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Inside a warehouse in Santa Clara, California, a company called Vintage Electric Bikes builds sleek e-bikes with retro styling, customized for each customers order. But like other bike brands, the components it uses come from a global supply chain. The bicycle industry, theres just no f***ing way we can survive 100% [made in] America, says Eddie Johnson, sales director at the company. Its not possible. That means that tariffs, if they stay in place, will hit the industry hard. Last year, 115 electric bike brands left the market after another round of tariffs went into effect, according to Peter Woolery, who analyzes bike industry data. (Those tariffs were put in place during the first Trump administration, but e-bikes had a temporary exemption that expired last summer and President Biden did not renew.) View this post on Instagram A post shared by Vintage Electric Bikes (@vintageelectric) When Vintage Electric Bikes first launched more than a decade ago, it tried to do as much as possible locally, working with local welders and machine shops to make parts like frames and handlebars. But when one key local foundry closedafter Google bought out its lease to expand he tech company’s officesVintage Electric Bikes couldnt find another local partner to replace it. It had to begin using a supplier in Taiwan, where most of the worlds high-end bikes are now made. Other parts, like e-bike batteries and motors, always came from other countries like China. “There’s no way around it,” Johnson says. Theres an argument that more bike assembly could happen in the U.S., Johnson says. But the hundred or so parts that go into making a bikespokes, chains, wheels, tires, saddles, seat posts, bearings, etceteraare unlikely to be made here. In the short term, it isnt feasible. And if it happened over the long term, he argues that it would make products unaffordable for consumers because of higher American wages. He makes the comparison to shoes. Do you really think American workers are going to want to build Nike shoes? No. And if they are going to make Nike shoes, you need to invest in that factory. You need to invest in the training. And then all of a sudden, your Nike shoe has all of this added cost. Do you think the American consumer is going to buy your average Nike sneaker for a few hundred dollars? Still, there are already some efforts to bring back some parts of bike manufacturing. Bloom, a Detroit-based startup, is working with bike brands and other types of companies to connect them with American factories. A factory that used to do TV assembly, for example, is now working on bike assembly. Another factory that used to make car parts, like dashboards, is also working on e-bikes. There are advantages to doing the work in the U.S. beyond supporting jobs, says Chris Nolte, Bloom’s cofounder. If you were to assemble that product domestically, you could really reduce your stock that you need to keep on hand by probably 70%, maybe even more, Nolte says. Theres a significant benefit there if a company doesnt have much cash available. They can still give the consumer the choices that they want, but have that flexibility. It also makes it easier to take back parts, including batteries, for recycling and reuse. Theres a chicken-and-egg problem, says Nolte: Some companies have found that doesnt make sense to assemble in the U.S. if components arent made here, and conversely, it also doesnt make sense to make components in the U.S. if assembly is happening somewhere else. But he says some large bike brands are working on plans for American manufacturing. Factories that are shared by multiple brands might be another possibility. (More complicated solutions may also be possible, like building foreign trade zones where some foreign parts could legally be imported tariff-free if a certain percentage of the other work happens in the U.S. But this type of zone is expensive to set up.) Reshoring bike manufacturing “is going to be a pretty painful process,” says Ash Lovill, vice president of government relations at the nonprofit People for Bikes. “It just costs significantly more right now to manufacture in the U.S. All of the companies that were manufacturing in the U.S. in the ’80s and ’90s moved out; moving them back is going to be really difficult.” To support American bike manufacturing, the government should help the industry build the infrastructure that’s necessary, she says. A bill that’s currently in Congress, the Domestic Bike Production Act, could help if it moves forward. In the meantime, bike prices are going to jump higher. Trump’s current tariffs on Chinawhich may changeadd up to around 90% for bikes now, says Lovill. Trump also removed the “de minimis” exemption that allowed products under $800 to be imported from China without tariffs, so if companies import smaller bike parts, those will also now cost more. Some companies still have inventory, so can wait a little longer before changing prices. (One e-bike company has been scrambling to receive a shipment that just arrived in order to avoid an unexpected $1 million tariff charge.) Others have already raised the price of their bikes. And its unclear how much consumers will be willing to pay at a time when the overall economy is so shaky. Theres going to be a shakedown, says Johnson. I dont see how certain brands survive. Vintage Electric Bikes makes a premium product; lower-end e-bikes are more at risk. I know the margin that this industry operates on, and I know that those $1,500 bikes are already operating on a fairly thin margin. I dont understand how overnight the e-bike consumer is going to accept the fact that they need to spend $3,500 on what was a $1,500 bike, just because of these tariffs. How do these brands survive when the consumer cant afford the product anymore?
