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In Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California, trees that have persisted through rain and shine for thousands of years are now facing multiple threats triggered by a changing climate. Scientists and park managers once thought giant sequoia forests were nearly impervious to stressors like wildfire, drought and pests. Yet, even very large trees are proving vulnerable, particularly when those stressors are amplified by rising temperatures and increasing weather extremes. The rapid pace of climate changecombined with threats like the spread of invasive species and diseasescan affect ecosystems in ways that defy expectations based on past experiences. As a result, Western forests are transitioning to grasslands or shrublands after unprecedented wildfires. Woody plants are expanding into coastal wetlands. Coral reefs are being lost entirely. To protect these places, which are valued for their natural beauty and the benefits they provide for recreation, clean water and wildlife, forest and land managers increasingly must anticipate risks they have never seen before. And they must prepare for what those risks will mean for stewardship as ecosystems rapidly transform. As ecologists and a climate scientist, were helping them figure out how to do that. Managing changing ecosystems Traditional management approaches focus on maintaining or restoring how ecosystems looked and functioned historically. However, that doesnt always work when ecosystems are subjected to new and rapidly shifting conditions. Ecosystems have many moving partsplants, animals, fungi, and microbes; and the soil, air and water in which they livethat interact with one another in complex ways. When the climate changes, its like shifting the ground on which everything rests. The results can undermine the integrity of the system, leading to ecological changes that are hard to predict. To plan for an uncertain future, natural resource managers need to consider many different ways changes in climate and ecosystems could affect their landscapes. Essentially, what scenarios are possible? Preparing for multiple possibilities At Sequoia and Kings Canyon, park managers were aware that climate change posed some big risks to the iconic trees under their care. More than a decade ago, they undertook a major effort to explore different scenarios that could play out in the future. Its a good thing they did, because some of the more extreme possibilities they imagined happened sooner than expected. In 2014, drought in California caused the giant sequoias foliage to die back, something never documented before. In 2017, sequoia trees began dying from insect damage. And, in 2020 and 2021, fires burned through sequoia groves, killing thousands of ancient trees. While these extreme events came as a surprise to many people, thinking through the possibilities ahead of time meant the park managers had already begun to take steps that proved beneficial. One example was prioritizing prescribed burns to remove undergrowth that could fuel hotter, more destructive fires. The key to effective planning is a thoughtful consideration of a suite of strategies that are likely to succeed in the face of many different changes in climates and ecosystems. That involves thinking through wide-ranging potential outcomes to see how different strategies might fare under each scenarioincluding preparing for catastrophic possibilities, even those considered unlikely. For example, prescribed burning may reduce risks from both catastrophic wildfire and drought by reducing the density of plant growth, whereas suppressing all fires could increase those risks in the long run. Strategies undertaken today have consequences for decades to come. Managers need to have confidence that they are making good investments when they put limited resources toward actions like forest thinning, invasive species control, buying seeds or replanting trees. Scenarios can help inform those investment choices. Constructing credible scenarios of ecological change to inform this type of planning requires considering the most important unknowns. Scenarios look not only at how the climate could change, but also how complex ecosystems could react and what surprises might lay beyond the horizon. Scientists at the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center are collaborating with managers in the Nebraska Sandhills to develop scenarios of future ecological change unde different climate conditions, disturbance events like fires and extreme droughts, and land uses like grazing. [Photos: T. Walz, M. Lavin, C. Helzer, O. Richmond, NPS (top to bottom)., CC BY] Key ingredients for crafting ecological scenarios To provide some guidance to people tasked with managing these landscapes, we brought together a group of experts in ecology, climate science, and natural resource management from across universities and government agencies. We identified three key ingredients for constructing credible ecological scenarios: 1. Embracing ecological uncertainty: Instead of banking on one most likely outcome for ecosystems in a changing climate, managers can better prepare by mapping out multiple possibilities. In Nebraskas Sandhills, we are exploring how this mostly intact native prairie could transform, with outcomes as divergent as woodlands and open dunes. 2. Thinking in trajectories: Its helpful to consider not just the outcomes, but also the potential pathways for getting there. Will ecological changes unfold gradually or all at once? By envisioning different pathways through which ecosystems might respond to climate change and other stressors, natural resource managers can identify critical moments where specific actions, such as removing tree seedlings encroaching into grasslands, can steer ecosystems toward a more desirable future. 3. Preparing for surprises: Planning for rare disasters or sudden species collapses helps managers respond nimbly when the unexpected strikes, such as a severe drought leading to widespread erosion. Being prepared for abrupt changes and having contingency plans can mean the difference between quickly helping an ecosystem recover and losing it entirely. Over the past decade, access to climate model projections through easy-to-use websites has revolutionized resource managers ability to explore different scenarios of how the local climate might change. What managers are missing today is similar access to ecological model projections and tools that can help them anticipate possible changes in ecosystems. To bridge this gap, we believe the scientific community should prioritize developing ecological projections and decision-support tools that can empower managers to plan for ecological uncertainty with greater confidence and foresight. Ecological scenarios dont eliminate uncertainty, but they can help to navigate it more effectively by identifying strategic actions to manage forests and other ecosystems. Kyra Clark-Wolf is a research scientist in ecological transformation at the University of Colorado Boulder. Brian W. Miller is a research ecologist at the U.S. Geological Survey. Imtiaz Rangwala is a research scientist in climate at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. 