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Global markets appeared to take the U.S. strike against nuclear targets in Iran in stride as investors watched Monday to see how Iran will react.The price of oil initially jumped more than 2%, fell and then regained about half that much. U.S. stock futures edged lower and share benchmarks in Europe and Asia also were mostly lower.The attacks on three Iranian sites raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran and left questions about what remains of Tehran’s nuclear program. It also increased the possibility that Iran might retaliate, potentially disrupting shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which much of the world’s crude oil passes.The big unknown is what Iran will do, analysts said.The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, was up 1.2% at $77.91 per barrel. U.S. benchmark crude climbed 1.3% to $74.79.The future for the S&P 500 was little changed, while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%. Treasury yields were steady.In Europe, Germany’s DAX lost 0.5% to 23,230.54 and the CAC 40 in Paris fell 0.6% to 7,541.25. Britain’s FTSE 100 shed 0.2% to 8,761.53.Overall, there was no sign of panic.“I believe what we are thinking is or the thinking is that it is going to be a short conflict. The one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we’ll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction,” said Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan.The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets.Closing off the Strait of Hormuz would be technically difficult but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without U.S. Navy escorts. As a major oil producer, Iran may be reluctant to close down the waterway, which is used to transport its own crude, mostly to China. Oil is a major revenue source for the regime.“The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,” Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary.Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said disrupting traffic through the strait would be “economic suicide” and would elicit a U.S. response.“I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio said.When asked about that at a routine briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters in Beijing that “China is willing to strengthen communication with Iran and relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation” of the conflict.“The Persian Gulf and its adjacent waters are important international channels for cargo and energy trade. Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community,” he said.Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co said he expects Iranian leaders to refrain from drastic measures and oil futures to ease back after the initial fears blow over.Disrupting shipping would be “a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,” Kloza said.Writing in a report, Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed that Tehran leaders would likely hold back.“They aren’t crazy,” he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. “The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.”Other experts weren’t so sure.Countries are not always rational actors and Tehran could lash out for political or emotional reasons, said Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst who has covered oil markets for 45 years.“If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,” Lipow said. That would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways, he said.Much of East Asia depends on oil imported through the strait. Taiwan’s Taiex fell 1.4% while the Kospi in South Korea slipped 0.2%.In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% lower, with gains for defense contractors, oil companies and miners helping to make up for broad losses.“The U.S. strike on Iran certainly is very good for defense equipment,” Newman of Atris Advisory said, noting that both Japan and South Korea have sizable military manufacturing hubs.Australia’s S&P/ASX fell 0.4%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng regained lost ground, climbing 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.7%.In currency dealings, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.82 Japanese yen from 146.66 yen. The euro fell to $1.1464 from $1.1473. AP Business Writer Bernard Condon in New York and AP video journalist Mayuko Ono in Tokyo contributed. Elaine Kurtenbach and Bernard Condon, AP Business Writer
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E-Commerce
Kroger Co. is joining the list of retailers that plan to scale back on brick-and-mortar locations this year. The grocery giant said in its first-quarter earnings report on Friday that it will shutter roughly 60 stores over the next 18 months, a move that it expects will provide a “modest financial benefit.” Kroger said the store closures will not impact its guidance for 2025, during which it expects operating profit of between $4.7 billion and $4.9 billion. The move to close stores comes about six months after Kroger’s proposed takeover of rival grocery chain Albertsons failed to pass muster with regulators. The $25 billion merger was abandoned, but it was a messy breakup, with both companies ultimately suing each other in attempts to claw back damages. Kroger’s newly announced closures are likely to attract further criticism of the company in some impacted communities. Although the retailer says all employees affected by the closings will be offered roles at other locations, many cities are already struggling with so-called food deserts, and the loss of even a single grocery store can sometimes create additional hardships for residents. Which Kroger stores will close? Kroger has not provided a list of stores that will be impacted. However, local media outlets have reported on a number of locations that have recently closed or will close in the coming months, with some citing local unions or elected officials. Dickinson, TX Location is closing in June (Houston Chronicle) Gassaway, WV Location is closing in August (WCHS) The Woodlands, TX Sterling Ridge location reported closed in May (Community Impact) McKinney, TX University Drive location is closing (WFAA) Dickinson, TX Location reportedly closing in June (Community Impact) Abington, VA Location reportedly closing in September (WFHG) Bristol, TN Location reportedly closing in September. (WFHG) It’s unclear if the above locations are part of the 60 locations included in Kroger’s earnings disclosure on Friday. Fast Company reached out to Kroger to ask for additional information on which 60 locations will be impacted, including a timeline for when the stores are expected to close. We will update this story if we hear back. Kroger Co. stock (NYSE: KR) rose almost 10% on Friday following its earnings report. Cincinnati-based Kroger operates 1,239 grocery stores in 16 states, according to its store locator. It owns a number of well-known regional chains, including Ralphs, QFC, Fred Meyer, and Food 4 Less. The United Food & Commercial Workers Union, which represents Kroger workers at many stores, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. This story is developing and may be updated.
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E-Commerce
Misbehavior on digital platforms can be tricky to manage. Issue warnings, and you risk not deterring bad behavior. Block too readily, and you might drive away your user base and open yourself to accusations of censorship. But a new study, presented at the Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, suggests a more effective path forward. Researchers at Northeastern University and Roblox conducted two large-scale field experiments involving more than 770,000 Roblox users to study how suspension duration affects user behavior. The first experiment compared one-hour versus one-day suspensions for users with a single recent policy violation. The second experiment compared one- to three-day suspensions for users with a second recent violation. They tracked outcomes such as likelihood of reoffending, number of subsequent violations, user reports against offenders, and engagement metrics like days active and total time spent on the platform. Its very common for platforms to issue consequences for violations of the community standards, but theres actually not a ton of causal evidence in the research about how effective different kinds of consequences are, says Jeffrey Gleason, one of the studys authors and a researcher at Northeastern University and Roblox. The study found that longer suspensions significantly reduced reoffense rates, the number of consequences, and user reports. Longer suspensions also appeared to make users think twice before misbehaving again, increasing the time it took for them to reoffend. The longer the suspension, the greater its impact on user behavior. A one-day suspension reduced reoffense rates by 6.7% compared to a one-hour suspension, while a three-day suspension reduced it by 8.1% compared to a one-day suspension. The deterrent effect lasted for at least three weeks, though its impact diminished over time, suggesting that some users eventually reverted to old behaviors. One promising approach is to address bad behavior early. Harsh penalties for first-time violations were more effective at preventing repeat offenses. A one-day suspension lowered reoffense rates by 12.6% for first-time offenders, compared to just 4.4% for frequent violators. And despite concerns that suspensions might drive users away, the study found that users generally remained active on the platform after being banned. Theres always been this long debate around what is the trade-off between safety and engagement, and the fact that were seeing that you can do really important safety-related work while not sacrificing engagement is maybe not surprising for us, but may be surprising for other platforms, says Alex Leavitt, principal researcher for trust and safety at Roblox and co-author of the paper. The experiments only tested suspensions of up to three days, and the effects of longer suspensions remain unknown. Its also uncertain how these findings would translate to other platforms. Still, the research offers valuable insights into curbing bad behavior online. We now have more public evidence around that fact, says Leavitt, so we can lean into that.
Category:
E-Commerce
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