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President Donald Trump has strong-armed many of Americas biggest trading partners into pledging trillions of dollars of investment in the United States. But a study out Tuesday raises doubts about whether the money will actually materialize and questions how it would be spent if it did. How realistic are these commitments? write Gregory Auclair and Adnan Mazarei of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a nonpartisan think tank that supports free trade. The short answer is that they are clouded with uncertainty. They looked at more than $5 trillion in investment commitments made last year by the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and the Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Trump used the threat of punitive tariffsimport taxesto pry concessions out of those trading partners, including the investment pledges. The White House has published an even higher investment figure – $9.6 trillionthat includes public and private investment commitments from other countries. Trump himself, never one to undersell his achievements, has put the number far higher$17 trillion or $18 trillionthough Auclair and Mazarei note that the basis for his claim is not clear. All the numbers are huge. Total private investment in the United States was most recently running at a $5.4 trillion annual pace. In 2024, the last year for which figures are available, total foreign direct investment in the United States amounted to $151 billion. Direct investment includes money sunk into such things as factories and offices but not financial investments like stocks and bonds. The pledged amounts are large, Auclair and Mazarei write, but their time horizon varies, and the metrics for measuring and thus verifying the pledges are generally unclear. They note, for example, that the European Unions pledge to invest $600 billion in the United States carries no legally binding commitment. The report also finds that some countries would strain to meet their pledges. For the Gulf countries, the commitments are large relative to their financial resources, the researchers write. Saudi Arabia appears capable of meeting its targets, with some difficulty. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar would find it even harder and might have to finance the investments by borrowing. In all three cases, the commitments are nonbinding, and investments from these countries could fall well below headline numbers, they write. Moreover, these agreements have been reached under duress, Mazarei, a former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund, said in an interview. Its not necessarily being done willingly. So trading partners could look for ways to escape their commitmentsespecially if the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs Trump used to negotiate the one-sided agreements. A ruling is expected as early as February. Other countries may find a way to wiggle out, Mazarei said. Still, the Trump administration can turn to alternative tariffs if the justices rule the current tariffs illegal. President Trump agreed to lower tariffs on countries we have trade deals with in exchange for investment commitments and other concessions,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said. The president reserves the right to revisit tariff rates if other countries renege on their commitments, and anyone who doubts President Trumps willingness to put his money where his mouth is should ask Nicolas Maduro and Iran for their thoughts. U.S. troops overthrew and arrested Venezuelan President Maduro early this month, and Trump ordered the United States to join Israel in bombing Iran last year. Auclair and Mazarei agree that the investment Trump lands could end up creating jobs, spurring economic growth, and making supply chains more secure by bringing production to America. Trump, they note, is in some ways taking a similar approach to Biden, using government industrial policy” to encourage more manufacturing in the United States. But Biden tapped taxpayer dollars to finance infrastructure projects and incentives for companies to invest in green technology and semiconductors. Trump is using the tariff threat to get foreign countriesand their companiesto pick up the tab. And he has dropped the push to encourage clean energy, focusing instead on promoting fossil fuels. In their report, the Peterson researchers worry about how the investment decisions would get made and whether they would reflect sound economics. This approach may yield real investments and jobs, they write, but it raises familiar industrial policy concerns: opaque projection selection, weak accountability, and the risk that political criteria crowd out economic efficiency. Paul Wiseman, AP economics writer