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The lab as we know it today is being transformed by how we think about medical research and drug discovery, as well as the intersection of artificial intelligence and biotechnology. As someone who has transitioned from a doctor to a tech CEO, Ive witnessed firsthand how our mindset around medicine and innovation needs to evolve to keep pace with the accelerating changes in technology. In my journey, one of the most important lessons Ive learned is: You can be too smart for your own good. It may sound counterintuitive, but when building a company or investing in new technologies, the smartest people often fall into the trap of overcomplicating things. A brilliant idea isnt always enough. You need the right people who can think creatively, take risks, and make it happen in the real world. For me, the mindset shift from doctor to CEO was about understanding that its not just about medical knowledge; its about building the right ecosystem to nurture that knowledge and turn it into real and transformative change. I believe that a crucial part of that ecosystem for my company, Owkin, is a new form of intelligence: a biological artificial superintelligence (BASI) to complement the ingenious human minds working with us. Next generation AI tools, like K Navigator, Owkins agentic co-pilot for researchers, and K Pro for pharma, which is in the pipeline, will allow us to understand the full complexity of biology that has been beyond human understanding so far. This forms the backbone of Owkins mission: We are creating the next-generation pharma focused on discovering cures and significantly enhancing pipeline value by developing a new intelligence system capable of decoding biological truths at scale. AI can fill the innovation gap left by pharma As the pharmaceutical industry increasingly focuses on a handful of blockbuster drugs, its leaving behind many areas of medicine that are crucial for the future of healthcare. Too many diseases remain uncured as traditional pharma struggles to navigate the complexity of biology to augment care with efficient new molecules and diagnostics. From rare diseases to precision oncology, theres an innovation gap that AI is perfectly positioned to fill. AI can identify previously overlooked opportunities and streamline the development of treatments that are highly personalized and targeted. Unlike traditional pharmaceutical companies that are heavily reliant on large-scale, high-risk projects, AI companies can operate in a more agile, data-driven way. We can make smaller, more informed bets, leveraging machine learning and vast datasets to uncover insights that were once out of reach. This shift enables faster and more efficient drug discovery, with the added benefit of offering solutions for diseases that may not have attracted the attention of big pharma. Cell lines alone aren’t going to work Most traditional biological research has been based on cell linescells removed from the human body and grown in petri dishes. But as we look to the future, theres a growing realization that cell lines, and other traditional research methods, are becoming outdated. While once a staple in biomedical research, they do not accurately replicate the complexity of human biology, and they fail to capture the diversity and variability that exists in real patients. AI-driven models are capable of moving beyond the limitations of cell lines by integrating data both from research done in cells and tissues removed from the body (in vitro) and from research done in living animals (in vivo). This validation approach, which incorporates multiple data types and sources, allows us to create more reliable and predictive models of human diseases. Science is advancing, and so is regulation. The FDAs recent announcement of plans to phase out animal testing in favor of more effective, human-relevant methods means that we are entering an era where therapies can be tested on human tissue models from the very start. In collaboration with leading academic centers, Owkin has developed a patient-derived, lab-grown organoid (a mini version of a human organ), a breakthrough that brings us closer to faster, more accurate, and humane drug discovery. The combination of clinical data, genomic insights, and AI not only accelerates the development of new treatments but also increases their chances of success in clinical trials. The lab of the future The lab of the future will be one where AI is at the center, guiding discovery, improving precision, and increasing efficiency. Validation using real-world data will allow us to make better decisions and achieve higher rates of success. The traditional research process is being upended by these new technologies, and thats a good thing. The future of medicine will not just rely on human expertise, but on the power of AI and data to transform how we understand and treat disease. AI will deliver transformative therapies at an exponential scale, addressing the complexities of biology that traditional pharmaceutical approaches often cannot solve. Labs will become automated and serve as the ultimate playground for scientists, driving the future of drug discovery by harnessing the full potential of advanced AI systems. In these dynamic labs, organoids and agents will come together to work in synergy, allowing scientists to model and simulate human biology with greater accuracy. AI-driven technology will decipher biological patterns to identify the patients most likely to respond to specific treatments, significantly improving the chances of success in clinical trials and beyond. Seamlessly integrating these cutting-edge tools into the lab environment will transform the way we approach drug discovery, targeting diseases with a level of precision that was previously unimaginable. By pioneering the use of data, biology, and AI to decode the fundamental mechanics of disease and advance medical science, it will be possible to establish a foundation for the future of a “positive singularity” in medicine. Through this innovative ecosystem, AI can revolutionize medicine. The time to innovate is now, and the possibilities are endless. Thomas Clozel is cofounder and CEO of Owkin.