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E-Commerce
Almost seamlessly, the two sides of a scenic forest in Alberta, Canada, have been woven back together. Located between Calgary and Banff National Park, this stretch of the Canadian Rockies is sliced in two by the Trans-Canada Highway, one of the busiest roadways in the province. That’s had deadly consequences for the area’s abundant wildlife, as well as the tens of thousands of people who drive through it every day. But now, after years of mounting wildlife-vehicle collisions, the danger to animals and humans is being addressed with a stunning new wildlife overpass. The Bow Valley Gap wildlife overpass is a roughly 200-foot-wide cap over a four-lane highway, topped with soil and forest-like plantings that creates a bridge almost indistinguishable from the forest on either side. [Photo: Neil Zeller/courtesy Dialog] The design and engineering firm Dialog led the structural engineering and landscape architecture of the overpass, which was funded by Alberta’s provincial department of transportation and is now the first wildlife overpass in Canada constructed outside of a national park. It’s in an area where reported vehicle collisions with deer, elk, coyotes, and grizzly bears happen 69 times per year on average. The very rough rule of thumb is for every collision that is recorded or every carcass that is seen on the side of the road, you can usually double that number, says Dialog’s Neil Robson, the overpass project manager and lead designer. The best way to mitigate collisions is to try to prevent them. The number one way to prevent them is actually fencing. But fencing doesn’t allow connectivity of the animal. It keeps them on both sides of the highway, Robson says. Very helpful for collisions, but not helpful for migration patterns, connectivity, the ability to get mates, genetic diversity, and that’s where the overpass comes into play. [Photo: Neil Zeller/courtesy Dialog] The overpass sits atop two arched tunnels that cover the two traffic lanes and shoulders on each side of the road. Seen from a driver’s perspective, the overpass has a smooth M shape, and is covered with grasses, shrubs, and trees. A tall metal fence runs along its edges, as well as on the sides of the road leading up to the overpass, running a total of more than seven miles. Robson says the design of the overpass was heavily informed by animal migration data, with its width sized to accommodate the large species that are known to travel in this area. Wildlife biologists were involved during the initial design phases for the overpass and helped to shape its look and form. The overpass topography was influenced by the species that live in the area, and its slopes were calculated to accommodate what animalsboth predator and preyneed to see to survive in the wild. If you’re going up a crest and or up a hill and it’s too sharp, that’s not ideal for a prey species because they don’t really have the line of sight [to avoid predators], Robson says. Flatter topography for viewpoints and not having blind corners and other types of things also factor into the design. [Photo: Neil Zeller/courtesy Dialog] These kinds of considerations are fairly new ones for wildlife overpasses. Dialog has some experience in this unique building typology, having designed a handful that already exist in Banff National Park. But Robson says the design process has become much more interdisciplinary in just the past few years, with designers and scientists working together. It’s not just the engineering professional inheriting the recommendations from the biologist and ecologist or reading the report and then making their own decisions. We’re going to those sites together. We’re working through the designs together, he says. That’s even affecting how these projects are planted. For the Bow Valley Gap overpass, scientists helped determine the ideal mix of plant species that would mimic the forest surroundings but not encourage animals to linger near what is still a potential collision area. We do want the landscape architecture on top, the grasses, the shrubs, and the trees, to be as close to the natural surroundings as possible, Robson says. But you also don’t want them to be overly edible, because if you plant them in and a herd of deer or elk start to chew on things, you’re not going to have much vegetation left. Those plants are still maturing on the overpass, which was officially completed in December. But even as it grows in, Robson says the design process behind the overpass is informing future wildlife overpasses in Canada, including three that Dialog is currently designing. And, perhaps more importantly, it’s already bing used by the species it was designed to protect.