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The greatest financial danger in retirement isn’t always the stock market. It’s the constant, nagging fear of running out of money. This anxiety causes many people to underspend and worry, even when their finances are sound.Here are eight ways to replace that worry with lasting security. Determine your spending baselineWorry often starts with the vague question, “Am I spending too much?”Instead of operating on gut feeling, work with an advisor to determine your personal sustainable withdrawal rate (often between 3% and 5%). Once you know your lifestyle is covered by a responsible withdrawal rate, you can stop guessing and start living confidently. Make adjustments when neededMany retirees treat their spending plan like an all-or-nothing system. This rigidity creates panic during market downturns.Instead, adopt a dynamic spending strategy. Slightly reduce or delay discretionary spending in poor market years. By reducing your withdrawal rate by just 10% when your portfolio is down, you dramatically reduce the risk of permanent capital depletion, allowing the assets time to recover. Realize your spending will naturally declineThe high level of discretionary spending you need at age 65 will likely not be the same at age 85, especially once you have long-term care coverage (see No. 7).Expenses for travel, hobbies, dining out, and maintaining multiple homes typically decrease as you age. Knowing that your major risk (long-term care) is insured, you can trust that your remaining costs will naturally ease over the next two decades. Your money is working harder when you’re younger and enjoying it most, and your needs will taper off as your capital naturally draws down. Create a recession buffer (the ‘anti-panic’ fund)The greatest tactical threat to longevity is experiencing a large market crash early in retirement and having to sell depressed assets to pay for basics such as groceries. To protect yourself, maintain a six- to 12-month cash cushion outside of the market.This “recession buffer” allows your growth assets (equities) to sit untouched and recover during a market downturn, preventing you from locking in losses. This separation between your living money and your long-term growth money is the most direct way to eliminate panic during volatility. Buy out the risk of surprise taxesFuture, unknown tax rates and large required minimum distributions from traditional retirement accounts are a major source of financial uncertainty.What can you do? Eliminate the tax uncertainty by creating a tax-free bucket.By using targeted Roth conversionsusing up lower tax brackets to recharacterize traditional IRAsyou ensure a significant portion of your savings is shielded from all future tax increases. Having a large tax-free account gives you maximum flexibility to control your taxable income every year, protecting you from future legislation and eliminating the anxiety of surprise tax bills. Anchor your essentials with guaranteed incomeRetirement is worry-free when your core, non-negotiable needs (housing, food, utilities) are covered by income sources shielded from market volatility.Social Security is your primary source of inflation-adjusted, government-backed income. While claiming at full retirement age is a safe minimum, aiming to delay Social Security until age 70 maximizes your lifetime benefit.If a gap exists between your guaranteed income and your essential expenses, you can buy a single premium immediate annuity. This annuity converts a lump sum of savings into an unbreakable income stream throughout your lifetime, closing the gap and securing your basic lifestyle. Buy protection against catastrophic care costsLong-term care is the single largest threat to a lifetime of savings. Getting a quality long-term care insurance policy protects your nest egg from being wiped out by nursing home or in-home care costs. Once that risk is contained, you no longer need to worry about a seven-figure expense appearing unexpectedly. Use home equity as your ultimate backstopHome equity is your parachute, a huge, flexible reserve.In an extreme situationsuch as severe market crashes or unforeseen emergenciesaccessing this capital through a reverse mortgage, a line of credit, or eventually downsizing and selling provides an unparalleled safety net, allowing you to invest your remaining liquid portfolio with more confidence.You are now equipped with multiple strategies to build financial security. Feel better? This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to https://www.morningstar.com/retirement.Sheryl Rowling, CPA, is an editorial director, financial advisor for Morningstar.Related Links 3 Big Changes for Retirement Planning in 2026https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/3-big-changes-retirement-planning-2026 The State of Retirement Income for 2026https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/the-state-of-retirement-income A Hidden Trend Is Changing 401(k) Plans. Here’s What It Means for Investorshttps://www.morningstar.com/funds/hidden-trend-is-changing-401k-plans-heres-what-it-means-investors Sheryl Rowling of Morningstar
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It’s more obvious than ever why recording encounters with federal agents matters: without bystander videos, it would be much harder to disprove the governments Orwellian lies about how Alex Pretti was killed last Saturday. But there are also risks when you pull out your phone to take a video at a protest or if you see an ICE agent abducting, say, a 5-year-old child. Heres what to know about how to protect your technology and yourself. The First Amendment gives you a right to record It’s really important to start with the fact that individuals have a First Amendment right to record police officers and law enforcement, says Maria Villegas Bravo, counsel at the nonprofit Electronic Privacy Information Center. If you’re lawfully allowed to be somewhere, you are legally allowed to record law enforcement in the course of their duty. Some ICE agents seem to have missed that in their training. A recent video from Maine shows an agent telling a legal observer that now she’s considered a “domestic terrorist” for filming him. Then he took a photo of her license plate and told her that she would be added to a database. Federal agents have