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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its annual survey, which found that the median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 2025 climbed to 40. Thats up from 38 in 2024and far above the median age in 1992, when it was 28. At first glance, it appears that deteriorating housing affordabilitydriven by the Pandemic Housing Boom and the 2022 mortgage-rate shockhas pushed the age of first-time buyers higher. However, when you look across other data sources, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the U.S. Census Bureau, you dont see the same spike. ResiClub dug deeper into the data to figure out whats really going on. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the average first-time homebuyer in 2024 was 36.3 years oldjust a little younger than NARs estimate of the median first-time homebuyer age of 38 in 2024. Initially, one might suspect the difference simply stems from the fact that the New York Fed reports an average while NAR reports a median. However, when you peel back the onion, youll see theres a large historical divergence between the two organizations figures. That raises the question: How did they each collect their data? The NAR data series is calculated by an annual survey. For this year’s survey, NAR mailed out a 120-question survey to 173,250 recent homebuyers. The recent homebuyers had to have purchased a primary residence home between July 2024 and June 2025. In total, 6,103 responses were received this year. The New York Fed doesnt collect its data by survey. Instead, its looking at credit report data, which it says has 5% of nationally representative individuals since 1999. Back in August, ResiClub emailed both NAR and the New York Fed to get their thoughts on the first-time homebuyer data divergence. Jessica Lautz, NARs deputy chief economist, told ResiClub on August 14: “The Federal Reserve is basing their data on credit data. The Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers [from NAR] is based on a survey of those who purchased a primary residence home in the last year. Thus, the NAR survey includes the 9% of first-time buyers who paid cash for their home and did not finance their purchase. Excluded are first-time buyers who purchased a vacation home or mom-and-pop rental as their first purchase. A trend which has popularized as young adults are unable to achieve homeownership in the expensive areas they may live in. The NAR data collection is mid 2023 to mid 2024 vs. a calendar year. Lastly, NAR uses medians as a measure of central tendency vs. average.” Donghoon Lee, an economic research adviser in microeconomics at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told ResiClub on August 13: “We cant tell you how the NAR annual survey was constructed, but in our previous blog, we wrote about a comparison between our data and NAR source. Here are some of the unsophisticated differences. New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel is a panel of credit report data where we follow 5% of nationally representative individuals since 1999, and is not a survey. We are not subject to any low response rate issue of the respondents. We identify first-time homebuyers when a mortgage account appears for the first time on the individuals credit reports. If a home purchase was made without a mortgage (such as a cash purchase) then we dont see thm, and not included in calculating the statistics. My takeaway? Im going to take this particular first-time homebuyer dataespecially the NAR serieswith a grain of salt going forward. Instead, Ill lean more on generational homeownership rates by age. And when you look at those figures, they clearly confirm that younger generations are entering homeownership more slowly than their older peers. ResiClub also messaged Apartment List to get its latest calculation. See below: Apartment Lists analysis shows that with each successive generation, homeownership rates take longer to ramp up. This pattern isnt unique to Gen Zbaby boomers were slower to reach key homeownership milestones than the Silent Generation, Gen X was slower than the boomers, millennials were slower than Gen X, and Gen Z is slower still. The fact that each generation takes a little longer to enter homeownershipduring both periods of good and poor housing affordabilitysuggests an underlying secular shift that isnt just driven by affordability. In my view, that secular shift largely comes down to lifestyle/cultural shifts. With each new generation, Americans are spending more years in school, marrying later, having children later (and having fewer kids), and ultimately buying homes later. I call this phenomenon lifestyle delays. Given how homeownership rates are calculated (the number of owner-occupied housing units divided by the total number of occupied housing units), its likely that the gradual slowdown in homeownership by generation is actually understating the true drop-off. In plain English, what do I mean? If someone in their twenties or thirties is still living with their parents, they technically arent counted as their own household and therefore arent included in the denominator. And when you look closely at the generational data (see the Apartment List analysis above), youll note that with each generation, Americans are taking longer to move out of their parents homes. If you adjust for this, the real homeownership rates by generationsomething John Burns Research and Consulting has analyzedyou find that the generational homeownership drop-off is indeed larger than the headline data suggests.
