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Trump imposed tariffs this week on the countrys three biggest trade partnersincluding 25% on all goods from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese importswhich will ripple across the U.S. economy. One particular area where the impacts will be felt is housing, since construction relies on metal, lumber, and machinery heavily imported from those three countries. This will result in higher costs, intensifying already excruciating affordability issues, says Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist for RSM, a global consultancy. Its too early for analysts to have exact figures on just how much housing costs will be impacted, and much of the predicted increases have already occurred, as a fearful industry priced in trade disruptions in recent months. But overall, tariffs are expected to increase prices on raw materials, extend project timelines, raise uncertainty and make building more expensive. One estimate found the measures would potentially raise material costs by a few billion dollars a year. Itll put a dent in the construction industry, which represents 4% of the nations GDP. And finding domestically made substitutes will prove incredibly difficult in the short termif not impossible, due to the substantial cost and challenge of building up manufacturing capacity or reopening shuttered factories. Nearly a third of all wood used for homes comes from Canadian forests, says Brusuelas, and those costs will be passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices. Commercial developments, from skyscrapers to apartment buildings to factories, will also feel the pinch due to their reliance on steel and aluminum. Even though the U.S. currently makes 80% of the steel used domestically, prices will still be impacted, according to Tom Park, national strategic supply chain vice president at Skanska. Just the threat of tariffs has pushed steel prices up 15% since January 1, and contributed to a sharp rise in material prices in February. Park predicts single-digit total price increases in commercial construction due to tariffs, a small figure but enough to make projects economically infeasible, or end up pushing up rent on finished apartment buildings. Projects with smaller margins, especially affordable housing developments, will be challenged to make financing work with additional material costs. The latest round of tariffs hits right where it hurts for builders. Canada produces much of the lumber used in our countrys stick-built, single-family homes, as well as roughly a quarter of the aluminum used in curtain walls and building facades. Mexico supplies much of the machinery and appliances used in apartments and offices, as well as finished goods and heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) supplies. And China also contributes manufactured goods, especially switchgear and other electrical equipment thats vital to larger offices, buildings, and commercial warehouses and factories. Projects in pre-construction, a phase during which designs are decided, can still make some alterations to decrease the use of steel or alter layouts to mitigate some of this increased cost. But there simply isnt enough slack to alter the overall shift in costs, especially if these tariffs remain in place for months. Morningstar analysts predict a significant number of planned projects will be delayed or canceled. Many suppliers tried to stockpile goods after the November election, in anticipation of the tariff threat. Brusuelas said orders for industrial supply materials from overseas spiked by $22 billion between December and January. But even that anticipatory buying can only go so far. Certain firms stocked up on materials and have clauses in their contracts for these issues, said Nicholas Pantuliano, co-founder and chief operating officer of developers PTM Partners. But it wont change the fact that certain projects wont happen, and more projects will go by the wayside. Even perceived cost increases will create palpitations throughout the industry. And more tariffs may be on the way. President Trump has threatened an additional 25% tariff on aluminum and steel, set to come online March 12. That would mean tariffs on aluminum from Canada, for instance, would total 50%. And trying to resuscitate domestic production by opening or reopening an aluminum smelter would take years, and require both substantial electrical power and a team of trained workers. Its such a global market, said Mike Putnam, head of delivery at Unispace, a global design and construction firm. Everything is impacted by goods coming from overseas, and its hard to find a true domestic product.
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E-Commerce
The L.A.-based fashion brand Lisa Says Gah just teamed up with Polly Pocket for a new limited-edition collection, and it appears to be a sign that Mattel is already gunning to recapture the marketing magic of the Barbie movie. Polly Pocket Says Gah! is an assortment of cardigans, baby tees, accessories, and PVC slingback kitten heels, all rendered in a pastel palette and topped with playful details like ruffled edges and quilted stitching. Prices range from $50 to $198. It debuts today exclusively on the Lisa Says Gah website. [Photo: Lisa Says Gah] A Polly Pocket film has been in the works with MGM since 2021, but it faced a bump in the road last July when Lena Dunham, who was going to write and direct the movie, ultimately dropped out of the project. Communications on the status of the Polly Pocket film have been quiet since thenbut the movie is still in the development, Mattel confirmed to Fast Company. The studio has yet to share a release date. On the design side, the collaboration merges an ongoing interest in coquette aesthetics and Y2K nostalgia. But more broadly, its also harbinger that Mattels next blockbuster marketing campaign is launching sooner than we thought. [Photo: Lisa Says Gah] Coquette core meets 90s nostalgia The seed for Polly Pocket Says Gah! was first planted when Mattel reached out to the fashion brand with an Instagram DM. Lisa Says Gah founder Lisa Bühler felt the partnership would be a natural fit. Growing up in the 90s, Polly Pocket was such a core memoryplaying with those tiny outfits, mixing and matching