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After two weeks of intense political and legal scrutiny, the Federal Reserve will seek to make this week’s meeting about interest rates as straightforward and uneventful as possible, though President Donald Trump probably still won’t like the result.The central bank’s interest rate-setting committee is almost certain to keep its key short-term rate unchanged at about 3.6%, after three straight quarter-point cuts last year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after December’s meeting that they were “well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves” before making any further moves.When the Fed lowers its short-term rate, it can over time influence other borrowing costs for things like mortgages, auto loans and business borrowing, though those rates are also affected by market forces.This week’s meeting one of eight the Fed holds each year will be overshadowed by the bombshell revelation earlier this month that the Justice Department has subpoenaed the Fed as part of a criminal investigation into testimony Powell gave last June about a $2.5 billion building renovation. It’s the first time a sitting Fed chair has been investigated, and prompted an unusually public rebuke from Powell.Now, Powell will have to shift from a dispute with the White House to emphasizing that the Fed’s decisions around interest rates are driven by economic concerns, not politics. Powell said Jan. 11 that the subpoenas were “pretexts” to punish the Fed for not cutting rates as sharply as Trump wants.Powell will be “under even more pressure to underscore, ‘everything we’re doing here is all about the economics,'” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist and chief economist at New Century Advisors. “‘We didn’t think about the politics.'”Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and also a former Fed staffer, said that despite the scrutiny, the Fed can be expected to consider its interest rate policies like it always does.“The meetings have a regular flow to them,” he said. “There are presentations that are made, there are discussions that have to be had. Some of these other broader-based attacks on the Fed don’t really come up.”Not long after the Justice Department’s subpoenas, the Supreme Court last week considered whether Trump can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies. No president has fired a governor in the Fed’s 112-year history. During an oral argument, the justices appeared to be leaning toward allowing her to stay in her job until the case is resolved.Other Fed officials have also signaled the central bank is likely to keep rates unchanged at their two-day meeting that ends Wednesday. The Fed’s three rate cuts last year were intended to bolster the economy after hiring slowed sharply over the summer and fall in the wake of Trump’s April tariffs on dozens of countries.Yet the unemployment rate ticked lower in December, after picking up for much of last year, and there are other signs the job market may be stabilizing. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits has stayed historically low, a sign layoffs haven’t spiked.Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated and actually ticked higher last year, according to the Fed’s preferred measure. Prices rose 2.8% in November from a year earlier, the latest data available. That is up from 2.6% in November 2024.Unless businesses start cutting jobs or the unemployment rate rises, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates again for at least a few months, economists say. If inflation slowly declines this year, as economists expect, the Fed may cut again in the spring or summer. Wall Street investors expect just two quarter-point rate reductions this year, according to futures prices.Many economists expect growth could pick up in the coming months, which would be another reason to forego rate cuts. Gapen estimates that tax refunds could be about 20% higher this spring than last year as the Trump administration’s tax cuts take effect. Refunds could average $3,500, Gapen said.The economy expanded at a 4.4% annual rate in last year’s July-September quarter and may have grown at a similarly healthy pace in the final three months of last year. If such solid growth continues, Fed officials will likely wait to see if hiring picks up as well, further reducing the need for more rate cuts. Christopher Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
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Whether hes climbing skyscrapers in Taiwan or working to build the Honnold Foundation, free solo climber and activist Alex Honnold remains an optimist. He sat down with Fast Company to talk about why a good outlook is essentialboth for his sport and in the fight for the planet. Honnold also reflects on education, human potential, overconsumption, and whats at stake for American national parks and public lands.