Category:
E-Commerce
It took the Equinox Groupthe parent company of luxury gym chain Equinox, Equinox hotels, and Soulcyclearound five years to recover from COVID. But the company has recovered, claiming that 2025 will be a record year from a profitability perspective. This year, it announced big plans for expansion. Harvey Spevak, executive chairman and managing partner of Equinox Group, tells us about the company’s plan to open 40 clubs in new markets, its expansion into the Middle East, and the real reason it ditched Kiehls for Grown Alchemist. In the next couple of years, Equinox plans to open 40 new clubs. What is driving this growth? We’ve always been a high growth company leading up to COVID. COVID was pretty rough. The way we thought about our strategy was to rebound the business and then get back to growth and transformation. We’re back to high growth from a financial perspective. From a growth perspective, there’s tremendous demand for the Equinox brand and the Equinox offering in existing markets, and also in lots of new markets. Over the last 12 months, we’ve built a pretty robust pipeline, like you’ve mentioned. That 40 locations is probably closer to 50 at this point. We’ve opened a bunch of locations in new markets this year. We opened our first in Philadelphia Rittenhouse, which is performing extremely well; better than we expected. We opened our first in Seattle in June, also exceeding our expectations. In the fall, we’re opening our first in San Diego. By the end of the year [well have opened], San Diego, West Loop of Chicago, another one in New York, another one in Los Angeles and Santa Monica. We’re excited about all of these. We’ll open five locations between now and by January. How do you decide which new markets to enter? Our real estate team is very knowledgeable about all the markets where we’ve always wanted to go. When I say the markets, it includes cities as well as zip codes, if not by block. That’s a big part of why our unit economics are so strong. But the world has changed in terms of where there is demand. While there continues to be great demand in some of our existing markets like Manhattan, Southern California, Northern California, there’s new markets where we didn’t exist before. I mentioned Philadelphia or Seattle, but then there’s also the South. We recently announced our first location in Nashville that’ll open next year. We think South Florida will become our third biggest market outside of New York and Los Angeles. And a lot of that’s because of the migration of people from New York and other markets. We’re opening our first location in West Palm Beach next month. We sell memberships in advance of opening, and the response has been absolutely outstanding. In West Palm Beach, we started selling memberships in Junethe worst time of the year it could be selling memberships, but we did that because we were going to open in November and we’re going to open with a member count that is higher than what we thought we would achieve in four years. Weve all read about the migration to Florida, but what do you think are the factors leading for places like Nashville to become new markets? These markets are evolving rapidly and there’s greater desire for health and wellness broadly. It’s become a bigger priority during and coming out of COVID than ever before. That’s a global phenomenon. Then you think about the Equinox offering and the authority the brand has around high-performance living; it’s just kind of a perfect storm. Are you opening more Equinox hotels? We have a pipeline on the hotel side of around 10 to 12 new hotels. The difference is the gestation period for a hotel is much longer, particularly when you’re building a new hotel as compared to a club. It takes years. Our next hotel is opening in the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia in spring of 2026. Why the Red Sea? Because there was demand for our brand, our hotel, our club, our entire offering. We also have branded residential there, which is another part of our offering now. But there was a lot of interest in bringing us to a resort location. It’s a beautiful setting. It’s some of the most magnificent water you’ve seen in the world. It’s an undeveloped piece of real estate in Saudi Arabia. So in partnership with the government there and the Sovereign Wealth Fund, they have built out a big area, a marina. Us and some other hotels are going to be operating there. Ours is designed by David Rockwell, and we’re excited about that. We’ve already announced another hotel in Saudi Arabia. There’s one unannounced that’s comingthere’s potentially one, if not two, more in the region. Then we’ve also announced one in Nashville. There’s one we’re