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Experts have compressed their predictions for when artificial general intelligence (AGI)the type of AI that can equal or exceed human intelligencewill arrive. When predictions were first made in 2023, AGI was expected to arrive in 50 years. Newer estimates say five years. When GPT-5 came out this summer, it demonstrated surprising leaps in reasoning and memory, further accelerating those timelines. Progress is moving faster than anyone anticipated, and what once felt speculative now feels inevitable. Meanwhile, small teams are shipping products that would have required 100-person companies two years ago. The gap between the AGI debaters and the builders (those who are developing AGI systems) isn’t philosophicalit’s economic. While everyone waits for perfect AI, builders are dominating markets with today’s “broken” tools, those that are functioning, albeit with some quirks, that will be worked out as the technology evolves. They arent betting on future breakthroughs, theyre betting on momentum. WHAT’S ACTUALLY HAPPENING This wave of adoption isnt happening in research labs. Its happening inside companies solving boring, repetitive problems. The shift isnt about science fiction-level AI. Its about shipping fast and iterating now. As has been covered in Fast Company: Cursor went from launch to 40,000 customers by letting developers code faster with AI. Glean hit $100 million in annual revenue helping companies search their own documents. These aren’t hypothetical AGI use cases. They’re real businesses built on today’s imperfect AI. And theyre growing because theyre solving problems that already existnot waiting on capabilities that might. At Fireflies, we process billions of conversations across sales, recruiting, and customer success. Our AI doesn’t just transcribe. It identifies deal risks, surfaces customer objections, and tracks competitive mentions across entire organizations. Its not flawless, but there isnt an AI yet that is, but an AI tool that can provide actionable insights today beats a perfect AI that never ships. Were seeing the same pattern across the board: AI thats just good enough is already creating leverage. Take “vibe coding” platformsthey let non-programmers create apps simply by describing what they want in natural language without a single line of code. Are these apps perfect? No. Do they work well enough to solve real problems? Absolutely. That means were entering a phase where anyone with a problem and a prompt can build a product. THE COMPOUND EFFECT The hardest part of adopting AI? Knowing where to start. Begin with the boring stuff. Find the repetitive task in your workflow that nobody wants to do. Apply todays AI, and ship when the product or service is 80% good. Then, fix as you go. Most companies think they need a moonshot AI strategy. What they need is a simple use case. The advantage isnt having the smartest model, its in learning the fastest. AI rewards iteration, so the teams that adopt early build intuition, infrastructure, and momentum that compound. Early adoption gives you more than toolsit gives you an internal muscle for how to think with AI. This is what builders do while large companies form AI committees. And every day the builders ship, they get stronger. Every interaction improves their product. Every customer teaches them something new. Every iteration makes switching to their solution more inevitable. By the time AGI arrives (whether that’s 2027 or 2047), these builders will own entire markets. Not because they had better AI, but because they started using what was available. BUILD OR LOSE The world will keep running, but ownership of entire industries will have already changed hands. From companies waiting for perfect AI to builders who shipped with what they had. OpenAI itself proved this path works: They’ve improved their models not through some breakthrough to AGI, but by shipping o1 models that spend more computing power on reasoning at inference time, the moment a model is generating answers in response to a prompt. Messy iteration beats elegant planning. Stop waiting for the perfect model. Stop debating timelines. The builders aren’t waiting for history. They’re making it. Krish Ramineni is CEO and cofounder of Fireflies.ai.
