 |
|
|
|||||
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Speaking to investors last week, Lennar co-CEO Jon Jaffe said that the spring 2025 selling season for Americas second-largest homebuilder is off to a slower-than-normal start. We do not see the seasonal pickup typically associated with the beginning of the spring selling season,” Jaffe said. “So we continue to lean into our machine focusing on converting leads and appointments and adjusting incentives as needed to maintain sales pace. These adjustments came in the form of mortgage rate buydowns, price reductions, and closing cost assistance. Last quarter, Lennar spent the equivalent of 13% of home sales on buyer incentivesup from 1.5% in Q2 2022 at the height of the pandemic housing boom. A 13% incentive on a $400,000 home translates to $52,000 worth of incentives. This weaker housing demand environment is causing unsold inventory to tick up. Indeed, since the pandemic housing boom fizzled out, the number of unsold completed new single-family homes in the U.S. has been rising: February 2018: 63,000 February 2019: 75,000 February 2020: 77,000 February 2021: 39,000 February 2022: 31,000 February 2023: 70,000 February 2024: 88,000 February 2025: 119,000 The February figure (119,000 unsold completed new homes) published this week is the highest level since July 2009 (126,000). Lets take a closer look at the data to better understand what this could mean. To put the number of unsold completed new single-family homes into historic context, we created a new index: ResiClubs Finished Homes Supply Index. The index is one simple calculation: The number of unsold completed new single-family homes in the U.S. divided by the annualized rate of U.S. single-family housing starts in the U.S. A higher index score indicates a softer national new construction market with greater supply slack, while a lower index score signifies a tighter new construction market with less supply slack. If you look at unsold completed single-family new builds as a share of single-family housing starts (see chart below), it still shows we’ve gained slack; however, it puts us closer to pre-pandemic 2019 levels than the 2008 housing bust. While the U.S. Census Bureau doesn’t give us a greater market-by-market breakdown on these unsold new builds, we have a good idea where they are based on total active inventory homes for sale (including existing homes) that spiked above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Most of those areas are in the Sun Belt around the Gulf. Some builders are facing pricing pressureespecially in key Florida and Texas markets, where resale supply is also well above pre-COVID norms, Dillan Krieg, an analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting, recently wrote on LinkedIn. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
Category:
E-Commerce
A powerful law firms acquiescence to President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through the legal community, prompted prominent lawyers and former associates to deride the firm, and astounded even its harshest critics. In response to an executive order from the White House targeting Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, the firms chair, Brad Karp, cut a deal with Trump to provide $40 million in free legal support and conduct an audit of the firms DEI employment and hiring protocols. Following the deal, Trump reversed his order, which would have stripped Paul Weiss of its security clearance, terminated its federal contracts, and limited its attorneys access to federal buildings. A day after announcing the agreement with Paul Weiss, the White House directed federal law enforcement to punish other lawyers who challenge Trumps initiatives in court. Until last week, Paul Weiss was best known for its pro bono work for liberal causes, fundraising for Democrats, and standing up to Trump during his first term. Trumps order essentially took revenge on the firm for bringing a pro bono lawsuit against January 6 Capitol rioters and for its ties to Mark Pomerantz, the attorney who pursued criminal charges against Trump in the Manhattan District Attorneys office. But the prestigious global firmwhich represents ExxonMobil against lawsuits claiming the oil giant deceived the public about the dangers of burning fossil fuelsalso has a history of defending corporate giants accused of harming the public. As David Moore at Sludge reported, Paul Weiss has worked to defend a range of corporate clients from liability. The firm led legal defense for the Sackler family against lawsuits for their role in the nations opioid crisis. It fought the U.S. Department of Justice on behalf of tobacco giant Phillip Morris when it was sued for covering up and undermining the link between smoking and cancer. Its recent work has