And Rowan, an ear-piercing startup, has told Fast Company that it is planning to start taking over some of these locations starting with a store in New Hampshire and outside of Boston. [Photo: courtesy Rowan] Building a piercing empire Claire’s continues to be a large player in the ear-piercing world. Last year it generated upwards of $2 billion in revenue, but it has also accumulated $500 million in debt from a leveraged buyout. It has struggled to pay off this debt because its profits have declined due to slowing foot traffic at mall and increased tariffs. But more broadly, while many millennials still remember Claire’s fondly from their own teenage years, the retailer has not evolved to meet the needs of today’s consumers. The stores feel like a warehouse, crammed with cheap trinkets. The ear-piercing experience doesn’t feel particularly luxurious, as retail staff perform the procedure while also manning the checkout. As Claire’s has declined, many other alternatives have popped up, including Louvisa, a Claire’s-like brand from Australia; Studs, a startup focused on older teens and adults; and Banter, a piercing-focused brand owned by the jewelry giant Signet. Rowan, which was founded in 2017, is trying to unseat Claire’s as the go-to destination for a person’s first piercing. Louisa Schneider, Rowan’s founder and CEO, has worked hard to create an in-store experience that is clean and comfortable, particularly for children and their parents. It’s unique in the market for employing licensed nurses to perform the piercing, and it is able to pierce the ears of babies, which is an important rite of passage in many cultures. [Photo: Sandra Wong Geroux/courtesy Rowan] The startup, which generated $70 million in revenue last year, sees an opportunity in Claire’s downfall. It raised a $20 million series B in 2021, bringing its total funding to $25 million, and is working to expand its retail footprint. Now, it is quietly moving into many of Claire’s former locations. By the end of the year, Rowan expects to operate more than 100 ear-piercing studios and employ more than 800 people, more than half of which will be nurses. A better experience While Rowan and Claire’s overlap in some ways, the two businesses are also quite different. Claire’s is a retailer that specializes in selling cheap jewelry and knickknacks that are particularly appealing to the tween set. Ear-piercing is not its primary business, but for decades, the service has been a way to get customers through the door. Many millennials, who fondly remember getting their ears pierced at Claire’s, now bring their own kids to get their ears pierced for the first time. Louisa Schneider [Photo: courtesy Rowan] In contrast, Rowan’s entire business is focused on ear-piercing, which is the main source of the brand’s revenue. Schneider launched the business because she found a lot to be desired in the traditional mall ear-piercing experience. “When it came to my own daughter, I wanted the piercing to be the most important function of the person performing it, rather than an afterthought,” says Schneider. “But in many stores, overworked retail staff were being asked to perform a piercing, which is really a medical procedure. And they’re oftentimes dealing with a very young person.” At Rowan, Schneider has hired a team of licensed nurses who perform the piercings with either a needle or a device. It has small format stores that serve as piercing studios, with comfortable chairs where the procedure happens. [Photo: courtesy Rowan] The company also sells a wide range of earrings, most of which have a higher price point than those sold by Claire’s. Rowan spends a lot of time making sure that its products are hypoallergenic, to prevent irritation on newly pierced ears. Rowan also has an high-end line of 14k gold earrings, some of which are embedded with diamonds. But the majority of its revenue comes from the piercing service, which costs $35 for one ear and $50 for two ears, plus the cost of the jewelry. “We test all of our earrings to ensure they contain minimal nickel, brass, and other metals that are allergy inducing,” says Schneider. “We’re not a fashion jewelry store. Our focus is entirely on protecting newly pierced ears.” A growing market Until recently, piercing tended to be a service tacked on to jewelry stores, but over the past decade, it’s become clear that there is a market for ear-piercing as a stand-alone service. Studs, another startup, has also built a business around ear-piercing, but it only performs the service on people who are 13 and older. Rowan, on the other hand, tends to attract younger clients. “To have multiple piercings is now very common, even compared to 10 years ago,” says Schneider. “We’re seeing the demand for safe piercings go up.” [Photo: courtesy Rowan] Rowan is expanding its store footprint rapidly. Unlike some of its competitors, it’s a service that must happen in person, so it is imperative for the company to have brick-and-mortar stores. Schneider says that it has been able to take over many former Claire’s locations. While Claire’s has stores of many sizes, and in many locations, Schneider is rather selective with Rowan’s locations. It seeks out small-format stores, and also locations in the more premium parts of the mall, close to high-end brands. “Many Claire’s locations are near food courts,” Schneider says. “You’ll usually find Rowan close to the Apple store or Lululemon.” But while Rowan aspires to impinge on Claire’s territory, it is still much smaller than Claire’s. It generated $70 million last year, which is a small fraction of Claire’s $2 billion. But Claire’s has an uphill battle ahead to become profitable. It’s new owners have said that while the Claire’s brand is strong, it’s business model is “broken” and needs to be reimagined. Meanwhile, Schneider wants to stay laser focused on catering to the needs of its customers. “There are so many products you can get online now, but the reason you go to a store is because of the customer service,” she says. “That’s where we want to stand out.”