Category:
E-Commerce
At a time when Americans are frustrated and angry over the high cost of living, the government released a report Thursday showing that inflation had cooled unexpectedly in November. But economists quickly warned that last month’s numbers were suspect because theyd been delayed and likely distorted by the 43-day federal shutdown. And most Americans have not felt any let up in the high prices they are paying for food, insurance, utilities, and other basic necessities. The Labor Department reported Thursday that its consumer price index rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier. Yet, year-over-year inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Americans, dismayed by high prices, handed big victories to Democrats in local and state elections last month. The inflation report was delayed eight days by the shutdown, which also prevented the Labor Department from compiling overall numbers for consumer prices and core inflation in October and disrupted the usual data-collecting process. Thursdays report gave investors, businesses, and policymakers their first look at CPI since the September numbers were released on Oct. 24. Consumer prices had risen 3% in September from a year earlier, and forecasters had expected the November CPI to match that year-over-year increase. Its likely a bit distorted, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm KPMG. The good news is that its cooling. Well take a win when we can get it. Still, Swonk added: The data is truncated, and we just dont know how much of it to trust. By disrupting the economy especially government contracting the shutdown may have contributed to a cooling in prices, she said. Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, warned that the November numbers were noisy … The canceling of the October report makes month-on-month comparisons impossible, for example, while the truncated information-gathering process given the shutdown could have caused systematic biases in the data.” Many economists don’t expect to get a reliable read on inflation until next month when the Labor Department releases CPI numbers for December. Energy prices, driven up by sharply higher fuel oil prices, rose 4.2% in November. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 2.6%, compared with a 3% year-over-year gain in September and the lowest since March 2021. U.S. inflation remains stubbornly high, partly because of President Donald Trumps decision to impose double-digit taxes on imports from almost every country on earth along with targeted tariffs on specific products like steel, aluminum and autos. The presidents tariffs have so far proved less inflationary than economists feared. But they do put upward pressure on prices and complicate matters at the Fed, which is trying to decide whether to keep cutting its benchmark interest rate to support a sputtering job market or whether to hold off until inflationary pressures ease. The central bank last week decided to reduce the rate for the third time this year, but Fed officials signaled that they expect just one cut in 2026. “The Fed will instead focus on the December CPI released in mid-January, just two weeks before its next meeting, as a more accurate bellwether for inflation,” said Haigh at Goldman Sachs. Trump delivered a politically charged speech Wednesday that aired live during prime time on network television, seeking to pin the blame for economic challenges on Democrats. The speech was a rehash of his recent messaging that has so far been unable to calm public anxiety about the rising cost of groceries, housing, utilities and other basic goods. As the holiday season approaches, Americans are dipping into savings, scouring for bargains and feeling like the overall economy is sputtering, a new AP-NORC poll finds. The vast majority of U.S. adults say theyve noticed higher than usual prices for groceries, electricity and holiday gifts in recent months, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Roughly half of Americans say its harder than usual to afford the things they want to give as holiday gifts, and similar numbers are delaying big purchases or cutting back on nonessential purchases more than they would normally. Trump has promised an economic boom, yet inflation has stayed elevated and the job market has weakened in the wake of his import taxes. Trumps tariffs are taking a toll on companies like Wolverine Worldwide, which makes footwear brands like Merrell and Saucony. Facing extra tariff costs of $10 million this year and $55 million in 2026, the Rockford, Michigan, company had to increase prices between 5% and 8% on some products in June, and will have to raise prices again next year. Its put a freeze on hiring and capital investments. The company is getting squeezed even as it diversifies its sourcing network away from China, which now makes less than 10% of its products. During Trumps first term, Wolverine shifted production to Vietnam. Now its moving to Bangladesh, Cambodia and Indonesia. The problem isnt just the cost of the tariffs. Its the uncertainty caused by the unpredictable way that Trump rolls them out. From a business leaders perspective, its one thing if theres bad news, said Wolverine CEO Christopher Hufnagel. Just tell me what the bad news is, and Ill go work to try to solve for it. Its the uncertainty of how it actually plays out that causes so much trouble because then were modeling all these different scenarios and it seems like things can change in the middle of the night. Paul Wiseman and Anne D’Innocenzio, AP business writers
Category:
E-Commerce
