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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings beyond seasonality could suggest a market that is heating up. Since the national Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in 2022, the national power dynamic has slowly been shifting directionally from sellers to buyers. Of course, across the country that shift has varied. Generally speaking, local housing markets where active inventory has jumped above pre-pandemic 2019 levels have experienced softer home price growth (or outright price declines) over the past 36 months. Conversely, local housing markets where active inventory remains far below pre-pandemic 2019 levels have, generally speaking, experienced more resilient home price growth over the past 36 months. Where is national active inventory headed? National active listings are on the rise on a year-over-year basis (+13% between November 2024 and November 2025). This indicates that homebuyers have gained some leverage in many parts of the country over the past year. Some sellers markets have turned into balanced markets, and more balanced markets have turned into buyers markets. Nationally, were still below pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels (-6% below November 2019) and some resale markets, in particular chunks of the Midwest and Northeast, still remain tight-ish. While national active inventory is still up year-over-year, the pace of growth has slowed in recent monthsmore than typical seasonality would suggestas some sellers have thrown in the towel and delisted in weak/soft markets. Here are the November inventory/active listings totals, according to Realtor.com: November 2017 -> 1,228,077 November 2018 -> 1,273,047 November 2019 -> 1,143,332 November 2020 -> 683,822 November 2021 -> 512,241 November 2022 -> 750,200 November 2023 -> 755,489 November 2024 -> 953,452 November 2025 -> 1,072,417 If we maintain the current year-over-year pace of inventory growth (+118,965 homes for sale), we’d have 1,191,382 active inventory come November 2026. Below is the year-over-year active inventory percentage change by state: window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); While active housing inventory is rising in most markets on a year-over-year basis, some markets still remain tight-ish (although it’s loosening in those places too). As ResiClub has been documenting, both active resale and new homes for sale remain the most limited across huge swaths of the Midwest and Northeast. Thats where home sellers next spring are likely, relatively speaking, to have more power than their peers in many Southern markets. In contrast, active housing inventory for sale has neared or surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels in many parts of the Sun Belt and Mountain West, including metro area housing markets such as Punta Gorda and Austin. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home prices getting stretched compared to local incomes. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend was accelerated further by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives (if they have the margins to do so) to maintain sales in a shifted market, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market: Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. That puts additional upward pressure on resale inventory. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); At the end of November 2025, 18 states were above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington. (The District of Columbiawhich we left out of this analysisis also back above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels too. Softness in D.C. propers predates the current admins job cuts.) window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); Big picture: Over the past few years, weve observed a softening across many housing markets as strained affordability tempers the fervor of a market that was unsustainably hot during the Pandemic Housing Boom. While home prices are falling some in pockets of the Sun Belt, a big chunk of Northeast and Midwest markets still eked out a little price appreciation this year. Nationally aggregated home prices have been pretty close to flat in 2025. Below is another version of the table abovebut this one includes every month since January 2017: window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
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E-Commerce
Researchers on the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI) and leaders of many of the major platformsfrom Jeffrey Hinton to Yoshua Bengio, Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Elon Muskhave voiced concerns that AI could lead to the destruction of humanity itself. Even the stated odds from some of these AI experts, with an end-days scenario as high as 25%, are still wildly optimistic, according to Nate Soares, president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) and coauthor of the recent best-selling book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Thats because, as he argues in the book, the track we’re on with AI is headed for disasterunless something radically changes. The book, cowritten with researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky, explores potential threats posed by “superintelligence,” or theoretical AI systems that are smarter than humans. We’re sort of growing these AIs that act in ways nobody asked for, that have these drives and emergent behaviors nobody intended, Soares said at last months World Changing Ideas Summit, cohosted by Fast Company and Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C. If we get superhumanly intelligent AIs that are pursuing ends nobody wanted, I think the default outcome is that literally everybody on earth dies,” he added. A reckoning for the world Likening the work of some AI leaders to building an airplane while flying with no landing gear, Soares said that not enough attention is being paid to the technologys potentially negative outcomes. The amount of global investment being poured into AI shows that people are betting it wont be a total dud, he said, but there are two other crazy options: AI radically automates all human labor, so the economy is captured by a very small group, or it becomes super intelligent and kills everyone. The world hasn’t really quite come to understand just how crazy this AI stuff is, Soares said. But there is some reason for optimism, Soares said, as a lot of people are worried about the future of AI, which makes for a brittle situation if more peopleall of us includedvoice their concerns. Maybe if enough people are like, Wait, we’re doing what now? What the heck? Soares said. Maybe that will shake the whole world into saying, Holy crap, let’s change course.