working on the Caribbean. It’s remarkable who stays at our hotel now. It’s literally a who’s-who of Fortune 100 companies to people out of Hollywood or in the music industry. Why is the Middle East an attractive location for you to set up shop? It’s fascinating what’s been going on there over the last four or five years. And it varies by country and city, but there’s so much interest in health and wellness, hospitality, living a healthy lifestyle, and the Equinox brand. The brand awareness is very high because a lot of the 30 and 40 year olds in the Middle East have been educated here in the U.S., and they’re educated in a lot of cities where we have big portfolios of clubs. After billionaire real estate developer Stephen Ross, whose company Related is a majority owner of Equinox, held a fundraiser for then-republican candidate Donald Trump in August 2019, a lot of customers boycotted Equinox and Soulcycle clubs. Saudi Arabia doesnt have a great track record when it comes to respecting human rights. Do you worry about the reputational risk to your brand this might have? Fair question. When Stephen did the fundraiser back in summer of 2019, we definitely [were] given a very hard time by our members, our prospective members, what we call our alumni members. It was a time when cancel culture was a very big thing, and we definitely took our hits during that. But what I would also say is that, [it] is because people are so emotionally attached to the Equinox brand. We got a list of all of corporate America that at that time was donating to Donald Trump or the Republican Party. It’s a who’s-who of American household names. We dont donate to any party. Weve always been, in effect, Switzerland and we believe were an inclusive community. I dont mean that just by race or gender. Everybody can have their political views, everybody can have their religious views. That’s the magic of Equinox, that it’s such a diverse and inclusive community, both from our employee side and from our member side. What struck me was because people love us, they expect more from us. At CVS where you buy toothpaste, nobody cared that CVS was one of the biggest donors to Donald Trump at the time. Nobody was canceling them. Stephen Ross, who is obviously a significant investor and a partner, made a personal decision to do something with supporting Donald Trump. It was really from a business perspective more than anything, but that was his decision. It was unfortunate that it affected Equinox and SoulCycle at the time. As we move forward, we’re not going to weigh in on politics, we’re not going to weigh on religion, but peopl are allowed to have their personal points of view. That’s how America was built. It was an unfun time, but we’re always sensitive about who we partner with, big and small. When you talk about the Middle East, everybody is partnering with a lot of these countries, including Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia is transforming and undergoing substantial reform. We’re not alone in deciding that it’s okay to do business there. Equinox is in the middle of transforming its wellness offeringslast year you launched Optimize, a $40,000-a-year health and longevity program that involves lab testing, personal training, and nutrition and sleep coaching. Tell me about your investments in that category. It’s soon going to be a $10 trillion global category. There’s no brand that’s better positioned than Equinox to take advantage of what we refer to as high-performance living. If you listen to the true respected longevity gurus, they align with this philosophy. We talk about it from a science perspective. How do you live a high-performance lifestyle? We talk about movement, which is working out and being active. We talk about nutritionI prefer the word nourishment because nutrition is medicinal. Nourishment is just eating well and eating in a way that gives you energy and fuel for the body. Then theres recovery and sleep is at the core of that, but there’s other aspects to recovery at this point. A lot of the biohacking comes into that. Then there is community. Nobody’s written that narrative more so in the community than we have. We introduced Optimize last year through a partnership with Function Health [which does lab testing]. We take biomarkers [from blood tests] and then you are assigned a concierge who quarterbacks your program with a team of specialists, your personal trainer that is referred to as a coach, your nutrition coach, your sleep coach. Then we retest to see how the progress is going. You also have programs to support members using GLP-1s. Has their increasing prevalence changed the business? I don’t think it’s had a dramatic effect on the