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According to the companys annual analysis, this years shopping season wont just break recordsitll rewrite the playbook. AI assistants are set to steer how people search, shop, and spend, while buy-now-pay-later plans help stretched consumers keep the holiday magic alive. Each year, Adobe uses data from its Adobe Analytics platform to predict what the shopping landscape and consumer behavior will look like between November 1 and December 31. According to Adobes description, the data includes inputs from many of the top 100 retailers in the U.S., covering over 1 trillion visits to retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories. In 2025, Adobe says that the holiday shopping season will be bigger than everand AI will play a key role in guiding how shoppers fill their carts. Here are three main takeaways from the analysis: Holiday shopping will reach a record high, but its growing sluggishly Holiday shopping is expected to reach a record high this year: Adobe predicts that shoppers will spend a total of $253.4 billion, up 5.3% from last year. Thats a head-turning sum, but its actually a slower rate of growth compared to 2024, when Adobe Analytics predicted that the total would increase by 8.7%. The slowdown comes as inflation persists and consumer spending remains dampened. In a survey conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers and released in early September, shoppers reported that, for the upcoming holiday season, they expected to spend 5.3% less than in 2024 (about $1,552 per person). Its the first notable drop since 2020, when average spending fell 7.6% to $1,187. “You have consumers dealing with a lot in the broader economy,” Vivek Pandya, director at Adobe Digital Insights, told Reuters. “We anticipate them taking advantage of these major sales moments, and we still see them leaning on the online sector as an area to get better deals.” Buy your Christmas gifts now; pay for them later Given that consumers wallets are tighter this year, Adobe predicts that a good chunk of holiday shoppers will turn to buy-now-pay-later (BPNL) services to help spread out the costs. BPNL spend is expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spendroughly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season. These numbers dont come as a surprise, as BPNL usage has become increasingly common over the past several months. An April LendingTree survey found that consumers are increasingly relying on BNPL services for quotidian purchases like groceries and food delivery, while Grand View Research predicted earlier this year that the BNPL market will see a 26.1% annual compound growth rate between 2023 and 2030. AI-assisted shopping is in Over the past several months, brands including Ralph Lauren and Pinterest have invested in their own AI tools to drive online shopping. The AI-powered app Daydream is purpose-built to help users find the perfect outfits. AI features are becomingly increasingly intertwined in the overall shopping process, from how users find gift inspiration to the search engines they query and the sites they shop on. Last year was the first time that Adobe noticed a measurable surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites pre-holidays, but it wont be the last. Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, becoming a helpful assistant for compiling research before making a purchase, the brands report reads. Adobe observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) during the 2024 season, with traffic increasing 1,300% YoY. For the 2025 season, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520% YoY, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, more than one third reported having used an AI-powered service for online shopping, with top use cases including research, product recommendations, and gift inspiration.