looksit was all about creativity and self-expression, says Bühler. LSG has always had Polly Pocket undertones in our playful cuts, graphic tees, and vibrant energy. [Photo: Lisa Says Gah] The limited collection represents an evolution of the coquette core trend that emerged last winter: An aesthetic that fully embraces feminine touches like bows, ribbons, and lace. For the past year or so, this look has come to encompass a cultural movement online toward accepting the trappings of girlhood (e.g., girl dinner and girl math) that some women say they previously felt compelled to repress. Coquette core has enjoyed a longer-than-usual trend cycle thanks to the influence of rising stars like Sabrina Carpenter, whose Brigitte Bardot-esque look highlights soft, flirty touches and light pastels. According to Pinterest, the trend is expected to continue into 2025: per the sites Pinterest Predicts 2025 report, searches for both ultra-feminine, rococo-inspired looks and doll-like makeup are on the rise. [Photo: Lisa Says Gah] It makes sense that the Polly Pocket Says Gah! collab would incorporate nods to coquette fashion (like heart-shaped jacket pockets and tiny ribbon bows on handbags) given that Polly Pocket was created as a line of miniature doll toys for young girls. The collection adds its own spin to the trend, though, by fusing its whimsical details with recognizable 90s Polly Pocket IP as a nod to grown-up fansbuilding on a current Y2K resurgence hats popped up everywhere from the cereal aisle to music and tech. [Photo: Lisa Says Gah] Lisa Says Gah’s life-size Polly Pockets Instead of incorporating the Polly Pocket brands current logo, the Lisa Says Gah collection uses the brands original logo, which ran from 1989 to 1998. It also takes clear inspiration from the packaging of vintage Polly Pocket toys, which recently began selling for upward of $1,000 due to a burgeoning market of collectors. In fact, one of Polly Pocket Says Gahs signature prints is made up of various Polly Pocket compacts, a must-have portable toy in the 90s that was meant to mimic real makeup packaging but contained a whole tiny dollhouse. “This was a true collaboration,” Bühler says, noting that Mattel provided her team with 90s Polly Pocket images and prints from its archives for inspiration. “Our goal was to bring Polly Pockets tiny, magical world to life in a way that feels fresh, wearable, and true to LSG and its community.” That comes through in the apparel. Each detail of the new collection seems crafted to allow 90s babies to dress like life-size Polly Pocket dolls. [Photo: Lisa Says Gah] The first sign of a Polly Pocket movie Long before the Barbie movie debuted in theaters on July 21, 2023, the world had already been introduced to more than 100 Barbie-based brand tie-ins, including a signature XBox console, a line of Ruggable rugs, a Hot Wheels car, and a collection at Gap. Mattel and Universals wide-reaching marketing effort made the Barbie brand virtually unavoidable (and forced Fast Company to issue a moratorium on any new Barbie collabs.) It was such a smash hit that it arguably changed the way that major movie studios approach adapting recognizable IP, as in the case of 2024s Wicked, which similarly engaged in a months-long brand collab blitz. Now it looks like Mattel is gearing up for an even more drawn-out movie marketing play. Alongside the Lisa Says Gah collab, Polly Pocket has also recently debuted collaborations with The Office, Cotton On, and Funko (the latter two also use the brands 90s logo.) For now, its unclear whether there is a Polly Pocket summer on the horizonbut if there is, we can be sure to expect plenty more collaborations to come.
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E-Commerce
Eva Rodriguez has earned minimum wage at a Subway franchise in the Eagle Rock neighborhood of Los Angeles for more than a decade. She has stocked ingredients, wiped down tables, and served thousands of meals in the strip mall shop thats sandwiched between an optical store and a Mediterranean restaurant. Often, she worked 70-hour weeks so her family could afford the basics. Im not someone with a lot of money. I have to fight to eat everyday. I have to fight to have a place to live, Rodriguez said in Spanish. Only last year did she learn that she didnt have to labor under those conditionsa revelation that led her to accuse the franchises owner of violating numerous labor laws. Rodriguez claims her boss forced her to work under two names to avoid paying overtime rates, denied her sick pay, skimmed her tips, and threatened her residency status. She is seeking nearly $100,000 in back pay and punitive damages, according to a complaint she filed with the California labor commissioner against the owner, Amarjit Singh, known to workers as Ms. Happy. Ive been a victim of every kind of theft you can imagine, said Rodriguez, who is 58 and a grandmother of seven. Singh declined repeated requests to comment, including one made in a letter hand-delivered to her restaurant. Subway did not respond to requests for comment. While wage theft is common in low-wage industries, Rodriguezs case is particularly egregious due to the sheer scope of alleged violations, according to Daniel Rojas, one of the lawyers representing her. It is especially prevalent in industries with significant numbers of immigrant workers, like construction, healthcare, and food services, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. In 2023, more than 1.5 million low-wage workers in California were victims of minimum wage violations, more than double the figure of just a decade earlier, according to a report from Rutgers University. Advocates say foreign-born workers like Rodriguez may now be at higher risk of exploitation. The Trump administration is leading a crackdown on undocumented immigrants that many say is threatening immigrant communities more broadly. They say raising awareness about existing worker protections may provide the best defense against a rising tide of anti-immigrant sentiment and workplace abuses. Early last year, an organizer with the California Fast Food Workers Union visited the Subway where Rodriguez works and invited her to join the union, a moment she described as a light from God that appeared on my path. That encounter made her aware of her