business, but I definitely think the needs and wants of certain members have changed. So early on when GLP-1s exploded, there was lots of press out there asking, does this mean gyms are dead? But what the world has learned through lots of science and research and the different experts is if you use that as a kickstart, but then compliment it and move towards living a different lifestyle, meaning all the stuff around being active, strength training, eating wellthose are the people that are getting the greatest results from GLP-1. We saw it as an opportunity to create a special GLP-1 training program. I think what’s definitely part of the GLP-1 effect is that people realize strength training is more important than ever before. Youve mentioned Optimize, your GLP-1 program, and Equinox Living. There’s another chain, Life Time, that has similar offerings. How do you view that competition? There’s some similarities in the programming, but the offerings are very different. They are much more of a rural to suburban play, and we’re much more of an urban play. We’re much more luxury, high touch service oriented and more boutique-oriented versus. But there is some overlap programmatically. I think that at the end of the day though, what I would say is if you want the Equinox experience, you’re not going to get it at Life Time. If they want to follow a lead on some aspects, that’s up to them, that’s flattering. I have a lot of respect for what they’ve been able to accomplish, but what we’re doing is very unique and our community loves what we do. So I don’t really view it as competition; I just view it as someone else operating in the category. And I think there’s plenty of room for both of us and others. Why did you ditch Kiehl’s for Grown Alchemist products in your locker rooms? I am going to be too transparent. I’m going to get yelled at by my team afterwards. Kiehls was a very successful relationship for a very long timesince 2009. But through all the changes of their leadership, which seemed to be very frequent, the product was, in our mind, a little stale, and they weren’t innovating around it. And there were some things in the product, which in the world of getting clean were not good ingredients, and they were reluctant to change [them]. So we said, this is not the right product for our members. Despite what they’ve said in the market, we decided to end the relationship. Interestingly, I’m going to point outand this is where I’m really in troubleis that other brand that you mentioned, that started in Minnesota they’ve picked up our sloppy seconds [and started offering Kiehls in their locker rooms]. Nobody likes sloppy seconds. Thats certainly not us. So we ended the relationship. We decided to go another direction. There’s no doubt that the other direction caused an uproar. Clean is tricky, and Grown Alchemist is clean, but it comes with issues. It doesn’t suds as much. So anyway, to make a long story short in this regard. I would just say stay tuned for more announcements in the not too distant future. Were your customers asking for clean products? There was some of that, but also we were looking to say, what’s the future here versus what’s yesterday? We felt that Kiehl’s was yesterday, and we wanted something more progressive. And so we went in direction. There’s no doubt a lot of our members love the direction we went in. And other members were likeas you saw on Redditwhat are you doing? This is ridiculous. You’re cheapening out. It’s actually more expensive. Just so we’re clear, it was not us cheapening out. [But] we have some things coming in the not too distant future. Whats your own workout routine? I’ve practiced what I preach. I’ve had the same coach for 20 years who’s been amazing. I strength train with him three times a week. Then separately, I love to sprint. I probably sprint more than I should, but I sprint probably four times a week and do cardio like six times a week. I eat really clean although I believe that pizza’s a separate food group because that is my kryptonite, that’s my weakness. I’m a big believer in the sleep side. I do all the biomarker stuff that I mentioned early on to inform this, but I make sure I get my sleep regardless of what’s happening. Which Equinox club do you visit the most? Thats like asking which is your favorite child. I have twins, and I often joke about when I’m with one or the other, I tell them you’re my favorite. And then I tell the other one, she’s my favorite. You’re going to be paying a lot of psychiatry bills down the line. Probably, so far it’s worked out okay. But I like so many clubs for different reasons. Because my offices are at Hudson Yards, I use the Equinox at Hudson Yards most frequently.