Category:
E-Commerce
Most American cities have street networks that are engineered for us to comfortably drive much too fast for our surroundings. Even our old, pre-automobile cities have been upgraded to make dangerous driving habits easy. Transportation professionals are allowed to use good judgment when deciding how to design city streets, but they often need to be reminded, especially in cities where the state department of transportation has authority. Its not enough for you as a good urbanist to tell an engineer to make better choices. After all, theyre not a malicious bunch trying to wreck society. Theyre conforming to the long-established rules of the industry. {"blockType":"creator-network-promo","data":{"mediaUrl":"","headline":"Urbanism Speakeasy","description":"Join Andy Boenau as he explores ideas that the infrastructure status quo would rather keep quiet. To learn more, visit urbanismspeakeasy.com.","substackDomain":"https:\/\/www.urbanismspeakeasy.com\/","colorTheme":"green","redirectUrl":""}} The AASHTO Green Book is the go-to excuse that professionals use for street design that prioritizes vehicle speed and throughput at the expense of safety. (It costs a fortune, so find a library copy.) The costs of speed AASHTO says what many experts avoid admitting: Speed reduces the visual field, restricts peripheral vision, and limits the time available for drivers to receive and process information. The faster you drive, the less you see. And when you finally do see someone headed into your path, its too late to stop in time. The go with the flow justification for driving 40 mph around schools, homes, and storefronts causes preventable crashes, injuries, and fatalities. Engineers who read the Green Book will find this reminder about using judgment that goes beyond tables or graphs (emphasis mine): Design speed is a selected speed used to determine the various geometric design features of the roadway. The selected design speed should be a logical one with respect to the anticipated operating speed, topography, the adjacent land use, and the functional classification of the highway. In selection of design speed, every effort should be made to attain a desired combination of safety, mobility, and efficiency within the constraints of environmental quality, economics, aesthetics, and social or political impacts. Its still a highway-minded narrative, but theres flexibility in the language. So when professional engineers blame AASHTO for not implementing traffic calming measures, you know better. AASHTO expects licensed professionals to be conscientious problem solvers, not automated copy/pasters. A smarter approach Heres a two-step suggestion for having more productive conversations with the planners and engineers responsible for your areas street design: (1) Use plain language to talk about context, and (2) Share specific engineering methods that are approved by the status quo. Talking about context A house limits your ability to run. You walk from the bedroom to the kitchen. Guests visit, and they walk around and sit down. An open field gives you space to go as fast as your body motor allows. Friends and strangers can run with you, or in different directions. Some streets need to be engineered for slow driving. Some parts of the neighborhood are intended to be a living room, not an open field. Offering industry-approved options Its worth having some basic understanding of traffic calming techniques that are considered acceptable by status quo design guides, such as the AASHTO Green Book. Here are some notes to help get you started. Narrow lanes. 10-ft instead of 12-ft, even on the busy streets. Restriping is cheap and effective. Fewer lanes (road diet). Safer for people behind the wheel and people walking. Wide sidewalks. Most standard sidewalks arent even wide enough for two people to comfortably pass each other. Textured stripes / rumble strips. Used to transition from high-speed to low-speed areas. Textured pavement. Cobblestones arent your only option in the 21st century. Diverters. Popular on bike boulevards to prevent drivers from going straight across an intersection. Midblock crossings. Break up super blocks with flashing beacons for pedestrians. On-street parking. But it better be replacing car storage, not adding more! Chicanes. The S-curve feel that makes driving slightly uncomfortable. Trees. Along the sides and in the center of traffic circles and roundabouts. Roundabouts. Or traffic circles, depending on the type of intersection. Bumpouts / chokers. Theyll show tire marks from all the rubs, but thats progress. Use at intersections or midblock. Tight corners. 90 degrees if you please. No swooping curves. Street furniture. Benches, lights, trash cans, restaurant signs, bike racks, etc. Raised intersection. Pricey but effective way to put pedestrians on a pedestal. Raised crosswalk. Like a speed hump wide enough for people to walk across. If youre interested in going deeper, here are a few transportation resources to get you familiar with traffic calming. FHWA AASHTO ITE NACTO Global Designing Cities Initiative The bottom line: slower is safer. {"blockType":"creator-network-promo","data":{"mediaUrl":"","headline":"Urbanism Speakeasy","description":"Join Andy Boenau as he explores ideas that the infrastructure status quo would rather keep quiet. To learn more, visit urbanismspeakeasy.com.","substackDomain":"https:\/\/www.urbanismspeakeasy.com\/","colorTheme":"green","redirectUrl":""}}
Category:
E-Commerce
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