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E-Commerce
Ive always been somewhat ritualistic, shaped by my Midwestern upbringing in a modest immigrant family. I remember my parents calculating the mileage of our 82 Honda Civic in a notepad after every fill-up, the same car I eventually inherited in high school. Or saving every receipt on vacation to audit our daily spending down to the dollar. In every sense, they were amazing parents, and their rituals instilled in me a desire to be intentional about how I lived my life. As human beings in a world of constant distraction, time is the most precious resource we have. As a CEO, managing that resource is one of the most important skills you can master. And its no picnic. Ive often said work-life balance in the C-suite is an illusion. Its a worthwhile concept, but just like every cause has an effect, every choice has a consequence. Work out or binge-watch a show? Travel the world or save for a house? One isnt better than the other; theyre just choices. Rituals structure your time. Put simply, the more deliberate you are with your habits and behaviors, the more intentional you can be with that time. They dont emerge from nowhere; theyre developed and refined over years of trial and error. How we create and, more importantly, maintain habits is deeply personal. What works for me almost certainly wont work for someone else. RITUALS IN SERVICE OF OTHERS GE, a company known for its highly organized, almost programmatic culture, is where I honed many of my habits. Early in my career, I worked 12- to 13-hour days, socialized until midnight, slept four or five hours, and hit repeat. At 26, I became a manager for the first time and realized that my colleagues, many of them only a year or two younger, were looking to me for guidance. Rituals were no longer just a catalyst for my own success; they became a way to deliver on my responsibility to othersa mindset that still defines my leadership at Twilio 25 years later. THE 70-20-10 RULE About 18 months ago, I met with a mentor, a seasoned leader and board chairman for some of the worlds top businesses. He shared a piece of advice that resonated with me: never spend evenings on things that aren’t mission critical. His point was simple: if its not family, it better be work. Otherwise, skip it. Apart from a select few industry events, I decline nearly all networking and work-adjacent invitations so I can spend my time on what matters: showing up for my family and the company I run. Most of my rituals orbit my calendar. I refuse to fill it with anything that drains attention or energy, both people and topics, personal or professional. Thats why I adhere to a 70-20-10 rule: 70% of my time on what matters, 20% on what must get done, and 10% on what gives me energy. That leaves exactly 0% for distractions. Speaking of those work-life consequences, Ive missed milestones and moments with friends and family I can never get back. But I made choices that were right for me at the time and have few regrets. Ive been incredibly fortunate to carve out a life my parents only dreamed about. Today, as a soon-to-be empty nester, Im much more intentional (and present) about building rituals around moments that matter mostthat 70%like family dinners: a ritual I almost never miss when Im in town. RITUALS BEHIND MY ROUTINE Rituals are, by nature, structured and repetitive, but they arent immutable. Ive adapted mine to meet different stages of life and careerkids, promotions, jobs. Ive built and shed many, but these seven are most foundational for me right now: Power of a plan: It sounds obvious, but aday without a plan is a ship without a rudder. I start each day, week, month, and year with one. It prioritizes what matters and reinforces accountability. Refill the tank: My parents were firm believers in work hard, play hard, and that mantra shapes my weekends. While I do work, I make sure Saturdays and Sundays are memorableor epic as my baseline. With one kid in college and another headed there soon, I prioritize my time with them as much as possible, with regular trips to the record store with my daughter or the driving range with my son. Delegate a lot: There are two forces at work here: I have a highly competent staff, and delegation empowers ownership (how else do we learn?). And it lightens my load. Avoid multitasking: Multitasking is a myth; research backs this, and so does my personal experience. Its unavoidable sometimes, but always at the expense of something else. I try to avoid it, at work and home. Declutter the inbox: Email overload is real. I embrace a philosophy of inbox zero to reduce clutter and track priorities. No meeting default: I only attend critical meetings and believe they are for three things: dialogue, debate, and decision-making. Everything else can be done asynchronously, and I regularly purge those that dont meet this bar. FINAL THOUGHTS The more responsibility you take on as a leader, the greater the demands on your time and energy, and the more critical it becomes to perform for those who depend on your judgment, guidance, and steady hand. Decades into my career, Im a creature of habit. Whether in the office with colleagues, on the road with customers, or at home with family, my days are anchored by rituals. So, as the energy and enthusiasm of the New Year inevitably wanes, resolutions will too. Its rituals, ones that fuel creativity, value precious time, and set you and your teams up for sustainable success, that last. Khozema Shipchandler is the CEO of Twilio.
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