Category:
E-Commerce
Youve just finished a strenuous hike to the top of a mountain. Youre exhausted but elated. The view of the city below is gorgeous, and you want to capture the moment on camera. But its already quite dark, and youre not sure youll get a good shot. Fortunately, your phone has an AI-powered night mode that can take stunning photos even after sunset. Heres something you might not know: That night mode may have been trained on synthetic nighttime images, computer-generated scenes that were never actually photographed. As artificial intelligence researchers exhaust the supply of real data on the web and in digitized archives, they are increasingly turning to synthetic data, artificially generated examples that mimic real ones. But that creates a paradox. In science, making up data is a cardinal sin. Fake data and misinformation are already undermining trust in information online. So how can synthetic data possibly be good? Is it just a polite euphemism for deception? As a machine learning researcher, I think the answer lies in intent and transparency. Synthetic data is generally not created to manipulate results or mislead people. In fact, ethics may require AI companies to use synthetic data: Releasing real human face images, for example, can violate privacy, whereas synthetic faces can offer similar benefit with formal privacy guarantees. There are other reasons that help explain the growing use of synthetic data in training AI models. Some things are so scarce or rare that they are barely represented in real data. Rather than letting these gaps become an Achilles heel, researchers can simulate those situations instead. Another motivation is that collecting real data can be costly or even risky. Imagine collecting data for a self-driving car during storms or on unpaved roads. It is often much more efficient, and far safer, to generate such data virtually. Heres a quick take on what synthetic data is and why researchers and developers use it. How synthetic data is made Training an AI model requires large amounts of data. Like students and athletes, the more an AI is trained, the better its performance tends to be. Researchers have known for a long time that if data is in short supply, they can use a technique known as data augmentation. For example, a given image can be rotated or scaled to yield additional training data. Synthetic data is data augmentation on steroids. Instead of making small alterations to existing images, researchers create entirely new ones. But how do researchers create synthetic data? There are two main approaches. The first approach relies on rule-based or physics-based models. For example, the laws of optics can be used to simulate how a scene would appear given the positions and orientations of objects within it. The second approach uses generative AI to produce data. Modern generative models are trained on vast amounts of data and can now create remarkably realistic text, audio, images, and videos. Generative AI offers a flexible way to produce large and diverse datasets. Both approaches share a common principle: If data does not come directly from the real world, it must come from a realistic model of the world. Downsides and dangers It is also important to remember that while synthetic data can be useful, it is not a panacea. Synthetic data is only as reliable as the models of reality it comes from, and even the best scientific or generative models have weaknesses. Researchers have to be careful about potential biases and inaccuracies in the data they produce. For example, researchers may simulate the home-insurance ecosystem to help detect fraud, but those simulations could embed unfair assumptions about neighborhoods or property types. The benefits of such data must be weighed against risks to fairness and equity. Its also important to maintain a clear distinction between models and simulations on one hand and the real world on the other. Synthetic data is invaluable for training and testing AI systems, but when an AI model is deployed in the real world, its performance and safety should be proved with real, not simulated, data for both technical and ethical reasons. Future research on synthetic data in AI is likely to face many challenges. Some are ethical, some are scientific, and others are engineering problems. As synthetic data becomes more realistic, it will be more useful for training AI, but it will also be easier to misuse. For example, increasingly realistic synthetic images can be used to create convincing deepfake videos. I believe that researchers and AI companies should keep clear records to show which data is synthetic and why it was created. Clearly disclosing which parts of the training data are real and which are synthetic is a key aspect of responsibly producing AI models. Californias law, Generative artificial intelligence: training data transparency, set to take effect on January 1, 2026, requires AI developers to disclose if they used synthetic data in training their models. Researchers should also study how mistakes in simulations or models can lead to bad data. Careful work will help keep synthetic data transparent, trustworthy, and reliable. Keeping it real Most AI systems learn by finding patterns in data. Researchers can improve their ability to do this by adding synthtic data. But AI has no sense of what is real or true. The desire to stay in touch with reality and to seek truth belongs to people, not machines. Human judgment and oversight in the use of synthetic data will remain essential for the future. The next time you use a cool AI feature on your smartphone, think about whether synthetic data might have played a role. Our AIs may learn from synthetic data, but reality remains the ultimate source of our knowledge and the final judge of our creations. Ambuj Tewari is a professor of statistics at the University of Michigan. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Category:
