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A new consensus is growing within the scientific community about climate change: The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, as set out in the Paris Agreement, is probably out of reach. Weve already experienced the first full calendar year beyond this threshold, with last years global average temperature being 1.6 C higher than that of the preindustrial era. And while a single year at this level isnt enough to confirm without a doubt that the Paris goal is a goner, several recent scientific papers have come to the same unsettling conclusion that a new era of warming has already begun. How hot will things get within our lifetimes? The answer will be determined largely by how quickly we can wean ourselves off fossil fuels, and with greenhouse gas emissions still risingand to new highsthis remains uncertain. But researchers can make an educated guess. Right now they say were on track for about 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. That means that on average, the world will be about 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in 2100 than it was at the turn of the 20th century, or about 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it is today. That may not sound like much, but a 5-degree rise will affect almost every aspect of human life, in ways both large and small. What will life be like in this much warmer world? Answering this question with any certainty is difficult, because so much depends on how the earths many complex and interconnected systems respond. But climate scientists agree a warmer future is a more dangerous one. I like to think of good analogies, says Luke Jackson, an assistant professor of physical geography at Durham University in the U.K. So, if you imagine that scoring a goal represents an extreme event, then the larger the goal, the more likely you are to score. Were widening the goal posts. But if we want to try to get more specific, there are projections that are backed by science. These are some of the changes that are most likely, and their potential trickle-down effects. Endless summer In the Northern Hemisphere, summer will take up a larger chunk of the year by 2100, extending from about 95 days to 140 days. Summer-like temperatures will appear much earlier, cutting springtime short, and linger well into the fall. Winter will become warmer, too, though there’s some debate over whether extreme winter storms will actually become more common as the climate changes. In many places, the warmer seasons will be unbearable, with oppressive heat waves that last for weeks on end. Thanks to the urban heat island effect, cities will be especially hot. San Antonio, for example, could see six heat waves per year, with temperatures lingering around 95 degrees, sometimes for up to a month at a time. Farther north, New York City will get eight heat waves per year, some lasting as long as two weeks. For context, in the early 2000s New York averaged less than one heat wave annually. Air-conditioning will be a literal life-saver, and the number of people with air-conditioning will increase dramatically. (Paradoxically, all these new air conditioners are likely to contribute even more greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.) Still, heat-related deaths will continue to rise to 20,000 annually in the U.S., and thats a conservative estimate. At 5 degrees Fahrenheit of warming, the share of the worlds population living in areas outside the human climate niche (the temperature range at which human life can thrive) would grow from 9% to 40%. Low- and middle-income countries would be disproportionately affected. In India, the most populated country in the world, some 600 million people will feel unprecedented heat outside this niche. Other hard-hit countries will include Nigeria, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Sudan, and Niger. The Arctic is predicted to be practically ice-free during summertime. This will accelerate warming even more, and also threaten the homes, livelihoods, and cultures of millions of people in Arctic regions, to say nothing of the wildlife and ecosystems. Fires and Disease By 2100, the number of extreme fires could increase 50% globally. The boreal forests of Canada, Alaska, and Russia will be especially vulnerable. Events like the 2023 Canadian wildfires, which burned more than 37 million acres and sent plumes of smoke billowing across the U.S., will become more common. At the same time, well likely get better at forecasting and tracking wildfires, and, out of pure necessity, more cities will have clean air shelters with filtration systems where people can be protected from wildfire smoke. There will likely be a rise in mosquito-borne illnesses like dengue, Zika, West Nile, and yellow fever, as more warmth will mean more days during which viruses can spread. The peak transmission period for West Nile currently lasts about three months per year in Miami, but would likely increase to about five months. Across much of the Global South, temperatures will become too hot for malaria to spread, but conditions for this disease would become more favorable in other parts of the world, including Europe, North America, and Central Asia. According o the World Resources Institute, As occasional reports arise of locally acquired malaria in Europe and the U.S., there is increasing concern that malaria could creep into places that havent seen it in living memory. Sinking cities In a scenario of 5 degrees Fahrenheit of warming, the ice sheets and glaciers will continue to melt, and the sea water will warm and expand. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in this scenario sea levels could rise about 2 feet on average across the globe by 2100. This will put at risk decades of human development progress in densely populated coastal zones which are home to one in seven people in the world, says Pedro Conceiço, director of the United Nations Development Programmes Human Development Report Office. The effect will be more extreme in areas that already have higher-than-average sea levels, such as the U.S. East Coast, Japan, and the west coast of South America. New York City, for example, could see water levels rise more than 3 feet by the end of the century. High-tide flooding will become a regular nuisance in many places, with water seeping into city streets and shop fronts every day for a few hours before receding, making it increasingly difficult to live or do business near the waterfront. Flooding from extreme storms like hurricanes will also become more frequent. Roughly speaking, the vast majority of global coastlines are going to experience a present-day 100-year event every year, Jackson says. Today’s extreme event becomes tomorrow’s normal event. For many low-lying island nations, the challenge of higher seas and more intense tropical storms will be existential. The U.N. projects that the Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Netherlands, Saint Martin, Seychelles, Turks and Caicos, and Tuvalu will see at least 5% of their territories permanently inundated by the end of the century. Most of the populations of these regions live within a few miles of the shoreline, putting them in grave danger. At the same time that sea levels are rising, coastal megacities that sit on river deltaslike New Orleans, Houston, and Shanghaiwill sink as more water is pumped out of the ground for things like drinking and irrigation, causing the sediment to compact. This is a massive concern for our global megacities, Jackson asserts. There’s a real sting in the tail with that one, because these are places which are some of the most densely populated locations on Earth. In many locations, there are inadequate coastal protections to deal with it, and the length of time it would take to build coastal defenses in order to accommodate for this problem is, frankly, not achievable. Indonesia is already experiencing this, and has planned to relocate its capital city of Jakarta entirely rather than try to keep the water at bay. Other populations may eventually follow. After all, retreat is a form of adaptation, Jackson says. Sea levels will continue to rise for centuries, according to the IPCC, and will remain elevated for thousands of years. Food shortages Flooding, heat stress, and changing weather patterns will make it harder to grow crops and raise livestock. One estimate suggests up to 30% of the worlds food production could be at risk by 2100 if temperatures rise by 6.6 degrees Fahrenheit. At 5 degrees, the percentage may be slightly lower, but still devastating for millions of people. According to the World Bank, about 80% of the global population most at risk from crop failures and hunger from climate change are in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. The threat of malnutrition will stalk these populations. In other regions, like the U.S. and Europe, problems with food will be annoying at first and grow over time, says Kai Kornhuber, a research scientist studying future climate risks at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and an adjunct assistant professor at the Columbia Climate School. It starts with these small nuisances, like your favorite vegetable is not available anymore for a week or so because there was a huge flood or a heat wave or wildfire in Spain, for instance, he says. These things are already happening, right? Gradually, lower yields for staple crops like corn, rice, and wheat could become the norm. One analysis projects that as early as 2030, Iowa could see corn production plummet 25% due to climate change, Minnesotas soybean yield could drop as much as 19%, and wheat production in Kansas could fall 9%. Without adaptation, those numbers will continue to rise through 2100, threatening farmers livelihoods, as well as food supply chains and nutrition in the U.S. Its not only crops and livestock that are affected, says Gerald Nelson, professor emeritus at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaigns College of Agriculture, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences. The agricultural workers who plant, till, and harvest much of the food we need will also suffer due to heat exposure, reducing their ability to undertake work in the field. Soil degradation, biodiversity loss, and the collapse of ecosystems due to climate change will leave plants more vulnerable to disease and further exacerbate the risk of crop failure. Food prices around the world will rise. In fact, this is already happening: In 2023, extreme weather was the main driver of food price volatility. Researchers say that between now and 2035, global food prices could rise by up to 3% every year because of climate change. Mass migration and increased conflict Its difficult to know what human migration patterns will look like in the years to come, but many people will have little choice but to move out of rural areas or across borders to find work, food, and a viable human habitat. These mass migrations are likely to trigger conflict and confusion. Attempts to enter the U.S. through the southern border will rise as populations in the dry corridor in Central America face food insecurity. Even the idea of where a countrys borders lie could be thrown into question. The borders of your country are defined, at least along their coasts, by the position of high tide, Jackson explains. If your coastline moves inland [due to sea level rise] your economic zone is going to move too. This is all very bleak, I know. And its only scratching the surface. But the enduring good news is that we can still change the future. Indeed, we already have. Just 10 years ago, scientists were forecasting a global temperature rise of 3.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the centuryor 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Since then, new government policies, and the meteoric rise of renewable energy, seem to have made a dent. Still, there is much more to be done. The world will not end like a computer game by the end of the century, Kornhuber says. It’s going to continue afterwards, and temperatures and extreme weather will continue to get worse until we’ve managed to phase out fossil fuels.
