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U.S. President Donald Trump has announced trade deals with Japan and a handful of other Asian countries that will relieve some pressure on companies and consumers from sharply higher tariffs on their exports to the United States. A deal with China is under negotiation, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying an Aug. 12 deadline might be postponed again to allow more time for talks. Steep tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum remain, however, and many other countries, including South Korea and Thailand, have yet to clinch agreements. Overall, economists say the tariffs inevitably will dent growth in Asia and the world. The deals reached so far, ahead of Trumps Aug. 1 deadline Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced a deal Wednesday that will impose 15% tariffs on U.S. imports from Japan, down from Trump’s proposed 25% reciprocal tariffs. It was a huge relief for automakers like Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda, whose shares jumped by double digits in Tokyo. Trump also announced trade deals with the Philippines and Indonesia. After meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., Trump said the import tax on products from his country would be subject to a 19% tariff, down just 1% from the earlier threat of a 20% tariff. Indonesia also will face a 19% tariff, down from the 32% rate Trump had recently said would apply, and it committed to eliminating nearly all of its trade barriers for imports of American goods. Earlier, Trump announced that Vietnam’s exports would face a 20% tariff, with double that rate for goods transshipped from China, though there has been no formal announcement. Talks with China may be extended Negotiations with China are subject to an Aug. 12 deadline, but it’s likely to be extended, Bessent told Fox Business on Tuesday. He said the two sides were due to hold another round of talks, this time in Sweden, early next week. Meanwhile, Trump said a trip to China may happen soon, hinting at efforts to stabilize U.S.-China trade relations. A preliminary agreement announced in June paved the way for China to lift some restrictions on its exports of rare earths, minerals critical for high technology and other manufacturing. In May, the U.S. agreed to drop Trump’s 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods to 30% for 90 days, while China agreed to lower its 125% rate on U.S. goods to 10%. The reprieve allowed companies more time to rush to try to beat the potentially higher tariffs, giving a boost to Chinese exports and alleviating some of the pressure on its manufacturing sector. But prolonged uncertainty over what Trump might do has left companies wary about committing to further investment in China. No deals yet for South Korea and other Asian countries Pressure is mounting on some countries in Asia and elsewhere as the Aug. 1 deadline for striking deals approaches. Trump sent letters, posted on Truth Social, outlining higher tariffs some countries will face if they fail to reach agreements. He said they’d face even higher tariffs if they retaliate by raising their own import duties. South Korea’s is set at 25%. Imports from Myanmar and Laos would be taxed at 40%, Cambodia and Thailand at 36%, Serbia and Bangladesh at 35%, South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 30% and Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Tunisia at 25%. The status of talks with India remains unclear but progress appears to hinge on the country’s heavily protected farm sector. It faces a 26% tariff. Nearly every country has faced a minimum 10% levy on goods entering the U.S. since April, on top of other sectoral levies. Economists expect tariffs to sap growth even with trade deals Even after Trump has pulled back from the harshest of his threatened tariffs, the onslaught of uncertainty and higher costs for both manufacturers and consumers has raised risks for the regional and global economy. Economists have been downgrading their estimates for growth in 2025 and beyond. The Asian Development Bank said Wednesday it had cut its growth estimate for economies in developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, down 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points. The outlook for the region could be further dimmed by an escalation of tariffs and trade friction, it said. Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains and raise energy prices, as well as a deterioration in China’s ailing property market. Economists at AMRO were less optimistic, expecting growth for Southeast Asia and other major economies in Asia at 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% next year. While countries in the region have moved to protect their economies from Trump’s trade shock, they face significant uncertainties, said AMRO’s chief economist, Dong He. Uneven progress in tariff negotiations and the potential expansion of tariffs to additional products could further disrupt trade activities and weigh on growth for the region, he said. Elaine Kurtenbach, AP business writer