included successfully defending Amazon executives against antitrust claims and shielding JP Morgan Chase and its directors from allegations involving Jeffrey Epsteins criminal activity. Today, Paul Weiss serves as Exxons lead representation in climate deception cases brought against the oil giant by state and local governments. The company is often represented in court by Kannon Shanmugam, a top litigator at the firm who led preparations for a legal challenge against Trump in case Paul Weiss couldnt make a deal with the president, The New York Times reported. The firm had a choice to fight backinstead, they’ve chosen to give in, which suggests that they think their profits are better served by being in Trump’s pocket than by appearing objective, said Haley Czarnek, national director of programs and operations at Law Students for Climate Accountability, a group that advocates for the legal industry to reckon with its role in the climate crisis. In its latest climate scorecard, Czarneks group calculated that Paul Weisswhich scored an F grade for its work involving climate changetopped all other Vault 100 firms in the number of cases in which it represented fossil fuel companies between 2019 and 2023. Still, Czarnek said she was shocked by the deal Paul Weiss made with Trump. To completely and totally capitulate to the whims of a political figure and to turn themselves into another arm of the administration is obscene, she said. Law Students for Climate Accountability was founded as a result of law student protests at Harvard, Yale, NYU, and the University of Michigan in 2020 urging Paul Weiss to drop Exxon as a client. The group wants to send the message that firms cannot be neutral when it comes to the climate, because fossil fuel corporations have big money to throw around and the communities harmed by the climate crisis do not, said Czarnek. (Oil interests donated more than $75 million to Trumps presidential campaign.) At the time those protests began, the firm had just defeated a lawsuit brought by the New York attorney general accusing Exxon of misleading investors about the risks of climate change to its business. While arguing to dismiss that case, Paul Weiss attorneys cited a meeting memo that federal prosecutors say was illegally obtained in a hacking-for-hire scheme targeted at supporters of the lawsuits, which has since been linked back to Exxon by a middleman who pleaded guilty to participating in the hacking. The firm also defended Exxon against a lawsuit brought by Indonesian villagers who said soldiers the company hired to guard its natural gas facility committed murder and torture. The case was settled in 2023, after a former Paul Weiss attorney representing Exxon was admonished by a judge for litigation misconduct that later cost her a job at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Paul Weiss helped offset that controversial work with its large pro bono practice, touting its unwavering commitment to providing pro bono legal assistance to the most vulnerable members of our society and in support of the public interest. Now part of that practice will be dedicated to issues championed by Trumpthough the firms chairman, Karp, promised its staff that the president would not be dictating which of those issues the firm chose. It makes really transparent what pro bono has always been aboutwhich is doing good work for the firm, not for the public, said Czarnek, who said that firms will typically only take on pro bono work that doesnt conflict with the interests of their corporate clients. The pro bono arm of any firm is a PR operation that exists to bolster the reputation of the firm, she said. Another law firm for major fossil fuel companies, Gibson Dunn, has used pro bono work in a similar way. During the first Trump administration, Gibson Dunn partner Ted Boutrous, who regularly argues on behalf ofChevron, offered free representation to those targeted by the president in violation of the First Amendmentand the firm represented CNN journalist Jim Acostawho had his press pass to the White House revokedamong others. Gibson Dunn represents Chevron against climate deception lawsuits, and just won a nearly $670 million verdict for Energy Transfer in its lawsuit against Greenpeace for assisting protests against the Dakota Access Pipelineone of several cases the firm has pursued that legal experts say are intended to chill the free speech of its clients opponents. The scales may continue to tip against communities and advocates also targeted by the Trump administration, who say theyve been unable to obtain legal representation as law firms fearing retribution yield to Trumps threats. But Exxon, at least, will still have its lawyers. This piece was originally published on ExxonKnews, a project with the Center for Climate Integrity.
