 |
|
|
|||||
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Since the pandemic housing boom fizzled out, the number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes has been rising. Here’s a look at the recent historical numbers for January: January 2018: 63,000 January 2019: 76,000 January 2020: 76,000 January 2021: 40,000 January 2022: 32,000 January 2023: 68,000 January 2024: 83,000 January 2025: 115,000 The January figure (115,000 unsold completed new homes) that recently published is the highest level since July 2009 (126,000). Lets take a closer look at the data to better understand what this could mean. To put the number of unsold completed new single-family homes into historic context, ResiClub created a new index: ResiClubs Finished Homes Supply Index. The index is one simple calculation: The number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes divided by the annualized rate of U.S. single-family housing starts. A higher index score indicates a softer national new construction market with greater supply slack, while a lower index score signifies a tighter new construction market with less supply slack. Big picture: The index shows that theres more new construction slack in the 2025 housing market as compared to the 2023 and 2024 markets; however, its still far less slack than the 2008 housing bust. In housing markets and builder communities where unsold completed inventory gets too high, local homebuilders could (and some already have) turn to get bigger affordability adjustments (i.e., bigger incentives or even outright price cuts). That raises the question: Where is this unsold new home inventory located? Where can buyers find deals? While the U.S. Census Bureau doesnt specify the locations of unsold completed single-family new construction, its safe to assume that most of it is in the South, based on where total active housing inventory for sale is increasing and where homebuilders are completing the most homes (see chart below). As ResiClub has documented, both active resale and new homes for sale remain the most limited across huge swaths of the Midwest, Northeast, and Southern California. Thats likely where youll find the least unsold completed new constructionand where builders have greater pricing power. In contrast, active housing inventory for sale has grown the most in the Gulf region, including housing markets like Tampa, Punta Gorda, and San Antonio. These areas saw major price surges during the pandemic housing boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. “The number of builders unsold inventory homes remains above the seasonal norm,” wrote Dillan Krieg, a research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting on LinkedIn. “Weve been tracking this trend for a while as builders rely on speculative starts to capture buyers. However, some builders are facing pricing pressureespecially in key Florida and Texas markets, where resale supply is also well above pre-COVID norms.
Category:
E-Commerce
Americans across all political stripes were understandably concerned when news broke that Elon Musk, the unelected head of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), had gained access to the U.S. Treasury Departments payment systems. These payment systems are responsible for trillions of dollars in federal payments, including things like Social Security benefits and tax refunds. DOGE has felt fishy from the start, a blatant branding stunt that blurs the line between private investment and public interest by advertising Musk’s investment in Dogecoin. Knowing that Musk and his crew of DOGEbags are pursuing deep access to the Treasury Department and its troves of data has led to a number of questions (some, perhaps, a tad paranoid): What exactly do they plan to do with my private information? What personal data is stored in these systems and is any of it from my incognito browsing? Couldnt the worlds richest man find better things to do with his time? Musks ability to access personally identifiable information (PII) from the Treasury Department and other federal agencies is in flux, with the courts weighing in on the legality of that access. That doesnt mean your personal and financial information is necessarily safeeither from this current threat or from any data breaches in the future. Heres what you can do to protect yourself and your finances from the prying eyes of DOGE. Know what information is vulnerable The U.S. Treasurys payment system handles the outlay of federal funds, including federal grants, Social Security and Medicare payments, tax information, and payments to federal contractors. Anyone who has received any of these types of federal dollars (which is pretty much everyone) has their personal information stored on the database. Specifically, the database holds Social Security numbers, tax information, and bank account numbers (for direct deposit of tax refunds, Social Security payments, and other payments). To be clear, the U.S. Treasury Departments payment system is not the only place where this kind of personal information is storedso its prudent to protect yourself even if no classified material was accessed without proper security clearances, as the DOGE claimed on February 2, 2025. How to DOGE-proof your data There are several actions that will help keep you safe, even if any of your personal information falls into the wrong hands. Open a my Social Security account Most policy and financial experts are not worried about the possibility of a Social Security payment breach. If you are currently receiving Social Security benefits, there is no reason