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E-Commerce
A quarter of a century after the Acela began whisking passengers between Washington, New York, and Boston, the Acelas slightly faster replacement finally began service at the end of August. But the most obvious upgrade NextGen Acela offers over its predecessor is not speed, but shininess. On the trains second day of revenue service, I boarded a train in Washington, D.C., for a day trip to New York. Standing alongside a previous-gen Acela at Union Station, my train was positively gleaming, and looked just as sharp on the inside. Then came the ride, which took just as long as previous trips and went no faster. NextGen Acela can hit 160 mph on upgraded track, but my train maxed out at 144 mph on a straightaway north of Princeton, N.J., cleared for 160 mph operation. My return trip Friday night on the same tracks, however, topped out at 162 mphthe speed Frances TGV debuted at in 1981. Progress on the Northeast CorridorNEC for shorthas been like that since before Amtrak took over the route from the bankrupt Penn Central Transportation Company in 1971. Taking the busiest passenger railroad in North America out of service for a complete rebuild to meet the standards of high-speed lines in other countries has been impossible, but even incremental upgrades have often been left waiting for lack of funding. And yet the NEC remains the only high-speed line in the U.S.and it may retain that status at the end of the decade. What Amtrak can make happen on these 450-plus miles of track, then, matters. How well it can make these improvements happen, in turn, hinges on how well Amtrak and its regulators can drop a sort of American exceptionalism unjustified by past performance and adopt the best practices of high-speed rail elsewhere in the world. [Photo: Amtrak] Replacing a weary workhorse The first-gen Acela made a quick impression at its belated debut in 2000. Those 20 trainsets had the sleek look of bullet trains overseas and could hit 150 mph on rebuilt track in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, 140 mph elsewhere. The Acela grew to become Amtraks second-most-used route after the slower Northeast Regional trains that run from Boston to Washington and then onward to points in Virginia. In fiscal year 2024, the railroad carried 3.2 million passengers. And it has the highest profit margin of any Amtrak route: 36% in FY 2024, yielding $134 million in adjusted operating earnings. But the first-gen Acela also provides a lesson in procurement failure: Amtrak had it built to Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) crash-resistance standards that essentially demanded that a passenger train bash aside a freight train without crumplingfar stricter than those of other countries with impeccable safety records. That made buying a train already running in Europe or Japan impossible. Instead, Amtrak ordered a custom design from a joint venture between Bombardier and Alstom. The result suffered numerous early breakdowns. The train was so heavy that former Amtrak president Thomas Downs called it a “high-velocity bank vault.” Liberalized crashworthiness rules allowing basic safety engineering like crumple zones allowed Alstom to adapt EU-spec train designs for NextGen, which its building at a factory in Hornell, New York. Each of these 28 trains is longer and carries more passengers386 seats, versus the 304 on first-gen Acelamaking for a meaningful increase in capacity. When Amtrak inked that contract with Alstom in 2016valued at $2.45 billion, including NEC upgradesit predicted that the new trains would enter service in 2021. They took another four years, during which the old trains grew unreliable enough that Amtrak had to park some to cannibalize for repair parts. [Photo: Amtrak] In a 2023 report, Amtraks inspector general cited Alstoms struggles to develop a computer model of NextGens performance, without which the FRA would not approve the start of testing, and defects in trainsets built so far. At the start of 2025, Amtraks site predicted a spring debut, but NextGen Acela needed another few months. Amtrak pointed to the difficulty of meeting FRA testing requirements, which spokeswoman Olivia Irvin says necessitated continual refinement of Alstoms analysis, simulations and testing activities. Sean Jeans-Gail, vice president of government affairs and policy for the Rail Passengers Association, a Washington nonprofit advocating for better passenger-rail service in the U.S., suggested that the FRA hasnt quite dropped a not-invented-here mindset: The FRA is moving towards aligning its specifications with international best practices, but theres still room for improvement. Progress on board — but with some pain The ride I experienced from D.C. to NYC and back made at least some of that wait seem worth it. Beyond the lack of grime, the ride felt smoother, if not smooth enough to match a high-speed train in Europe or Japan. But while the legroom and absence of middle seats remain terrific, the seat cushions could benefit from some softening. The seats also dont recline conventionally; instead, the seat pan and the very lowest part of the seat back slide forward. Amtrak did fix one annoyance with the old trains: The power outlets rest between each pair of seats instead of in the wall, ending the need to reach across a stranger. Theyre accompanied by USB-A ports that Amtrak plans to upgrade to USB-C. The bathrooms, one of the scruffier areas of the Acela, got a high-touch treatment, with powered doors and touchless dispensers for water and soap above the sink. [Photo: Amtrak] The cafe car, however, lacks any seats. And its grab-and-go refrigerated shelves did not spare anybody from waiting in line: The check-out terminal wasnt in operation on my ride to New York. New Acela trains, like the old ones, feature a First Class car, which I used on the ride back by cashing in an upgrade coupon procured with Guest Rewards points. Amtraks partnership with