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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Speaking before the U.S. Senate this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that a decade or more down the road, homeowners in some parts of the country wont be able to find home insurance. Both banks and insurance companies are pulling out of coastal areas or areas where there are a lot of fires. So what that is going to mean is that if you fast-forward 10 or 15 years, there are going to be regions of the country where you cant get a mortgage,” Powell told Congress. “There wont be [mortgage] ATMs, there wont be banks [lending mortgages], so it’ll fall on homeowners and residents. But it’ll also fall on state and local governments. Which is what you see happening now, where they’re stepping in, in states where insurance is going away. You’re seeing states step in because they want those areas to remain prosperous. Hearing that comment made by a professor or analyst is one thing. But hearing it come from the Fed Chair is a bit unnerving for the housing sector. It raises the question: Is there any data out there to suggest which housing markets could be at the highest risk of bank and home insurer pullbacks? ResiClub did some digging and found a new proprietary analysis made by First Street, which forecastsbased on models estimating property-specific risk and expected climate riskhow much county-level home insurance premiums could shift between 2025 and 2055. To see where homeowners and investors could be impacted the most, ResiClub visualized First Streets county-level home insurance forecasts. (Please note that forecasting in general isnt ever guaranteedlet alone when a firm is trying to project three whole decades into the future. If you went back and found 30-year forecasts for anything finance-related made in 1995, theyd likely be pretty far off from how things transpired by 2025.) We asked First Street if their analysis accounted for future inflation as well. These [insurance] values are based on todays dollars with the only adjustment being related to the increase in climate exposure over time, but not to any expectations around inflation or market adjustments. . . . These values are not inflation adjusted in any way, First Street tells ResiClub. Among the 500 most populous counties, these are the 20 where First Street expects the highest 30-year growth in home insurance premiums: Orleans Parish, Louisiana: +634% Miami-Dade County, Florida: +590% Pinellas County, Florida: +451% St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana: +351% Duval County, Florida: +333% El Dorado County, California: +291% St. Johns County, Florida: +290% Placer County, California: +256% Galveston County, Texas: +251% Manatee County, Florida: +242% Volusia County, Florida: +242% Clay County, Florida: +240% Palm Beach County, Florida: +195% Brevard County, Florida: +189% Broward County, Florida: +182% Coconino County, Arizona: +173% Hillsborough County, Florida: +162% Nueces County, Texas: +158% Hernando County, Florida: +152% Lafayette Parish, Louisiana: +149% The heightened risk of flooding, hurricanes, and tropical storms is ultimately why the First Street model projects the greatest insurance hikes around the Gulf. In fact, 12 of the 20 major U.S. counties expected to see the biggest increase are in Florida. As ResiClub has previously reported, homeowners in these areas are already experiencing elevated insurance hikes. While the median annual U.S. home insurance premium increased by 33% between the end of 2020 and the end of 2023, it surged more than 80% in many Florida counties.