E-Commerce
Michelle had barely knotted her apron strings before the day turned ugly. When I told her I could only serve regular coffeenot the waffle-flavored one she wantedshe threw the boiling-hot pot at me, she tells Fast Company, recounting one violent encounter with a customer. Working at a popular all-day breakfast chain, Michelle has learned that customer service often means surviving other peoples rage: Ive been cussed out, had hot food thrown on meeven dodged a plate thrown at my head, she says. Lately, the sexual comments from male customers have gotten worse. (Workers in this story have been given pseudonyms to protect them from retaliation.) Still, she shows up, because she hopes to save enough to launch her own business soon. Once upon a time, the customer is king was a rallying cry for better service. Today, its a management mantra gone feral. What began as good business sense, touted by historic retail magnates like Marshall Field and Harry Selfridge, has curdled into a corporate servitude that treats employees as expendable shock absorbers for awful behavior and diva demands. With the holiday rush looming, customer-facing workers in cafés, call centers and car garages are bracing themselves to smile through every clients tantrumno matter how absurd. Rampant hostilityand its getting worse At Michelles workplace, the patron always comes first, while the safety of staff barely makes the list. Even after several viral videos of incidents at the chains restaurants, she says her complaints rarely go anywhere. One of her managers will step in if he sees something on the floor thats out of line, but others just ask what she did to provoke it. It makes me angry, yet I feel I just have to take it, she says. Its an epidemic. That dynamic is baked into North American service culture. The customer is king mantra has become a free pass for people to act however they want, with impunity, says Gordon Sayre, a professor at Emlyon Business School in Lyon, France, who has been studying its impact on employees. It breeds entitlementand that entitlement gets abused, leaving workers with almost no room to push back.The mantra dictates that service staff stay deferentialcareful about their every word and gesturewhile clients hold the upper hand. With some workers getting all of their take-home pay from tips and gratuity, customers can quite literally decide how much an employee earns. And according to Sayres research, that mix of financial power and enforced politeness makes sexual harassment at on the job more likely. The data mirrors reality. In a 2025 survey of 21,000 US frontline workers in healthcare, food service, education, retail, transportation, more than half (53%) said theyd recently faced verbally abusive, threatening or unruly customers. There’s also been a meaningful uptick in customers acting out. According to Arizona State Universitys annual National Customer Rage survey, 43% admit to having raised their voice to show displeasure, up from 35% in 2015. And since 2020, the percentage of customers seeking revenge for their hassles has tripled. Such encounters take a toll: employees on the receiving end are twice as likely to report that their jobs are damaging their physical health, and nearly twice as likely to feel unsafe at work, according to analytics platform Perceptyx. Management didnt back my coworker Madison has been a server for more than a decade, bouncing between casual spots and fine dining rooms. These days, shes at a former Michelin-starred restaurant in New York, and shes long since accepted the industrys devotion to customer is always right. She sees it play out nightly, usually when someone insists a dish isnt cooked properly, or worse, admits they just dont like it. Theres a specific type of persnickety person who gets drunk on the power of being rude and demanding, she tells Fast Company. Once I spot a table with that vibe, I know Im in for a long night. The problem is, the mentality rewards bad behavior. Recently, a diner claimed hed only had one beerwhen it was clearly two. Management didnt back my coworker, and the guy was charged for just one, which ultimately comes out of our tip pool, says Madison. He might have left with a bad taste, but he still got what he wanted. Most hospitality staff Fast Company spoke with said the same thing: comping drinks, desserts, and even entire checks has become routine when someone complains. That generosity, however, comes at a time when restaurants and bars can least afford it. Across the US, the industry is being squeezed from both sidessoaring labor and ingredient costs on one end, and cautious consumer spending on the other. Growth in 2025 has been even slower than during the pandemic lockdown years. So why are so many establishments still giving freebies to difficult customers? Because in the age of online reviews, every unhappy diner is a one-person marketing department, ready to dish out brutal takedowns. A single post can tank a spots reputation, and naming individual staff is common practice. To avoid bad publicity, businesses are trading profit for peace, and making sacrifices to get those all-important five-star ratings. Even a middling three-star review, which most customers equate to a good or average experience, can obliterate visibility on platforms like Yelp or Google.For individual frontline employees, those digital judgments hit harder. A