to believe your payments are in jeopardy due to DOGE access to the U.S. Treasury. However, a stolen Social Security number could allow an identity thief to open a my Social Security web account in your name and potentially steal your benefits. The my Social Security web portal allows you to check your earnings history, estimate future benefits, and manage current benefits (which includes setting up direct deposit). Its not exactly easy for hackers to access your Social Security benefits, even if they have your Social Security number. The my Social Security web portal takes data safety seriously and uses various tools to verify your identity, including information from your credit reports. So an identity thief would need to have that information, in addition to your SSN, to open an account in your name. But it is still prudent (and helpful) to establish your account now, as it will ensure that no one else opens an account in your name. One important note: If you have already frozen your credit (more on that below), you will need to temporarily unfreeze it to establish your account. Set up an IRS.gov account Scammers with your personal information may also attempt to file a fraudulent tax return in your name to claim a refund. The IRS has identified this as a growing problem over the past few years, with over one million tax returns flagged as potentially fraudulent during the 2023 tax season. Setting up an online individual account with IRS.gov can help ensure that you are the only person filing taxes in your name. This kind of account can also allow you to access your tax records, manage payments, and get virtual assistance. For further security, you can also request an identity protection PIN (IP PIN) from the IRS. This is a six-digit number assigned to you at the beginning of the tax season that you may use to file your taxes instead of your Social Security number. The IP PIN is only shared with you, and you will need to provide it when filing your tax return to verify your identity. The IP PIN is also only valid for one calendar year, so you must request a new one each tax season. If you have your IRS.gov online individual account set up, there is a link to request an IP PIN through that portal. Freeze your credit Freezing your credit means that no one, not even you, can open new credit in your name. (The fact that youre included in the freeze comes in handy when youre tempted by impulse credit. Youll actually be relieved when the cashier denies your Kohls credit card application, 20% discount be damned. Ask me how I know this.) With frozen credit, even if identity thieves have your personal information, they cant open an account in your name. Credit freezes last indefinitely, which means you dont have to worry about renewing the chill. However, you do need to unfreeze your credit anytime you want to open a new line of credit. The credit bureaus allow you to thaw your credit for a specific time frame, after which point the freeze goes back into effect. These time frames can be as short as a day. To freeze your credit, go to each of the three nationwide credit bureau websites and follow their prompts: Equifax Experian Transunion Practice good password hygiene If youve been using Bandit1993 as your password for everything,its time to change itwhether or not the U.S. Treasury Department has access to your bank account. Passwords that use pet names, important dates, your mothers maiden name, or the name of your favorite Toad the Wet Sprocket album (Dulcinea, of course!) are just too easy to guess. And though reusing passwords may feel like a timesaver, it leaves all your accounts vulnerable to any sketchy characters lurking among real TtWS enthusiasts. Good password hygiene requires a unique, strong password for every account. Passwords made up of a random string of 16 or more characters are the most secure, but it would be literally impossible to remember such passwords for every account. Cybersecurity experts suggest creating passphrasesa memorable phrase made up of several unrelated wordsto use as passwords. These can be especially secure if you replace some letters with numbers or symbols. For example, you might choose the words watch, mirror, eclair, and limb, and create the following passphrase: W@tchMirr0rEcl@irL!mb. If you want to hit the easy button on password security, you can ensure unique and strong passwords with a password manager. Just dont use Bandit1993 as your master password for the manager. Death, taxes, and security breaches The particular security threat posed by DOGE may be novel, but its a good idea to remember that our information is always vulnerable in one way or another. Some proactive strategies can protect your Social Security number, tax information, and bank account from a variety of threats. Specifically, opening accounts with my Social Security and IRS.gov can prevent fraudsters from accessing benefits and tax refunds in your name, while requesting an identity protection PIN (IP PIN) from the IRS every tax season offers further protection from identity thieves. Freezing your credit prevents anyoneincluding youfrom opening new credit in your name. The credit bureaus make it easy to freeze and unfreeze your credit on their websites. And using strong, unique passwords on all your accounts is the best way to keep your information secure. Since remembering random strings of characters is impossible, use a password manager to handle the recall for you. The fact that, via DOGE, an unelected billionaire has access to our sensitive data is rage-inducing, but we do have the power to protect ourselves.