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency faces a legal challenge after approving a controversial plan to include radioactive waste in a road project late last year. The Center for Biological Diversity filed the challenge last month in the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals under the Clean Air Act. The advocacy group says the federal agency has prohibited the use of phosphogypsum, a radioactive, carcinogenic, and toxic waste generated by the fertilizer industry, in road construction since 1992, citing an unacceptable level of risk to public health. The legal challenge is centered on a road project proposed at the New Wales facility of Mosaic Fertilizer, a subsidiary of the Mosaic Co., some 40 miles east of Tampa. The EPA approved the project in December 2024, noting the authorization applied only to the single project and included conditions meant to ensure the project would remain within the scope of the application. But Ragan Whitlock, Florida staff attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, feared the project could lead to more roadways built with the toxic waste. Part of what makes this process so alarming, its not just a one-off science experiment, he said. Its being billed as the intermediate step between laboratory testing and full-scale implementation of the idea. So our concern is that whatever methodology is used for this project will be used for national approval down the road. Phosphogypsum contains radium, which as it decays forms radon gas. Both radium and radon are radioactive and can cause cancer. Normally, phosphogypsum is disposed of in engineered piles called stacks to limit public exposure to emissions of radon. The stacks can be expanded as they reach capacity or closed, which involves draining and capping. More than 1 billion tons of the waste is stored in stacks in Florida, with the fertilizer industry adding some 40 million tons every year, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. Mosaic aims to construct a test road near its Florida stack with four sections, each made with varying mixtures of phosphogypsum. The waste would be used in the road base, which would be paved over with asphalt. University of Florida researchers would be involved in the study. Most of the comments the EPA received in response to the proposal opposed the use of phosphogypsum in road construction in general and criticized the current methods for managing the waste, but the federal agency said these comments were outside the scope of its review. The agency declined to comment on pending litigation. The review found that Mosaics risk assessment is technically acceptable, and that the potential radiological risks from the proposed project meet the regulatory requirements, the EPA stated in the Federal Register dated December 23, 2024. The project is at least as protective of public health as maintaining the phosphogypsum in a stack. Mosaic has faced scrutiny in the past after a pond at its Piney Point site leaked and threatened to collapse in 2021, forcing the release of 215 million gallons of contaminated water into Tampa Bay. Mosaic did not respond to a request for comment on the new litigation. By Amy Green, Inside Climate News This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News. It is republished with permission. Sign up for its newsletter here.
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Were exposed to microplastics in myriad ways: Those tiny, degraded bits of plastic are in our soil, our water, even in our air. They then get into our bodies, lodging themselves in our organsincluding our brains. An adult human brain can contain about a spoons worth of microplastics and nanoplastics, recent research foundnot a spoonful, but the same weight as a disposable plastic spoon. That amount was higherby seven to 30 timesthan the amount of microplastics found in other organs, such as livers or kidneys. The concentrations were even higher (by three to five times) in individuals diagnosed with dementia. And even more concerning, experts say, is how these levels have increased over time: Between 2016 and 2024, the concentration of microplastics in human brains increased by about 50%. Those findings came from a study by University of New Mexico researchers that was recently published in the journal Nature Medicine. A new commentary, published today in the journal Brain Medicine, builds on that research by looking at a few big questions that arise when we learn we have lots of microplastics in our brains: How can we limit our exposure, and is there any way to remove these microplastics? How to reduce microplastics exposure The microplastics found in human brains included nanoplasticsparticles smaller than 200 nanometers (a human hair, for contrast, is about 80,000 nanometers wide). They were also mostly made up of polyethylene, a commonly produced plastic used in everything from food packaging to drink bottles to plastic bags. That helps give an idea of what sorts of exposure could lead to these particles ending up in the brain, says Nicholas Fabiano from the University of Ottawa’s psychiatry department, and lead author of the commentary; Fabianos research focuses on the overlap between mental and physical health. Bottled water is a particular source of these kinds of microplastics. Switching from that to filtered tap water could reduce your intake of microplastics from 90,000 particles per year to 4,000. (Though its not clear, the commentary authors note, if that would translate to a measurable drop in the amount of microplastics accumulated in our body tissues.) Plastic tea bags have also been found to release millions of microplastic particles when brewed, so avoiding those could also limit exposure. There are also microplastics in ultra-processed foods like chicken nuggets. Storing and heating food in plastic containers can release lots of micro- and nanoplastics. Switching to glass or stainless steel might be safer, Fabiano says. Canned soup could also be a source of exposure, as cans are often lined with plastic. The authors also noted a 2011 study that found that after five days of eating canned soup, participants saw the levels of BPA (a chemical used to make plastic) in their urine increase more than 1,000%. (There has since been a decline in cans with BPA in the lining, but some new linings instead contain polystyrene.) Because microplastics are even in our airmore than 60,000 such particles are inhaled by male adults per year, previous research has foundthe authors also recommend using HEPA air filters. Can we remove microplastics that are already in our brain? The original study on microplastics in human brains had an interesting finding: There was no correlation between someones age and their microplastic levels. “That suggests peoples bodies are able to get rid of these microplastics in various different ways, Fabiano says. (If there were a correlation, there would be a cumulative effect: The older someone is, the more microplastics in their brain.) How exactly that happens, though, we still dont know. Is it through sweat? Is it through feces? Is it through urine? Fabiano says. Prior research has found BPA in peoples sweat, suggesting that induced sweating could potentially remove those particles, but more research needs to be done, he says. The commentary is a call for more research. For all the research identifying microplastics in the environment or in our bodies, theres little on the health impacts of this debris. And what exists on that front focuses mostly on physical health. If you have a spoons worth of plastic in your brain, surely there must be impact to your mental health, Fabiano notes. The original Nature Medicine article was a step in the right direction, he adds, for even looking at dementia patients and shedding light on the possible connection for diagnoses and microplastics. But it also raises more questions that researchers need to answernot just on the impacts, but also if scientists should establish microplastics-exposure limits, and how else we could reduce or remove the microplastics already inside us. Right now, the microplastic-and-health research is still in its early days, Fabiano says. But so far, what the research has shown is that it’s certainly not a good thing to have microplastics. The best thing for people to do in the meantime, he says, is to try to limit their exposure.
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