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E-Commerce
Its no secret that the Trump administration has taken steps to limit student loan repayment options. Now, individuals on the Income-Based Repayment (IBR) plan will experience a temporary halt in forgiveness, the Department of Education (DOE) announcedwell, if you can call slipping a note into its FAQ section an announcement. Currently, IBR forgiveness is paused while our systems are updated to accurately count months not affected by the courts injunction, the DOE states under a tab about processing IDR forgiveness. IBR forgiveness will resume once those updates are completed. However, it notes that loan forgiveness under the IBR is still being processed. Its unclear when the program will start back up again. Fast Company reached out to the DOE for comment. According to Axios and CNN, about two million individuals are reportedly enrolled in the IBR plan. The Pay As You Earn (PAYE) and Income-Contingent Repayment (ICR) plans are also paused. SAVE can’t be saved This month has also marked the end of the fight to rescue former president Joe Biden’s Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan. Trumps so-called big, beautiful bill states that it must cease by July 2028, but it was already on its last legs. In February, an appeals court sided with a Republican-backed lawsuit that argued the Biden administration didnt have the authority to create it in the first placehence the injunction referenced in the DOE’s pause announcement. Individuals enrolled in the SAVE plan have been in an interest-free forbearance for over a year. Now, the roughly eight million borrowers on the SAVE plan will see interest accrue starting August 1. According to Student Aid, forbearance will continue until the legal situation changes or servicers are able to send bills to borrowers at the appropriate monthly amount. Borrowers in SAVE, PAYE, or ICR plans who enroll in an IBR plan can count their payments toward forgiveness.
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E-Commerce
Top alcohol makers have been sitting on the sidelines of a cannabis beverage boom, watching brands in the fast-growing category like Cann and Wynk make deals with beer and booze distributors, and gain valuable space on liquor store shelves. Now some alcohol companies, seeing their sales falter, are laying the groundwork to potentially enter the lucrative but risky market, a dozen founders of cannabis brands, ingredients suppliers and drinks manufacturers told Reuters. Drinks containing THC, the mood-altering ingredient in marijuana, are restricted to licensed dispensaries in 24 U.S. states where recreational use of pot is legal. But small amounts of THC can also be extracted from hemp, a crop that’s related to marijuana but is legal federally. Beverages containing THC derived from hemp can be sold in many liquor shops, convenience stores and supermarkets. That’s where Big Alcohol sees opportunity, despite some companies having been burned by past cannabis investments. Corona brewer Constellation Brands has been internally researching hemp-based cannabis drinks to weigh its next steps, a source familiar with the company’s thinking said. Absolut vodka distiller Pernod Ricard has met with Brez, maker of drinks with THC derived from hemp, as recently as last month to discuss a possible investment, Brez’s founder Aaron Nosbisch said. “They did not invest now but are circling,” Nosbisch said. Pernod declined to comment on the meeting. Constellation Brands said it does not comment on rumors and speculation. Alcohol makers are still suffering a hangover following America’s pandemic drinking binge, when sales spiked as cash-flush consumers splurged on pricey bottles of liquor for their homes, and then rushed back to bars when lockdown restrictions lifted. Alcohol sales have been falling ever since as inflation and interest rates rose and wallets became stretched. The companies also now face growing warnings from public health authorities who say drinking even small amounts of alcohol is associated with at least seven types of cancer. Overall U.S. beer volumes fell nearly 6% through May of this year, according to the Beer Institute. Volumes of spirits and wine sold in the same time period have declined by 5.6% and 9%, respectively, according to the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America. In a sign of tumult in the industry, the CEO of the world’s biggest alcohol maker, Diageo, stepped down last week as the company struggles to revive growth. But hemp-based drinks are expanding fast. The market for drinks infused with THC from hemp is projected to top $1 billion in sales this year, according to market research firm Euromonitor, and climb past $4 billion in 2028. Molson Coors CEO Gavin Hattersley told Reuters in January he’d be naive to say THC beverages aren’t having an effect “at least in a small way.” Tilray Brands, the fourth-largest U.S. craft brewer with brands including Montauk and Shock Top, is selling its new hemp-derived THC seltzers