Category:
E-Commerce
Law school applications typically spike in times of financial and labor market distress, but a significant recent surge may be more driven by other factors. According to the Law School Admissions Council (LSAC)which, among other things, administers the law school admissions test (LSAT)application volume for the 2025 school year is up 20.5% compared to last year. When we ask test takers and applicants Why are you applying to law school?, the primary reason is to make a difference, says LSACs interim president and CEO Susan Krinsky. As a result, she attributes the latest increase to the world around us, explaining there have been a few very interesting Supreme Court cases, and then we’ve got the political environment. Krinsky adds that election years often see somewhat higher law school applicant numbers, but such a significant jump is usually only typical in times of severe economic distress, like the 2008 financial crisis or the early pandemic. We will often see at least a small bump in U.S. presidential election years, but not like this one. This one is unique, she says, adding that while financial motivations are likely still a significant motivator they now appear to be secondary. The increase in law school applications also follows a similar spike in business school applications this year, which experts also believe was more divorced from underlying economic conditions than is typical. Like law school hopefuls, many business school applicants said they wanted the degree to make a greater impact, as well as to achieve greater work-life balance, and to guard themselves against the unpredictable effects of artificial intelligence. Competition is heating up Not only is the number of law school applicants up this year, but LSAC data suggests each is also applying to more programs, suggesting significant competition for limited spots. The number of people applying is up about 20%. The [number of] applications they’re submitting, however, is up more like 23%, Krinsky says. I don’t think law schools are going to enlarge the size of their classes, given that its very important to law schools that their students get jobs at the other end, and its hard to predict what the market will look like three years from now. According to The Wall Street Journal, the 166 year-old University of Michigan Law School recently reached a new application volume record, while Creighton University School of Law reported a 25% increase. A spokesperson from Columbia Law School also confirmed to Fast Company that their law school, too, has seen an increase in application volume for its incoming cohort. Having done this for a long time, most of these increases and decreases are plus or minus 5%when its a big moment, its maybe 10%, says Georgetown Law School dean of admissions Andy Cornblatt. For it to be up 20% nationally, and 25% at Georgetown, is highly unusual. Prior to the fall of 2021 Cornblatt says no U.S. law school had surpassed about 12,600 applicants in a single academic year. During the pandemic, applications for Georgetowns 650-person law school hit a new record of 14,000 applications, and Cornblatt says this year is on pace to match or surpass that figure. In recessions, applications go up every time. Thats not this, he says. If you go back over time, these presidential election yearsparticularly recentlygenerate an enormous amount of interest in law and politics and policy and the courts; all of those things become front and center. Cornblatt adds that some economic uncertainty, looser policies around entrance exam requirements, and the heightened visibility of legal decisions in the social media age are all contributing factors, but none alone would explain such a significant surge. I tell students the playing field used to be boardroomsthat’s your grandparents generation, he says. The playing field now is the courtroom, and that’s where this new surge of applicants wants to be, because that’s where the action is. What an historically competitive year means for applicants The significant and widely unexpected increase in interest has forced law schools like Georgetown to take a somewhat different approach to their admissions process this year, Cornblatt says, with significant implications for applicants. People who last year would have been admitted are now probably sitting on a waitlist, and people who would have been wait-listed were probably denied, he explains. The good news is I am being very conservative with the number of people I’ve admitted, and as a result, I think we will be much more active on the waiting list than we have been in the past. In other words, being wait-listed in this highly competitive year should be taken as a more encouraging sign than in a typical year. Applicants competing for those limited spots are also encouraged to apply at more schools than they might otherwise, a trend already emerging in the LSAC data. Part of it is having a really high LSAT scoremore competitive than the average of the school, says Claudia Nelson, the director of operations and client relations at higher education admissions consulting firm Admit Advantage. If you want to be seen as a competitive applicant you need to also have really excellent materialspersonal statements, diversity statements, other addendumand apply early. The start of a four-year trend? Though applicants are probably too late to start their application for the 2025 school year, Nelson advises those seeking admissions in future years to get started as soon as essay questions are made public, typically in mid-to-late-summer. After all, if application volume is indeed being driven by political turmoil, Nelson says law school admissions are likely to remain highly competitive in the years ahead. We’ve seen a lot of applicants report that they want to go into civil rights and human rightsand I want to say that [the repeal of] Roe v. Wade was probably a big wake-up call for peopleso its about more than just whats happening in the [labor and financial] markets, she says. If all else stays consistent, well probably see an increase throughout this [presidential] administration.
Category:
E-Commerce
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||