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The first Atlantic hurricane of the year could be upon us. Right now, Tropical Storm Erin is making its way through the tropical Atlantic, where it is currently to the east of several Caribbean nations, including Dominica and St Lucia. But as the storm continues to move west-northwest towards the continental United States, it is expected to strengthen, potentially becoming a Category 4 hurricane. Heres what you need to know about the first possible Atlantic hurricane of the year, and the maps you can view to track its path. Will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane? Its likely Tropical Storm Erin will become a hurricane however, that outcome cannot be guaranteed. According to a recent bulletin from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, as of Friday, Erin is on track to become a hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, the bulletin states. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could become a major hurricane by this weekend. As of 5:00 AM AST Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, cautions that heavy rain is expected across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. The agency says the rains may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week. However, even though the storm is still growing while its moving west-northwest, the National Hurricane Center is uncertain whether Erin, even if it becomes a hurricane, will make landfall in the Caribbean or on the East Coast of the United States. Yet the agency cautions that even if Erin doesn’t make landfall, the force still poses a threat. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase, the NHC says. Use these maps to track Tropical Storm Erin Those who want to track the storms progress can do so by viewing a number of maps the National Hurricane Center regularly updates. Those maps include: The Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook The Tropical Storm Erin interactive map A map that shows the Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds A map that displays the Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center These maps are regularly updated, so if you want to track the storm throughout the weekend, you should check back on them often. Erin isnt the only hurricane to look out for If Erin does become a hurricane, it will only be the first of many that the Atlantic is expected to bear this year. In an August 7 post, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that there will be between five and nine hurricanes this season, and between two and five of those hurricanes will be major. In addition to the hurricanes, this season is expected to experience an additional 13-18 named storms. The August 7 update to NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for: 13-18 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes & 2-5 major hurricanes.Our prediction for an 'above-normal' season remains on track.PREPARE NOW.–> See our news release + downloadable infographics at: pic.twitter.com/ECCqvlrBps— NOAA (@NOAA) August 7, 2025
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E-Commerce
Shoppers spent at a healthy pace in July, particularly at the nations auto dealerships, even as President Donald Trump‘s tariffs start to take a toll on jobs and lead to some price increases. But the figures also underscore anxiety among Americans: all the uncertainty around the expansive duties appears to be pushing them to step up their purchases of furniture and other items ahead of the expected price increases, analysts said. Retail sales rose a solid 0.5% last month from the previous month, and June spending was stronger than expected, according to the Commerce Department’s report released Friday. June’s retail sales were revised upward to 0.9% from the original 0.6% increase, the agency said. The pace in July matched economists’ estimates. The increases followed two consecutive months of spending declines in April and May. Excluding auto sales, which have been volatile since Trump imposed tariffs on many foreign-made cares, retail sales rose 0.3% in July. Auto sales rose 1.6%. They appear to have returned roughly to normalized spending after a surge in March and April as Americans attempted to get ahead of Trumps 25% duty on imported cars and parts and then a slump after that, according to Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The data showed solid spending across various stores. Business at clothing stores and online retailers saw increases. Business at home furnishings and furniture stores had strong sales gains. However, at electronics stores, sales were down. And business at restaurants, the lone services component within the Census Bureau report and a barometer of discretionary spending, also fell, as shoppers eat at home to save money. A category of sales that excludes volatile sectors such as gas, cars, and restaurants rose last month by 0.5% from the previous month. The figure feeds into the Bureau of Economic Analysiss consumption estimate and is sign that consumers are still spending on some discretionary items. Tuan Nguyen, an economist at RSM US, noted the difficulty of attributing the entire July gain to resilient American shoppers given so much uncertainty surrounding the economy and tariffs. A sizable portion of the gain likely came from rising prices of imported goods under the impact of tariffs, he said. Nguyen also noted he can’t dismiss the possibility that consumers once again pulled forward their spending ahead of the August tariff deadline, taking advantage of Amazon Prime Day sales as well as competing sales from the likes of Walmart and Target. In fact, Nguyen noted the sharp rise in furniture sales, for example, appeared to indicate shoppers were trying to get ahead of the duties. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with American households that would suggest a spending recession given that shoppers are in a strong enough financial position to accelerate purchases, he wrote. “With so much noise in the data, the rest of the year promises to be a wild and bumpy ride. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that U.S. hiring is slowing sharply as Trumps trade policies paralyze businesses and raise concerns about the outlook for the worlds largest economy. U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported, well short of the 115,000 expected. Another government report, issued Tuesday, on U.S. inflation showed that inflation was unchanged in July as rising prices for some imported goods were offset by declining gas and grocery prices, leaving overall prices modestly higher than a year ago. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July from a year earlier, the same as the previous month and up from a post-pandemic low of 2.3% in April. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2% in July, down from 0.3% the previous month, while core prices ticked up 0.3%, a bit faster than the 0.2% in June. The new numbers suggest that slowing rent increases and cheaper gas are offsetting some impacts of Trumps sweeping tariffs. Many businesses are also likely still absorbing much of the cost of the duties. The consumer price figures likely reflect some impact from the 10% universal tariff Trump imposed in April, as well as higher duties on countries such as China and Canada. But that may change. U.S. wholesale inflation soared unexpectedly last month, signaling that Trumps taxes are pushing costs up and that higher prices for consumers may be on the way. The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index which measures inflation before it hits consumers rose 0.9% last month from June, biggest jump in more than three years. The report comes as major retailers like Walmart and Target are slated to report their fiscal second-quarter earnings reports starting next week. Analysts will study the reports to get insight into the state of consumer behavior. But they will also monitor how much stores are passing on the tariffs costs to shoppers. In May, Walmart, the nations largest retailer, warned t hat it had increased prices on bananas imported from Costa Rica from 50 cents per pound to 54 cents, but it noted that a large sting for shoppers wouldn’t start to appear until June and July. But a growing list of companies including Procter & Gamble, e.lf. Cosmetics, Black & Decker and Ralph Lauren told investors in recent weeks that they plan to or have already raised prices. Some are trying to be selective and focusing on raising prices on just their premium products as a way to offset the higher costs from tariffs. Warby Parker, which has been shifting their sourcing away from China, told analysts last Thursday that it plans to keep its $95 option. But its increasing prices on select lens types. It also wants to cater more to older shoppers who need more expensive progressive lens. Warby Parker said that progressives, trifocals and bifocals make up roughly 40% of all prescription units sold industrywide. But just 23% of Warby Parkers business now is made up of progressives, its highest priced offering and offer the highest profit margins. We were able to quickly roll out select strategic price increases that have benefited our growth, Neil Blumenthal, co-chairman and co-founder and co-CEO of Warby Parker, told analysts last week. Anne D’Innocenzio, AP retail writer
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E-Commerce
China’s economy showed signs of slowing in July as factory output and retail sales slowed and housing prices dropped further, according to data released Friday.Uncertainty over tariffs on exports to the United States is still looming over the world’s second-largest economy after President Donald Trump extended a pause in sharp hikes in import duties for 90 days, beginning Monday, following a 90-day pause that began in May.As officials worked toward a broader trade agreement, China reported earlier that its exports surged 7.2% in July year-on-year, while its imports grew at the fastest pace in a year, as businesses rushed to take advantage of the truce in Trump’s trade war with Beijing.But that also reflected a lower base for comparison, and manufacturers have slowed investments, hiring and production as they watch to see what comes. Chinese manufacturers also have ramped up shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa and other regions to help offset lost business in the U.S.“Exports remained a bright spot although the boost from front-loading appears to be tapering off and has started to show up in weak industrial production, as we anticipated,” Oxford Economics’ Sheana Yue wrote in a report.China also has been enduring flooding from torrential seasonal rains that have disrupted business activity in many parts of the country.The statistics bureau’s report said the economy had shown “notable resilience and vitality against the complex and volatile external environment and adverse impacts from extreme domestic weather.”Annual growth in industrial output slowed to 5.7% in July from 6.8% in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That was an 8-month low.Investments in factory equipment and other fixed assets rose a meager 1.6% in January-July, compared with 2.8% growth in the first half of the year.“Chinese economic activity slowed across the board in July, with retail sales, fixed asset investment, and value added of industry growth all reaching the lowest levels of the year,” Lynne Song of ING Economics said in a report.Property investments plunged 12% in the first seven months of the year, with residential housing investment dropping nearly 11%.Prices for newly built housing in major cities fell 1.1%, as a prolonged downturn in the property industry lingered.Yue of Oxford Economics said prices could continue to fall before stabilizing in 2028.The meltdown in the housing market hit just as the COVID -19 pandemic began, sapping one of the economy’s main drivers of growth and causing dozens of developers to default on their debts.The crisis rippled throughout the economy, destroying jobs for millions of people.The government has sought to ensure that most housing that was paid for gets built, but sales remain weak despite a series of moves meant to entice families into back into the market.Since most Chinese families have their wealth tied up in property, the anemic housing market has been a major factor crimping consumer spending. In July, retail sales rose 3.7%, the slowest rate in seven months and down from a 4.8% increase in June.The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5% as university graduates began looking for work.While consumer prices rose 0.4% in July from the month before, prices at the wholesale level slipped 3.6% from a year earlier in another indicator of relatively weak demand. Shihuan Chen in Beijing contributed to this report. Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
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E-Commerce
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