Philadelphia-based Starr Restaurants continues to yield surprisingly tasty catering. As on the older train, the seats have no more recline than those in other cars (which Amtrak sells as business class), but one side of this car has only a single row of seats. Amtrak plans to step up its rollout of NextGen but is now shying away from specifics beyond saying that the new trains will continue to enter service from now through 2027. New bridges, tunnels, and wires to go with new trains The view out NextGens blissfully grime-free windows included one of the first major projects along the corridor nearing completiona $2.2 billion bridge in New Jerseys Meadowlands to replace a 1910-vintage drawbridge that occasionally gets stuck open. Full-scale construction on two other long-overdue NEC projects will soon begin: a $6 billion tunnel through Baltimore to replace a fossil of a tunnel through which trains creep along at 30 mph, and a $14.8 billion project to dig two new tunnels under the Hudson River to augment the pair that the Pennsylvania Railroad opened between New Jersey and New York in 1910. A different set of NEC improvements are easier to miss, because they dont involve giant structures over or under rivers. Amtrak has been upgrading the tracks and wires along the NEC to international standardsbut more slowly and in fewer places than many railroad experts think appropriate. The wires that provide electricity to trains are especially important, and especially old: The Pennsy wrapped up its initial electrification of the NEC in 1935. Their simple design, in which wires hang from one pole to the next, limits top speeds to 145 mph and risks breakdowns when hot weather causes the wires to expand and sag. The fastest parts of the NEC feature whats known as constant-tension catenary, with weights and pulleys to keep wires straight. Thats a standard sight on railroads in other countries, even for slower routes. [Photo: Amtrak] Constant tension is the way to go for both speed and reliability reasons, said Nolan Hicks, a veteran New York City transportation reporter. Hes the author of an extensive report for New York Universitys Transit Costs Project on accelerating regional rail lines by adopting international best practices. After years of Amtrak reserving this power upgrade as a sort of infrastructure treat for especially straight segments of the corridor, its now expanding those bits of constant-tension catenarynotably, extending it from that small 160 mph stretch in New Jersey south to Trenton. Amtrak also now plans to install this high-speed infrastructure on upcoming bridge replacements, such as one planned over the Susquehanna River in Maryland, and in other regions where the track alignment can support speeds of 145 mph. Thats a notable change, but the railroad isnt ready to predict faster trip times, saying only that they will be determined based on infrastructure improvements we will also make along the Corridor. An April 2025 Transit Costs Project report outlined $12.5 billion in additional infrastructureif built at Western European costs, not American costs to datethat could drop travel times from D.C. to NYC and NYC to Boston to an hour and 56 minutes each. High-speed hopes elsewhere The work of upgrading the NEC, sometimes one pole and wire at a time, can seem boring compared to next-gen possibilities like magnetic-levitation trains or Elon Musks vision of hyperloop vehicles running in a partial vacuum. But maglev trains remain scarce and expensive, while the hyperloop turned out to be vaporware. Fantasizing about those sci-fi concepts has not sped NEC travel times by a second, but it has been effective at talling investments in the proven technology of steel wheels on steel rails. The nations most ambitious attempt at building a high-speed rail network from scratch, California High-Speed Rail, has been a victim of that distraction tactic: Musk admitted in 2019 that he hyped hyperloop in part because he hated that project. California, meanwhile, didnt help CAHSR by outsourcing most of its management, a consultant-dense strategy that wasted time and money. After surviving one round of attempted Trump-administration funding cancellations (its fighting off another), the project has finally been moving management in-house as California has streamlined some environmental permitting regulations. Its also working to accelerate construction by adopting international standards that could cut tunneling distances in half. But its newest optimum scenario still has service from San Francisco to the Los Angeles high-desert exurb of Palmdale waiting until 2038 and costing $87.12 billion to build; reaching L.A.s Union Station would follow years and billions of dollars later. The much newer Brightline West project, which plans to build a high-speed line from L.A.s eastern suburbs to Las Vegas, has a simpler and shorter route. But its parent firm faces financing challenges compounded by rising costs that the Department of Transportation now estimates at $21.5 billion. Jeans-Gail remains optimistic about both projects, but for different reasons. Ill note that the Trump Administration, via Secretary Duffy, has had nice things to say about that project, he says of Brightline West. As for CASHR: California is the only state thats big enough and wealthy enough to even attempt to keep a project of this magnitude going in the face of this kind of schizophrenic federal partnership. Putting high-speed rail on a faster track across the U.S. will require change at both the federal level and in states such as Texas, where elected leaders have sometimes treated passenger rail as socialism on steel wheels. But railroads and rail authorities would help their own cause if they could simply steal the best ideas of other countries instead of trying to be American originals. Meanwhile, an Acela of any generation may not travel nearly as fast as the trains in these plans and in those other lands. But it does have the advantage of running on rails today.