Category:
E-Commerce
The Senate is heading toward dueling partisan votes on health care this week after Republicans said Tuesday that they had united around a plan, for now, that would allow COVID-era health care subsidies to expire.Both the Republican plan, which would replace the subsidies with new savings accounts, and a Democratic bill to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits for three years lack the bipartisan support needed for passage. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Tuesday that the Democratic legislation does not include enough reforms to curb fraud or limit high-income recipients. That legislation “will fail,” Thune said.At the same time, Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called the Republican plan “phony” and said the bill is “dead on arrival.”The burden is on Republicans “to vote with us,” Schumer said of Democrats, who forced a 43-day government shutdown over the issue.With Republicans and Democrats unable to agree or even really negotiate with each other millions of people could see increases in their premium payments when the tax credits expire in January. Both sides blame the other for the increasingly likely failure of Congress to act, bringing the issue into the midterm election year with political talking points but little in the way of compromise on the subsidies that have helped keep costs down for many of the more than 24 million Americans. Tentative GOP unity after years of disagreement The Republican unity around a single plan, in the Senate at least, comes as the party has wrangled for more than a decade over how to replace former President Barack Obama’s signature law, also known as Obamacare.The legislation by Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, the chairman of the Senate Health, Labor, Education and Pensions Committee, and Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, emerged this week from many different proposals from Republican senators, including some that would have extended the tax credits with new limits.Despite those differences, Republicans worked to project unity as they emerged from a lunch meeting Tuesday. Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who had just recently proposed legislation to extend the subsidies with new income caps, said he is now “hyper-focused” on Cassidy and Crapo’s legislation. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who had his own bill to reduce taxes on health care, said the consensus bill “isn’t perfect, but I’m willing to give it a go.”“I just think that Republicans can’t do nothing,” Hawley said after the meeting. “I think we ought to be doing everything we can to try and get down the cost of health care.”Thune said there will now be “something out there that Republicans will be able to talk about and support and vote for, and then we’ll see.”There was less consensus in the House, where moderate Republicans who are up for reelection have been pushing Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to extend the subsidies with new reforms while the right flank of the party has demanded deeper reforms to the ACA. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters that GOP leadership will present options to members on Wednesday for potential votes next week. Proposed health savings accounts The bill by Cassidy and Crapo would let the current subsidies, first put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic, expire. The legislation would then make payments to the new health savings accounts for the next two years, for enrollees making less than 700% of the federal poverty level who pick lower-cost, higher-deductible bronze or catastrophic health insurance plans.Eligible enrollees between the ages of 18 and 49 would get $1,000 per year, while those between 50 and 64 would get $1,500. The money could be spent to defray out-of-pocket expenses like copays and deductibles, or to purchase other qualified health-related items directly from companies, but not to cover monthly premiums.Cassidy and Crapo say their bill provides better support to Americans than the expiring subsidies do because it hands money directly to the people, giving them the power to decide how to spend or save it a message President Donald Trump has echoed in recent weeks. Republicans say the plan could also cut down on fraud in the health care system, pointing to a Government Accountability Office report that found some fake recipients were able to get coverage.The bill also includes new language limiting the use of Affordable Care Act money for abortion a dealbreaker for moderate Democrats who say they would have been willing to negotiate on the issue. Uncertainty over costs Health analysts warn that the plan won’t do much to help lower-income Affordable Care Act enrollees who rely on subsidies to afford their monthly insurance fees.The Republicans’ plan also requires enrollees to pick higher-deductible plans to be eligible for the payments meaning heavy users of health insurance may end up saddled with out-of-pocket costs far higher than the new influx of cash in their pockets.Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said the GOP proposal “leaves middle-class Americans saddled with sky-high premiums, and Big Insurance makes out like bandits by selling junk plans to families that desperately need health coverage.”“Instead of working with Democrats to stop this health cost crisis, Republicans are selling snake oil,” Wyden said. Swenson reported from New York. Associated Press reporter Kevin Freking contributed to this report. Mary Clare Jalonick and Ali Swenson, Associated Press
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E-Commerce
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