Christmas is coming, and our bank accounts are getting, well, obliterated. But luckily, it’s no longer just your quirky aunt who appreciates a good secondhand store: Shopping for gently used items, especially during the holidays, is now on trend. And if you get on board, you might be able to save a bundle by swapping your mall run for a day of thrifting. In recent years, “Thriftmas”or shopping for Christmas gifts at stores like Good Will, The Salvation Army, Savers, and online platforms that sell used itemshas been creeping into the mainstream. And this year is no different. According to global data from online store ThredUp, in 2025, shoppers plan to dedicate nearly 40% of their holiday budgets to secondhand giftsa pretty significant jump, even from last year alone. And in 2025, the U.S. secondhand market is worth an estimated $56 billion, up 14.3% from in 2024. Why the trend? For starters, Gen Z loves all things vintage, whether it’s Polaroid cameras, a pair of flares, or iPods. So it makes sense that thrifting is gaining traction, especially among younger generations. A new survey from Affirm found that 24% of Gen Zers chose to thrift or DIY their home decor, while 40% blend new with secondhand; and 23% shopped for secondhand clothes while 35% mixed thrifted with new clothing. Of course, it’s not just vintage-loving young people, but escalating financial worries that are driving the trend, too: 85% of shoppers say they expect gifts and other holiday-related items to cost more this year due to Trump’s tariffs, per the National Retail Federation. Likewise, 84% of consumers expect to cut back on overall spending due to rising prices and economic pressure, per PwC Holiday Outlook. However, Americans are hooked on gifts. While nearly two-thirds (63%) say they wish their family traditions were less focused on gifts, only one in five are considering giving less. The art of Thriftmas Enter: Thriftmas, which looks a bit different from hitting up Target, Hollister, and Home Goods. And it might take some warming up to, if you’ve never been big on shopping secondhand. However, your wallet will thank you. And popular influencers, who are pretty skilled at breathing new life into old things, are driving the movement with content about how to do Thriftmas right. They make choosing items at the thrift store to givesometimes along with something homemade like butter or baked goods, or with something newlook like an absolute art. Rebecca Miller, an expert secondhand shopper based in Northeast Ohio, runs the popular Instagram account My Thrifted Abode. Miller tells Fast Company that even though thrifting is majorly on trend in modern times, it’s not new to her. “Thrifting has always been a part of my life,” says Miller. “I grew up in a family where money was tight at times. I remember going to auctions and thrift stores with my mom as a little girl. Its been a way of life for me for as long as I can remember.” Miller has only been sharing her thrift store finds for two years, but her Instagram already has over 114,000 followers, and there’s a reason why: She’s a talented thrifter who is skilled at teaching her audience how to thrift and gift. And according to her, people are more interested in thrifting because they are fed up with the holiday gift-giving craze and are seeking more sustainable options. “Theres been more of a light shed on the massive overconsumption issue we have,” she says, adding that the sheer amount of items that are bought new, then quickly disposed of is “truly concerning.” She’s not wrong: 11.3 million tons of textile waste end up in landfills yearly in the U.S., accounting for 7.7% of all landfill waste. During the holidays, the waste multiplies exponentially. Retailers say that 25% of returns end up being tossed out, leading to an extra 5.8 billion pounds of landfill wastemerely from returned items, not to mention all of the other holiday trash. A more personal (and very vintage) touch Miller says thrifting can contribute to a holiday season that’s more environmentally friendly, sustainable, and cheaper. But it’s not just about affordability. It’s about a more personal touch that puts genuine thought back into the holidays. “I love giving old things a new life and being a part of that items history,” she explains, noting that reimagining how to use old items scratches her “creative itch.” Taking a look at some of the fun and eclectic ways that Miller has styled items, it’s clear that it requires a bit more effort than clicking the “Buy Now” button on Amazon and slapping a bow on it the next day. In a recent video, Miller showed off adorable baskets for kids, with secondhand puzzles, books, and more. “I always thrift gifts for my kids for their birthday and Christmas, and let me tell you, it does not make a difference to them whether they are new items or not!” she wrote in the caption. But it’s likely not just kids who wouldn’t mind a thrifted giftespecially because the items don’t look like the things everyone else has. They’re vintage, unique, and require searching. “Its such a thrill to walk into a thrift store, full of junk, and never knowing what treasures youll find,” says Miller. “Theres nothing like the thrill of the hunt.” While many Americans will still flock to shop the big brands this season, it’s tough to miss that Thriftmas is about to show up in more homes than ever. And with influencers and Gen Z driving the trend, it feels about as welcomed as Santa sliding down the chimney with his bag of tricks. This year, it’s all about Thriftmasand it’s just as merry.
Category:
E-Commerce
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