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Lets get this out of the way: We constantly live in uncertain times. Periods of tranquility are actually an aberration, if not an illusion. The relationship between marketing budgets and economic volatility has always been complex. What were witnessing isn’t just the usual ebb and flow of consumer confidence or standard market corrections. Its an unprecedented convergence of tariff confusion, inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and debt refinancing challenges. As I talk to CMOs and marketing leaders across industries, one word keeps surfacing: paralysis. Decision makers find themselves frozen, unsure whether to commit to long-term advertising contracts, unable to accurately forecast costs, and struggling to craft messaging that resonates in a consumer landscape where spending power is increasingly unpredictable. The historical perspective: Who thrives in downturns? When I look back at previous economic contractionsparticularly 2008 and 2020a clear pattern emerges that separates survivors from thrivers. In 2008, as financial markets collapsed, brands like Amazon, Netflix, and Hyundai didn’t retreat. They advanced. Netflix invested heavily in its streaming service during the financial crisis, laying the groundwork for its eventual dominance. Hyundai introduced its ground-breaking Assurance Program, allowing customers to return newly purchased vehicles if they lost their jobsa true masterstroke that increased Hyundai’s market share while competitors were seeing double-digit sales declines. The 2020 pandemic presented similar divergent paths. While many brands slashed marketing budgets in panic, companies like Zoom and DoorDash significantly increased their marketing investments, recognizing the unique moment to capture market share when consumers were rapidly forming new habits. The common thread? These companies didnt view marketing as a discretionary expense to be cut during uncertainty. They saw it as a strategic lever, one that should be pulled harder during hard times. 4 strategic approaches for the uncertainty-conscious marketer Here’s what the most forward-thinking marketers are doing now to navigate the choppy waters ahead: They’re embracing flexibility in all media contracts. The days of rigid, long-term commitments are giving way to more agile arrangements that allow for budget reallocation as economic conditions shift. This means negotiating pause clauses, shorter commitment windows, and performance-based terms that protect all contracted parties. Budgets are shifting toward measurable, adaptable channels. While social media and traditional media face the deepest anticipated cuts (41% and 43% respectively), digital advertising continues to gain market share despite economic concerns. Digital is projected to encompass up to 79% of total ad spend by 2030, up from its current 67%. Message content is being entirely rethought. In the face of economic anxiety, brands need messaging that acknowledges reality while providing genuine value. We’re seeing this play out in automotive advertising, where some manufacturers are emphasizing their American manufacturing credentials. Fords From America, For America campaign represents a strategic positioning that resonates in an era of tariff concerns. As Hyundai, in 2008, these advertisers are using the moment to emphasize their particular brands appeal. AI is being leveraged not just for cost cutting but for scenario planning. The most sophisticated marketing teams are using AI to model multiple economic outcomes and prepare messaging, budget allocations, and channel strategies for each scenario. The creative reset: How agencies have already adapted Its worth noting that the industry isnt starting from scratch in facing these challenges. Client behavior on creative development has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past several years. The best independent agencies have already restructured their operations in response. Gone are the days of lengthy creative development cycles and rigid campaign frameworks. Anticipating these changes years ago, independent shops have largely embraced agile methodologies that align perfectly with today’s economic realities. In many ways, the independent agency sector has already prepared for exactly this kind of destabilizing environment. Theyve built their businesses around speed and adaptability rather than scale and standardization. As such, theyre uniquely positioned to help steer brands through bumps ahead without sacrificing creative impact or market presence. Brand versus performance in uncertain times Perhaps the most critical strategic question facing marketers is how to balance brand building against performance marketing when budgets contract. Historical data consistently shows that brands maintaining or increasing their share of voice during downturns emerge in stronger positions when markets recover. Yet short-term revenue pressures make performance marketing irresistibly tempting when every dollar must be justified. The smart play here isnt choosing one over the other but reimagining how all of these factors work together. Performance marketing can be designed to build brand equity simultaneously. Brand marketing can incorporate more direct response elements. The artificial wall between these disciplines must come down to survive economic headwinds. Opportunity within adversity The brands that will emerge strongest from this period of uncertainty won’t be those with the largest budgets, but those with the clearest strategic vision, the most agile execution, and the courage to maintain presence when competitors retreat. Economic uncertainty doesnt change the fundamental truth that share of voice leads to share of market. It simply raises the stakes and rewards those who can maintain their voice when others fall silent. Looking at the latter half of 2025, the marketing leaders who view this period not as a time to hide but as a rare opportunity to stand out will be the ones writing the success stories we’ll be studying for years to come. Tim Ringel is global CEO of Meet The People.
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