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Like most Americans, I took Social Security for granted for most of my life. Until about 10 years ago, I carried a vague idea that the program had been promised to Moses on Mount Sinai (whaddya mean Grandpa didnt have a Social Security number until he was 27?). Combined with that assumption was my hazy belief that its benefits would dry up by the time I reached my sixties. My eyes were opened when I was asked to literally write the book on Social Security in 2015. (Forgive the shameless plug.) In researching and writing that book, I learned that Social Security represents the best of American federal policyand that the widespread misunderstanding of this program puts itand usin peril. Since then, I have become a dedicated Social Security fangirl who believes its important for all Americans to better understand and appreciate this program. Heres why. The gritty origin story The Social Security Act was signed into law on August 14, 1935, a date that dedicated students of history will recognize as smack-dab in the middle of the Great Depression. Thats not a coincidence. America faced a staggering 25% unemployment rate during the 1930s, and more than half the elderly population lived in poverty. This was not the economic reality Americans wanted for their grandparentsor themselves. In 1934, President Franklin D. Roosevelt appointed Labor Secretary Frances Perkins (the first woman appointed to a presidential cabinet and a stone-cold badass) to be chair of a newly formed committee on economic security. Perkins created a report that included a legislative proposal for what would become the Social Security Act. An elegant design A common misconception about Social Security is that you are contributing money to your future benefits. You might assume there is an account with your name on it where your contributions go to wait until you retire. Its an understandable mistake since thats how your 401(k) and other retirement accounts work. But Social Security was designed as a direct handover from current workers to current beneficiaries. By setting up the program so that people currently working made contributions to people currently retired, the government does not have to hold or invest money for the future. This design means that Social Security can never run out of money. The money is consistently transferred from current workers to current beneficiaries, which means there will be money for benefits when you retire. Yes, you. A history of tinkering Since Social Security is federal legislation, its subject to change as the economy and society change. For example, the original Social Security Act excluded coverage for many jobs, including agriculture, domestic work, teachers, librarians, and nurses. The program was expanded to include these in 1950. Some other major changes included the 1962 legislation that allowed dependent husbandsnot just wivesto receive benefits after becoming widowed, and the 1972 introduction of cost of living adjustments (COLA) to benefits. One of the biggest changes occurred in 1983, in anticipation of the future mass retirement of baby boomers. Between 2011 and 2029, approximately 10,000 boomers turn 65 every single day, which is a rate of retirement that Social Security was not originally designed to handle. The 1983 legislative changes to Social Security gradually raised the age of full retirement for boomers and subsequent generations, lowering the cost of their benefits. Future planning The 1983 legislation, like every change to Social Security, increased the programs complexity, which is a common source of frustration about the program. While changes to the program have sometimes led to unintended consequences, every single legislative decision reflects good faith, good intentions, and long-term planning. Consider the fact that in 1983, the oldest boomers were in their thirties, but Congress was already looking ahead to their retirement. Thats because the United States is the only country in the world that uses 75-year projections for its social insurance program. Most other countries use a shorter timeline. Only Japan, with a 95-year projection, uses a longer one. This kind of forethought and projection means were (theoretically) able to avert oncoming problems decades before they arrive. The greatly exaggerated reports of Social Securitys demise When I tell a contemporary that they can count on Social Security in the future, they often struggle to believe meand for good reason. You dont have to go far to find headlines describing the programs imminent insolvency. Heres the reality: The Social Security Trust Fund will run out of money in 2035. At that point, the Social Security program will only be able to pay out approximately 83% of promised benefits. Most people focus on the run out of money half of that sentence, glossing right over the youll get 83% of your promised benefits part. While a 17% reduction in your promised benefits is crappy, its a hell of a lot better than no benefits at all. Thats why I encourage Americans to remember that Social Security is facing an imminent shortfall, not an imminent bankruptcy. To avert the shortfall, Congress just needs to make some adjustments to the legislation. (Yeah, Im not holding my breath, either). But this is a fixable problem, if we as a country are willing to do the work. The real threat to Social Security I like to tell people that if Social Security benefits are not there for us when we retire, it means we have bigger problems than retirement income. Because I have a waggish sense of humor, Ill often name the kinds of fantastical and unlikely threats that would truly dismantle Social Securitya meteor heading straight for Earth, a robot apocalypse, or a fascist takeover of the American government. In other words, Social Security is about as close to a financial guarantee as we can have, but that doesnt mean its immune to threatsespecially the outlandish threts that are a lot less funny than they used to be. As a federal program, Social Security can be fundamentally changed or even rescinded with the stroke of a pen. And its more likely this will happen if the American citizens who are the beneficiaries of this amazing, flawed, and life-saving program believe the lies about it. This is why Ill spend Social Securitys 90th year touting its merits to everyone who will listen. The better we understand and claim Social Security as our own, the more secure it will beeven in the unlikely event of a zombie apocalypse.