targeted people taking photos at protests, including a professional photographer who was tackled and pepper-sprayed and tossed his camera to another photographer to save it. Everyone has to judge the risks for themselves, but the more people who record, the harder it is for authorities to erase what actually happened. Minneapolis, January 11, 2026. [Photo: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg/Getty Images] Consider leaving your phone at home Your phone is obviously filled with data about younot just all of your photos and messages and apps, but location data for everywhere you’ve been. Google, for example, “can track you really granularly,” says Villegas Bravo. “Their location tracking can get you within three meters and it can also pinpoint what floor of a building that you’re on.” If you’re arrested and your phone is confiscated, law enforcement needs a warrant before it can legally look at the contents. But after there’s a warrant, forensic extraction technology can make a complete copy of your phone’s contents, Villegas Bravo says. Then agents can search through it, either manually or with AI. If you’re going to a protest, consider leaving your phone at home (leave your smartwatch and other digital devices at home, too). “You can’t have data extracted from a phone that you don’t have on you,” says Bill Budington, a senior staff technologist at the Electronic Frontier Foundation. “Bringing a secondary device, one that can capture footage in high quality, for instance, is a good suggestion.” Consider bringing a burner phone to take video. An old-school digital camera with no internet connection could also be an option. (In theory, you could quickly pop an SD card out of a camera if you think the camera’s about to be taken away.) There are trade-offs with different choices: a camera doesn’t give you the option to upload a video after taking it, and the videos and photos can’t be encrypted like they could be on a phone. Burner phones can also have trade-offs, since you probably won’t have a new model with the best security and updates. “There’s an arms race of forensic extraction devices versus the Apples and device manufacturers in the world that are trying to protect against [extraction],” Budington says, and the newest phones have the most protection. But you should have little data on a burner to steal. To avoid being targeted for filming, some observers are using less obvious technology, like smart glasses or very tiny cameras. One downside: they’re often expensive. The data isn’t always secure; small cameras may have an SD card and lack encryption. Some smart glasses and cameras can stream to a phone in your pocket, so the video will be as secure as the phone is. Make your phone more secure Of course, you might not have the chance to plan in advance if you suddenly need to document something happening in your neighborhood. Or you may decide to take the risk of bringing it to a demonstration. In either case, it’s possible to take steps to make your phone more secure. First, change your settings so that your phone can’t be unlocked with biometrics like your fingerprint or facial recognition. Right now, courts have said that law enforcement can force you to unlock your phone this way. Traditional passcodes have more protection. Keep your phone locked. You can access your camera without unlocking the phone; on an iPhone, for example, just swipe left from the home screen. You can also temporarily change the settings on your phone so it’s only possible to access one app. (On an iPhone, this is called guided access; on Android devices, you can turn on “app pinning” in your settings.) Make sure that your phone is encrypted. On an iPhone, check under the settings for Face ID and password to make sure that it says data protection is enabled. On Android phones, look under security settings for encryption and encrypt your phone. Android phones also have the option to add the Graphene operating system, which is designed to make the devices more secure. To stop your phone from tracking you, turn off location services and keep it in airplane mode. And when you text friends about anything sensitive, it’s better to use an app like Signal with end-to-end encryption. Minneapolis, January 13, 2026. [Photo: Octavio Jones/AFP/Getty Images] Sharing videos When you share videos, consider the privacy of others. Immigration nonprofits don’t recommend livestreaming immigrants’ encounters with ICE. If you upload a video after a protest, the best practice is to blur out the faces of fellow protesters. Law enforcement agencies sometimes use facial recognition on images to arrest protesters after the fact. The ACLU previously offered an app called Mobile Justice that automatically uploaded videos of encounters with law enforcement in real time, but took the app down last year, citing that it wanted to “ensure compliance with a growing number of consumer privacy laws and the ACLUs own privacy policies.” While it’s possible to upload a video to store it in the cloud yourself while you’re at an eventas a backup in case your phone is confiscated or damaged in a scuffleit may be difficult if there’s a crowd and limited bandwidth. The best option may be to make your phone as secure as possible. Despite the challenges, it’s critical to get the footage. “This is a really dangerous time,” says Villegas Bravo. “And I think it’s really important to continue recording law enforcement and creating this chain of evidence to keep the government transparent and accountable.”
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