through its beer distributors such as United Distributors in Georgia, executives told Reuters in an interview. The company’s THC drinks are for sale in 13 states. “Theres not a real leader thats taken ahold of the (market) so far, and thats what we look to do,” Tilray’s CEO Irwin Simon told Reuters earlier this year. Others, including Heineken’s Lagunitas brand and Pabst Blue Ribbon, the fifth-largest U.S. brewer, have lent their names to THC seltzers for sale in dispensaries in California. Lagunitas is looking to grow distribution of its THC seltzer, potentially using hemp, to other states, a representative from Cannacraft, its ingredient supplier, said. A spokesperson for Lagunitas said it has no immediate plans to expand, but monitors market development and looks for opportunities as consumer tastes and regulations change. Boston Beer, the maker of Sam Adams, is one of the brewers with the clearest path to eventually enter the U.S. cannabis drinks market although it has not provided a time frame for doing so. The company is already selling its Teapot brand of THC-infused tea in Canada where weed is legal, and in the last year tested a potential U.S. version made from THC derived from hemp. To test the reformulated product, a panel of trained sensory experts sampled Teapot with both THC from hemp and marijuana, and could not taste a difference, said the company’s head of cannabis, Paul Weaver. “This is a source of growth for our organization, flat out,” Weaver said. CAUTIOUS MOVES Big Alcohol is treading carefully in cannabis drinks because state and federal regulations have shifted, and could change again, said five executives at ingredients suppliers and THC beverage brands. California, which has legal weed, banned hemp-based drinks last year to try to prevent children from consuming them. Other states have introduced special taxes or restricted sales, ambiguity that has held alcohol companies back from entering the market. Sen. Mitch McConnell, who helped first legalize hemp in 2018 to support farmers in his home state of Kentucky, in July introduced a provision in a government spending bill that could ban intoxicating products using the plant. McConnell wrote in an op-ed published in the Louisville Courier Journal on July 17 that his efforts are aimed at keeping THC gummies that look like familiar candies out of the hands of children. He did not provide comment beyond the op-ed. Big brewers have been burned by past cannabis investments. In 2022, the biggest U.S. brewer Anheuser-Busch inBev exited a deal with Tilray to research cannabis drinks in Canada. The same year, Molson Coors shuttered its U.S. business selling beverages infused with CBD, a compound in marijuana and hemp that does not have psychoactive effects, citing an uncertain regulatory environment. Constellation Brands restructured its investment in Canadian cannabis company Canopy Growth last year after poor sales. Now, however, hemp-based THC drinks are sold widely. Beyond beer’s declining sales, brewers face an additional squeeze from tariffs, which threaten to push up prices for imported drinks, and Hispanic consumers, who are staying home due to fears of U.S. immigration enforcement. HIGH MARGINS Liquor stores are embracing the buzzy beverages to boost their margins as the drinks, typically more expensive than a six-pack of beer, start to outsell other types of alcohol. Jon Halper, CEO of Minnesota liquor store chain Top Ten Liquors, told Reuters in June that THC beverages now make up 15% of his business after the company introduced them two years ago. By next year, they could grow to rival wine, currently in the mid twenty percent of his sales, he said. Thedrinks take shelf space mostly from beer because they are in coolers, Halper said. The margins on cannabis beverages are higher than those for beer and spirits, helping his firm offset softening alcohol sales. Charleston, South Carolina-based Southern Horizon Logistics, a sister company of Budweiser distributor Southern Crown Partners, is now selling more hemp-based drinks than wine and spirits, said Justin Ashby, the company’s chief administrative officer. Ryan Moses, CEO of Nashville, Tennessee-based beer, wine and spirits distributor Best Brands, said that growth from THC-infused drinks has helped offset flat and declining alcohol sales. Instead of possible layoffs, Moses has been able to re-allocate employees to the new category. “It could be as big as the other categories five to 10 years from now,” Moses said. Consumers like Josh Goldberg, 39, of Lindenhurst, New York, are also trading out beer and tequila for THC seltzers. Goldberg made the switch almost two years ago, and hasn’t had a drink since. “It replaces the physical act of drinking with drinking something else,” Goldberg said. Halper, the owner of Minnesota liquor stores, said the customers buying THC-infused drinks tend to skew female and over the age of 35. “The soccer mom has really embraced the category in a big way,” Halper said. Jessica DiNapoli and Emma Rumney, Reuters
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