dip in ratings can mean being moved to a slower section or losing a lucrative shift. And in the platform gig economy, where algorithmic rankings rule, a single bad review can mean less work, or none at all. Danielle, a salon owner in Washington, remembers when an unhappy client not only left a bad review, but recruited 200 others to do the same. Ive no idea how she found so many people, but it was traumatizing watching one-star reviews just flood in, she says. Danielle has contacted Google and Yelp in the past, but they refuse to remove reviews. Even on online platforms stuffed with fake and fraudulent bot reviews, the customer is always right, right? Rest assured, well be talking about you behind your back The real problem with the beloved slogan isnt the complaints or stingy tips. Its the emotional contortion required to stay polite while being treated like a punching bag. Rose Hackman, author of Emotional Labor: The Invisible Work Shaping Our Lives and How to Claim Our Power, interviewed service workers across the industries for her boo and found a resounding answer: what counts isnt the service, its the smile. Emotional labor is highly devalued, feminized and rendered invisible, despite it being one of the most central forms of work in our economy, says Hackman. We need to value it more.Of course, that responsibility sits not just with consumers, but with employers too. Until the culture actually changes, employees cope the best they can. Avery, a server in an upmarket seafood restaurant in Philadelphia, has gotten better at protecting herself with age. I used to fold like a beach chair to their needs and demands, but Im less willing now, she explains. Outside of this job, Im a performer, and there are similarities there: I put on a mask, act out a show, then the lights come up, I clock out, and I get to be someone else. Sadly, no coping strategy is perfect. Closing yourself off and faking an emotionalso known as surface actingcan look professional, but it impacts your mood, explains Sayre. Trying to fix the situation or reframe the customers behavior can protect your emotional health, but hurts performance. Instead, venting with trusted coworkers acts as a vital pressure valvea place to express real emotions and recover from the constant stress. Jesse, a New York bartender, is amazed by the rancid behavior he sees on the daily, but the camaraderie with his team keeps him sane. If you walk in and make my life harder, talking to me in a way you would never speak to a friend or your mother; babe, youve decided what our relationship is gonna be, he says. Rest assured, well be talking about you behind your back, laughing and joking about how youre dressed.With customer is king still reigning, America desperately needs a reminder about the inherent social contract of emotional labora contract that only works if respect flows both ways. Without it, the whole system falls apart, leaving behind burnt-out staff and sour customers. As Jesse says: Youre a guest in my home, so I’m gonna take care of you. All you have to do is enjoy your night, and pay me for the work I do.
Category:
E-Commerce
Tech giants are making grand promises for the AI age. The technology, we are told, might discover a new generation of medical interventions, and possibly answer some of the most difficult questions facing physics and mathematics. Large language models could soon rival human intellectual abilities, they claim, and artificial superintelligence might even best us. This is exciting, but also scary, they say, since the rise of AGI, or artificial general intelligence, could pose an uncontrollable threat to the human species. U.S. government officials working with AI, including those charged with both implementing and regulating the tech in the government, are taking a different tack. They admit that the government is still falling behind the private sector in implementing LLM tech, and there’s a reason for agencies to speed up adoption. Still, many question the hyperbolic terminology used by AI companies to promote the technology. And they warn that the biggest dangers presented by AI are not those associated with AGI that might rival human abilities, but other concerns, including unreliability and the risk that LLMs are eventually used to undercut democratic values and civil rights. Fast Company spoke with seven people whove worked at the intersection of government and technology on the hype behind AIand what excites and worries them about the technology. Heres what they said. Charles Sun, former federal IT official Sun, a former employee at the Department of Homeland Security, believes AI is, yes, overhypedespecially, he says, when people claim that AI is bigger than the internet. He describes the technology simply as large-scale pattern recognition powered by statistical modeling, noting AIs current wave is impressive but not miraculous. Sun argues that the tech is an accelerator of human cognition, not a replacement for it. I prefer to say that AI will out-process us, not outthink us. Systems can already surpass human capacity in data scale and speed, but intelligence is not a linear metric. We created the algorithms, and we define the rules of their operation. AI in government should be treated as a critical-infrastructure component, not a novelty, he continues. The danger isnt that AI becomes ‘too intelligent,’ but that it becomes too influential without accountability. The real threat is unexamined adoption, not runaway intelligence. Former White House AI official I was worried at the beginning of this . . . when we decided that instead of focusing on mundane everyday use cases for workers, we decided at a