rights in the workplace. Formed last February, the California Fast Food Workers Union is the first statewide fast-food workers union in the country, and is focused on raising wages and improving working conditions for the more than 750,000 fast-food workers employed in the state. Although Rodriguez has the backing of the union, she hasn’t had an easy time challenging her employer. She alleges that after she delivered a letter to her managers demanding proper pay and an end to the violations, Singh retaliated by reducing her hours dramatically. Rodriguez detailed her claims in the complaint she filed in Los Angeles Superior Court against Subway, Singh, and Singhs company, Guardashan & Happy Inc. Over the course of three years, Rodriguez claims that she was denied nearly $54,000 in wages, most of which she attributed to thousands of hours of unpaid overtime. Though Rodriguez claims the wage theft has been ongoing for most of her time working at Subway, she is only seeking to reclaim three years of lost wages because the statute of limitations on earlier alleged violations has expired. But Rodriguez finds some of the violations that she alleges occurred before then to be particularly galling. During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Singh allegedly convinced Rodriguez to work more than 1,400 hours without compensation, saying the shop might otherwise close due to low traffic. During that same time, Singhs Guardashan & Happy Inc. received more than $850,000 in paycheck protection loans, restaurant revitalization fund grants, and employee retention tax creditsall designed to keep her business open and workers paid, according to the complaint Rodriguez filed with the California labor commissioner last August. Upwards of $300,000 of Singhs PPP loans have since been forgiven. Some of the alleged violations highlight the way in which even immigrants with legal residency are vulnerable to exploitation. After injuring her foot and back during a fall inside Subways freezer in 2023, Rodriguez filed a workers compensation claim to cover the costs of treatment. When Singh learned of the filing, Rodriguez was pressured to drop the claim, according to the complaint she filed with the California labor commissioner. Singh allegedly warned her that the federal government would investigate her, and once officials discovered she had worked under two names, her legal residency would be at risk, the complaint stated. Rodriguez eventually dropped the claim after Singh also allegedly offered to pay her $30,000 and arrange for her to have medical care. But after weeks without the promised treatment or funds, Rodriguez found a workers compensation lawyer and resubmitted the claim to the state. Millions of workers across the country regularly experience similar violations, amounting to tens of billions of dollars in illegally withheld wages every year, according to an Economic Policy Institute report. The average minimum wage violation in California as of 2015 amounted to about $3,400, a small fraction of Rodriguezs claim. The Washington, D.C.-based think tank also found that the countrys 32 million foreign-born workers were especially likely to be the victims of that crime. Kent Wong, project director for Labor and Community Partnerships at the UCLA Labor Center, said foreign-born workers are particularly vulnerable to wage theft because they are often unaware of their rights, either as workers or as immigrants. When workers are informed of their rights as workers, their rights as immigrants, theyre in a better position to exercise those rights. In nonunion workplaces where exploitation is rampant, they are much more vulnerable because they are unaware of their rights, Wong said. The California Fast Food Workers Union, which is affiliated with the Service Employees International Union, has pushed for cities across the state to adopt mandatory know-your-rights training. In 2024, Los Angeles City councilmembers Hugo Soto-Martinez and Katy Yaroslavsky introduced a motion to direct the city attorney to draft an ordinance requiring employers to provide paid time off for fast-food workers to attend such training. The union has pushed for similar measures in Santa Clara County by launching strikes with the support of local lawmakers. (Disclosure: SEIU is a financial supporter of Capital & Main.) For more than a decade, SEIU has been seeking to organize fast-food workers into a union, securing significant victories along the way. Last year, it successfully pushed California lawmakers to establish a fast food council tasked with setting workplace standards and wages. The formation of the California Fast Food Workers Union earlier that year marked another milestone. But despite those gains, CAFFWU lacks the collective bargaining power of more traditional unions. With Trump as president, many fear working conditions for immigrant workers may become even more perilous. In early January, scores of farmworkers were detained by U.S. Border Patrol agents during immigration raids in Bakersfield, California, sending shockwaves of fear through immigrant communities. Tom Homan, Trumps choice for border czar, has pledged to launch similar raids across the country and has directly criticized know-your-rights training. The Trump administration is now also seeking to expedite deportations for more than a million migrants who arrived during the Biden administration by denying them court hearings. We are entering a very dangerous period for immigrant workers, their families, and communities. . . . Many, many millions will be negatively impacted if Trump makes good on his promise to launch the largest mass deportations in U.S. history, Wong said. In the meantime, Rodriguezs newfound understanding of her rights and experience of working with the California Fast Food Workers Union have emboldened her. Im not afraid anymore because I have a union that defends me. . . . I am not fighting to win some money, I am fighting for my rights and the rights of all other workers, Rodriguez said. By Jeremy Lindenfeld, Capital & Main This piece was originally published by Capital & Main, which reports from California on economic, political, and social issues.
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E-Commerce
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