Category:
E-Commerce
When Leonard Foglia was invited to direct an opera based on Herman Melvilles masterpiece about a white whale, his first reaction was: Moby-Dick. Thats great! Then I ran to a used bookstore and got the book, he recalled, and I thought: Oh my God, what am I in for here? Its so daunting. I didnt panic, but I thought, How do we do this? How he and his collaborators did it will be on display at the Metropolitan Opera beginning March 3. The opera is composed by Jake Heggie to a libretto crafted by Gene Scheer. To begin with, Scheer had to whittle a novel of more than 600 pages down to a 64-page libretto. He kept as much of Melvilles language as possible, and estimates that 40% to 50% of his libretto can be found in the original text, though he often tweaked the phrasing to make it more singable. Heggie and his initial partner, Terrence McNally (who withdrew for health reasons), had already decided to lop off the opening chapters, which take place on land. They set the entire opera aboard the whale-hunting ship Pequod. Another crucial change was renaming the narrator, calling him Greenhorn to reflect his status as a novice aboard the ship. Now the books famous opening line, Call me Ishmael, is transposed to the very end of the opera when the character has matured. In the novel, Ishmael is telling a story that happened many years ago, Scheer said. But in the theater, you want to see it happen in real time. . . . Were watching him take in all the experiences so that when he says Call me Ishmael, hes ready to write the book. In essence, this opera is the education of Ishmael. Tenor Stephen Costello, who is performing the role for the fifth time and is the lone cast holdover from the Dallas premiere in 2010, sees his character as the only one who really has an arc. He goes on the Pequod because there was nothing for him on land, Costello said. So hes either going to die at sea or figure out who he is. In addition to Costello, the Met cast includes tenor Brandon Jovanovich as the vengeance-obsessed Captain Ahab. Pip, his cabin boy, is written as a trousers role (a male character portrayed by a woman) and will be sung by soprano Janai Brugger. Starbuck, the first mate, will be baritone Peter Mattei, and bass-baritone Ryan Speedo Green will sing the part of Queequeg. Karen Kamensek conducts the eight performances through March 29. The opera, commissioned to celebrate the opening of a new opera house in Dallas, has been a success from the beginning, drawing praise from audiences and criticsand even scholars. Bob Wallace, a professor at Northern Kentucky University and past president of the Melville Society, admired the opera so much that he wrote a book about its creation. Scheer and Heggie did a brilliant job of shrinking the novel to make it fit the stage and yet preserve so much of the essence of it, he said in an interview. As much as critics admired Scheers adaptation and Heggies tuneful, atmospheric, and at times gripping score, they lavished special praise on the physical production, with sets by Robert Brill and projections by Elaine J. McCarthy. The action, Steve Smith wrote in The New York Times, played out against a multimedia-enriched staging that ranged from striking to near-miraculous. Perhaps the most stunning effect is the way animated projections superimposed on a climbing wall that is curved a bit like a skateboard ramp create the illusion of the crew leaving the Pequod to board three whaling boats. A lot of the excitement and thrill of watching this is due to the work of the production team, Scheer said. Lenny kept saying to me, You imagine it the way you want it, and let me figure out how to do it. That often involved imposing unusual physical demands on the singers. For instance, when Pip gets lost at sea, his character sings the equivalent of an operatic mad scene dangling high above the stage, with projections making it appear hes treading water. I said to Janai when we first rehearsed it, Foglia recalled, Okay, you can just get mad at me now, because you have to sing your hardest aria hanging from not even a full harness, just a single wire. In addition, Queequeg and Greenhorn climb up and down ladders to sing at the top of the mastheads. Ahab, who has lost a leg in a prior encounter with Moby-Dick, has to hobble on a wooden prosthesis. And Greenhornfinally named Ishmaelends the opera grabbing onto a whale hook from a passing ship that lifts him to safety. I joke with them that everything opera singers count on in lifehaving both feet planted on the groundIve taken away from them, Foglia said. By Mike Silverman, Associated Press This story was first published February 26, 2025. It was updated on February 28, 2025, to correct the name of Northern Kentucky University.
Category:
E-Commerce
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||