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E-Commerce
The Oscars dont have a Best Poster category. (Or even a Best Title Sequence category, which they did sort of have for the very first Academy Awards in 1929 beforefor shamedropping it in 1930.) So this year, as in the past, we asked some of our favorite poster designers which Best Picture nominee should win Best Poster. Like book cover designers, key art creators are tasked with the unwieldy ask of distilling an entire universe of story into a single visual. Its another standard of excellence in cinemaand wed argue that theres indeed correlation between great posters and great films. Consider: In our (admittedly wildly unscientific!) 2023 best poster poll, all participants nearly unanimously selected the off-the-wall treatments for the off-the-wall Everything Everywhere All At Oncewhich took home Best Picture. Last year, Vasilis Marmatakiss unsurprisingly inventive posters for the unsurprisingly inventive Poor Things dominatedand the film subsequently nabbed Best Actress, Best Production Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Costume Design. Beneath our water-cooler correlation lies another truth: When a designer utterly nails the brief and creates a poster that rises to a films artistic heights, its transcendentand it often yields the singular image were left with in our minds long after leaving the theater. Below, a panel of prosJay Bennett, who has worked with Netflix and others; Marie Bergeron, who has worked with Sony, Marvel, Ubisoft, and Warner Bros.; Tori Huynh, who has worked with the Criterion Collection, A24, HBO and more; and Eric Garza and Mitch Putnam, creative directors of pop culture and poster powerhouse Mutantsound off on their picks for this years best Best Picture poster. [Photo: A24] The most effective movie posters make you want to see the movie. A24s one-sheet for The Brutalist delivers fully in this regard. Director Brady Corbets film epic is a bold and uncompromising work that celebrates minimalism and maximalism in equal measure. The poster supports that minimalist/maximalist approach with a design-forward layout that follows principles of Bauhaus and Brutalist design. The art challenges our expectations of traditional movie posters with its bold typography and asymmetrical layout, and is punctuated by an equally impactful visual of Lady Liberty turned on her headsignaling some of the films main themes. Its not just an advert for the film, it feels like an extension of its worldview. Eric Garza [Photo: MUBI] This one got my attention because of its simplicity, boldness, and because it says what it needs to say with very few elements. It’s [difficult to encapsulate a] story with only one image, and I always think that the best posters nail this part. Also, I’ve seen the film and it’s one of my favorites this year, so maybe [thats why I chose it, too]. Marie Bergeron [Photo: MUBI] One of my favorite films of 2024 was The Substance. I love when horror films center the unimaginable dread of being a woman. Strange, sterile, and a pastel gore nightmare, I feel like the posters capture the bizarre icons within the film really well. What came first, the chicken or the egg? Or was the chicken modified, processed and fried beyond our comprehension [so] it is no longer recognizable from its original form? Summarizing all of these elements, and without showing Demi Moore’s face, no less, is such a bold choice. I also love the condensed typeface they used for the title and kept within the entirety of the film. From the look of the key art into the picture, I appreciate the commitment to consistency within the branding. Tori Huynh [Photo: Focus Features] I have landed on the U.K. one-sheet for Conclave. I think it’s a bold approach for what is essentially a reliious drama to lead with such a vibrant, thriller-esque palette, with the character arrangement creating a hint towards the split of the vote. The highlighted eye as Cardinal Lawrence’s main weapon in this conflict is a nice touch. Jay Bennett [Photo: NEON] Many times, independent studios will try to push posters that feature big, loud graphic design or illustrative work to help their films stand out. That can be effective, but sometimes a simple piece of set photography is so perfect, it has to be used. Anora had my favorite poster of the year for exactly this reason. The photo screams youth, energy, love and euphoria, which is a hell of a lot to convey in one shot. The type perfectly complements the image and communicates everything necessary while also stepping back just enough so as to not compete for focal dominance. Uncomplicated in its design, this is one of those I couldve done that posters. But you probably couldnt have. Mitch Putnam
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