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E-Commerce
Some flavor crazes flirt with us and fade. Others stay and make themselves at home. Its too soon to tell for sure, but the Dubai chocolate movement seems to have put down roots and is spreading at a brisk clip. The sweet flavors and thick texture that have made Dubai chocolate bars a hit are morphing into other kinds of confections too. Lets back up for a minute. The original and now-classic Dubai chocolate bar was created by Fix Chocolatier in the United Arab Emirates in 2021, and by 2023 had exploded on social media. Rich and indulgent, it features a thick, milk chocolate shell usually encasing a creamy pistachio (and often tahini) filling mixed with crispy, shredded, phyllo-like pastry called kadayif. Global brands and small bakers alike are riffing on the concept with different flavors, translating the concept to croissants, milkshakes, and more. Fillings range from peanut butter and jelly to smores to matcha. I dont call this a trend anymore its a whole new thing, said Din Allall, whose family business, The Nuts Factory, has about 150 U.S. stores featuring nuts, dried fruits, and candies. He carries 12 flavors of Dubai chocolate bar, as well as chocolate- and pistachio-covered Dubai dates, Dubai-coated roasted nuts, a layered Dubai chocolate strawberry parfait, and a Dubai Golden Chocolate bar infused with edible 24-karat gold for $79.99 (their regular 6.5-ounce bars sell for $18.99). It’s not just the flavors that make Dubai chocolate different, Allall says, but the bar’s structure too “huge, thick, with lots of filling.” Big retailers and restaurants have gotten on board Trader Joes carries a Dubai chocolate bar made by Patislove. IHOP introduced a limited-time Dubai pancake stack in some locations in August. Baskin-Robbins has some Dubai-inspired ice cream products on its menu, while Costco sells a range of Dubai chocolate confections, including a Dubai chocolate cake. Walmart and QVC also sell Dubai chocolate. Swiss chocolate giant Lindt has a bar, and drew crowds when it debuted a limited number of them in Europe last fall. For me, its the crunch,” said Erica Lefkowits, who was buying some Dubai chocolate recently in Dublin. “The chocolate is soft and melty, and the filling is creamy, and then the crunch of the kadayif. Its all about the texture. Plus, its sugar. She was a little annoyed at the price, higher than your average chocolate bar. Part of Dubai chocolate’s appeal, though, is the way it feels simultaneously indulgent and worldly. Pistachios, rose, saffron and cardamom bring luxury, travel and exoticism to the chocolate party. Despite the price, Ive never seen a single item sell like this in my 50 years of retailing, said Stew Leonard, Jr., CEO of Stew Leonard’s grocery stores in the New York metropolitan area. The chain introduced the BeeMax Dubai chocolate bar in March, watched it fly out the doors, he said, and then launched their own house-branded version (made by the company Chocopologie). They’ve introduced a Dubai chocolate gift box for the holidays, which includes teeny Dubai ice cream cones, Dubai pralines and two bars. Some other widely distributed brands in the U.S. are Moda, Magno and Leonessa. Other iterations of Dubai chocolate include Chocolove’s little candies and Matteo’s Coffee Syrups’ sugar-free chocolate coffee syrup. Katie Workman, Associated Press
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E-Commerce
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