national security front that we need to wholesale replace much of our critical infrastructure to support and be used by AI, says the person, who spoke on background. That creates a massive single point of failure for us that depends largely on compute and data centers never failing, and models being impervious to attacksneither of which I don’t think anyone, no matter how technical they are or not, would place their faith in. The former official says theyre not worried about AGI, at least for now: Next token prediction is not nearly enough for us to model complex behaviors and pattern recognition that we would qualify as general intelligence. David Nesting, former White House AI and cybersecurity adviser AI is fantastic at getting insights out of large amounts of data. Those who have AI will be better capable of using data to make better decisions, and to do so in seconds rather than days or weeks. Theres so much data about us out there that hasnt really hurt us because nobodys ever really had the tools to exploit it all, but thats changing quickly, Nesting says. Im worried about the government turning AI against its own people, and Im worried about AI being used to deprive people of their rights in ways that they cant easily understand or appeal. Nesting adds: Im also worried about the government setting requirements for AI models intended to eliminate ‘bias,’ but without a clear definition of what ‘bias’ means. Instead, we get AI models biased toward some ‘official’ ideological viewpoint. Weve already seen this in China: Ask DeepSeek about Tiananmen Square. Will American AI models be expected to maintain an official viewpoint on the January 6th riots? I think were going to be arguing about what AGI means long after its effectively here, he continues. Computers have been doing certain tasks better than people for nearly a century. AI is just expanding that set of tasks more quickly. I think the more alarming milestone will be the point at which AI can be exploited by people to increase their own power and harm others. You dont need AGI for that, and in some ways were already there, Nesting says. Americans today are increasingly and unknowingly interacting online with fake accounts run by AI that are indistinguishable from real peopleeven whole communities of peopleconfirming every fear and anxiety they have, and validating their outrage and hatred. Abigail Haddad, former member of the AI Corps at DHS The biggest problem currently, Haddad argues, is that AI is actually being underused in government. An immense amount of work went into making these tools available inside of federal agencies, she notes, but whats available in the government is still behind whats available commercially. There are concerns about LLMs training on data, but those tools are operating on cloud systems that follow federal cybersecurity standards. People who care about public services and state capacity should be irate at how much is still happening manually and in Excel, she says. Tony Arcadi, former chief information officer of the Treasury Department Computers are already smarter than us. It’s a very nebulous term. What does that really consist of? At least my computer is smarter than me when it comes to complex mathematical calculations, Arcadi says. The sudden emergence of AGI or the singularity, there’s this thing called Rokos basilisk, where the AI will go back in time andI don’t remember the exact thingbut kill people who interfered with this development. I don’t really go for all of that. He adds: The big challenge that I see leveraging AI in government is less around, if you will, the fear factor of the AI gone rogue, but more around the resiliency, reliability, and dependability of AI, which, today, is not great. Eric Hysen, former chief information officer at DHS When asked a few months ago about whether AI might become so powerful that the process of governing might be offloaded to software, Hysen shared the following: I think there is something fundamentally human that Americans expect about their government. . . . Government decision-making, at some level, is fundamentally different than the way private companies make decisions, even if they are of very similar complexity. Some decisions, he added, “we’re always going to want to be fundamentally made by a human being, even if i’s AI-assisted in a lot of ways. It’s going to look more long term like heavy use of AI that will still ultimately feed for a lot of key things to human decision makers. Arati Prabhakar, former science and technology adviser to President Biden Prabhakar, who led the Office of Science and Technology Policy under President Joe Biden, is concerned that the conversation about AGI is being used to influence policy around the technology more broadly. Shes also skeptical that the technology is as powerful as people foretell. I really feel like Im in a freshman dorm room at 2 in the morning when I start hearing those conversations, she says. Your brain is using 20 or 25 watts to do all the things that it does. That includes all kinds of things that are way beyond LLMs. [Its] about 25 watts compared to the mega data centers that it takes to train and then to use AI models. Thats just one hint that we are so far from anything approximating human intelligence, she argues. “Most troubling is it puts the focus on the technology rather than the human choices that are being made in companies by policymakers about what to build, where to use it, and what kind of guardrails really will make it effective.” This story was supported by the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism.
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