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E-Commerce
The extreme tariffs that President Donald Trump has applied to nations across the world have had a whipsaw effect on global trade, with markets nosediving and countries scrambling to strategize a response. Supply chains in particular have been upended: Clothes-makers fear fluctuations across the entire production system, the cost of furniture and other home goods is likely to soon spike, and companies like Apple, which manufacture much of their high-tech products in China, have been caught in a trade-war nightmare. The same strains and stresses will impact the car industry. In addition to levies placed on foreign carmakers like BMW and Toyota, even American-made cars tend to rely on a complex web of parts and labor from both Mexico and China. Currently, about 6 out of every 10 auto replacement parts used in the U.S. are imported from Mexico, Canada, and China, according to the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA). And the sharp rise in costs wont just impact those looking to buy a new ride. Higher replacement costs mean insurers will likely foot a much bigger bill to resolve claims and fix damaged automobiles. That means higher costs trickling down to consumers, and increases in insurance rates that may be some of the highest in recent history. Robert Passmore, department vice president at the APCIA, estimates the industry might see anywhere between $30 and $60 billion more in personal auto insurance claim costs in 2025 alone. Individual annual car insurance costs will vary, but the average American, who pays roughly $2,000 a year, will see an increase. Insurify, an insurance shopping marketplace, predicts insurance costs will spike 19% this year after the impacts of Trump’s “Liberation Day” cycle through supply chains. Without the tariff increase, insurance rates would have only gone up 5%. Thats a huge increase in cost due to tariffs, specifically the levies on automobiles and auto parts introduced in late March. In addition, the Canada and Mexico-specific tariffs that impact many automaker supply chains, and the steel and aluminum tariffs, also made replacing busted cars more expensive. That adds up to about $350 extra per household per year. Insurance companies need a few months of data to get exact costs, and it takes a while for new premium costs to cycle in across the population, but by the end of the year, unless Trump backs off the tariffs, higher prices should be widespread. Matt Brannon, a data journalist at Insurify, said hes seen reports that insurance companies are already prepping agents to explain to their customers that these are tariff-driven increases in their insurance costs. Roughly 95% of Americans drive at least occasionally, per the AAA. Due to our car-centric transportation network, the vast majority dont have the option to get around without a car and the compulsory insurance. The cost of covering your car has whipsawed in recent years, dropping dramatically during the pandemic, due to less travel and few drives to work, and therefore fewer accidents to cover. It spiked once driversaccustomed to empty streets and faster speedsgot back on the road and accident rates increased. It jumped by 11% and 16% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, according to data from ValuePenguin, and was forecast to stabilize and slow down this year, until tariffs significantly increased the cost of anything related to a car. Any time your insurance rates go up, it eats into your household budget, said Rob Bhatt, insurance analyst for ValuePenguin. You have to have car insurance to drive legally, and so, you know, this isn’t really discretionary spending we’re talking about. Its more bad news for consumers. Insurance companies feel compelled to raise premiums to cover the more costly claims they need to pay; it doesnt help that, as cars have become more high-tech with bumper cameras and computer systems, theyve also become more expensive to fix. Analysts say that the insurance industry is attempting to lobby local, state, and federal governments to pass more stringent speed limits and safety laws to help reduce accidents and their exposure, but its not making much headway. Some Americans may attempt to lower their monthly insurance burden by increasing the deductible amount on their insurance, but that risks much more financial damage in the wake of an accident. At this point, short of Trump reversing the tariffs, the only hope for lower insurance rates seems to be if Americans miraculously and simultaneously become better drivers.
Category:
E-Commerce
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