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Last year was full of talk about tariffs. Are they coming up or going down? On which products and countries? How could businesses handle all the uncertainty? But while there was a lot of discussion of these fees, paid on imported goods and raw materials, there wasnt actually that much evidence of their price impact at stores. According to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, thats about to change. Tariffs had a modest impact on prices in 2025 Tariffs are a tax on businesses, which means youd expect that if tariffs go up, so do prices. But the effect of President Trumps ever-changing but always aggressive tariff policies didnt cause the huge price hikes and widespread economic damage many feared in 2025. Economists offer several likely explanations. One is all the exceptions and carve-outs the government made after announcing the tariffs. What Trump threatens and what ends up being charged are often very different. The actual tariffs are much lower than what were announced, and that is one of the reasons why the effects have not been as big as feared, Harvard economist Gita Gopinath told The New York Times. Another big reason is timing. Trump hasnt been shy about his love of tariffs. That means many people got ahead of the new taxes by stockpiling goods before they came into effect. Consumers and business time very-short-run purchases to try to minimize tariffs, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University. This can reduce the amount of imports of higher-tariffed goods and countries for a time. But Jassy says this tactic to keep prices down may have reached its expiration date. Amazons CEO warns of big pricing changes to come Jassy spoke to CNBCs Becky Quick at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and said that so far, Amazon has seen some of the tariffs creep into some of the prices, some of the items. He continued: And you see some sellers are deciding that theyre passing on those higher costs to consumers in the form of higher prices, some are deciding that theyll absorb it to drive demand, and some are doing something in between. But the days of these modest impacts may soon be over. I think youre starting to see more of that impact, he continued. Many sellers simply dont have much of a choice but to pass on the cost of tariffs. At a certain pointbecause retail is, as you know, a mid-single digit operating margin businessif peoples costs go up by 10%, there arent a lot of places to absorb it, the Amazon CEO said. You dont have endless options. No white knight is riding to consumers rescue No matter what you might hear coming out of the White House, realistically, those options do not somehow magically include getting foreign suppliers to shoulder the cost of tariffs. A new study by the Kiel Institute in Germany found that a whopping 96% of the costs of tariffs are passed on to U.S. importers and consumers. Nor can smaller businesses that are already squeezed keep shielding consumers indefinitely. When large retailers raised prices, smaller firms said, were going to try to not raise prices, giving them a competitive edge, Kyle Peacock, founder of Peacock Tariff Consulting, explained to Harvards Institute for Business in Global Society. But, he continued, they can only absorb it for so long. Jassys comments suggest that the breaking point for many sellers is fast approaching. The Amazon CEO is far from the only business luminary issuing such warnings. On a recent investor call, Nike cautioned tariffs could add about $1 billion in costs during its 2026 fiscal year. Mattel warned it may need to raise prices on toys, while Walmart likewise said it may be forced into selective price increases on imported goods. Add to these existing pressures Trumps latest threats to slap further tariffs on European countries if they fail to go along with his weird neo-colonialist demand that they hand over Greenland, and the picture looks worrying. Economists fret Amazons CEO is right The Peterson Institute for International Economics worries all this could spell higherrather than lowerinflation this year. The pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has been modest to date, suggesting U.S. importers have been absorbing the bulk of the tariff changes. That will change in the first half of 2026, Lazard CEO Peter Orszag and PIIE president Adam Posen predicted. The many reasons for the lagged pass-through include businesses pricing based on when their inventories arrived (and have since run out) and concerns around being seen as raising prices too rapidly (so they are instead gradually increasing them). This wont last, they continued. Of course, who knows what Trump might do in the end. His track record has, to put it mildly, been inconsistent and changeable. But if he doesnt chicken out and change course, many economists clearly fear Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is right. Hard-pressed U.S. consumers are hopin life gets more affordable in 2026. Theyre likely to face the opposite. Jessica Stillman This article originally appeared on Fast Companys sister website, Inc.com. Inc. is the voice of the American entrepreneur. We inspire, inform, and document the most fascinating people in business: the risk-takers, the innovators, and the ultra-driven go-getters that represent the most dynamic force in the American economy.
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E-Commerce
A year ago at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance accused Europe of using ugly, Soviet-era words like misinformation and disinformation to justify restricting dissent, and warned that its speech rules posed a greater threat to democracy than Russia or China. Now the Trump administration is acting on that belief. Earlier this month, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed this years conference (in a far more conciliatory tone), the U.S. government launched Freedom.gov. For now its just a landing page, but it is reportedly planned as a way for Europeans to duck content bans, including restrictions on hate speech and terrorist propaganda. Officials have discussed incorporating a built-in virtual private network (VPN) function that would make users internet traffic appear to originate in the U.S., effectively routing around European content restrictions. The project is overseen by Sarah Rogers, under secretary for public diplomacy; Edward Coristine, a former member of Elon Musks Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is reportedly working on the sites design. The backdrop is escalating tension over tech regulation. European and U.K. authorities have tightened enforcement on social media platforms, recently opening investigations into X and its AI chatbot Grok over alleged rule-breaking and harassment. These moves have angered Trump administration officials, who see them as attempts to criminalize American companies and suppress speech. Proponents might argue that it is merely the modern-day version of Radio Free Europe, which broadcast unfiltered news across the Iron Curtain, says Anupam Chander, an expert on global tech regulation at Georgetown Law. Thats likely how the Trump administration sees it: Officials have framed Freedom.gov as a champion of digital freedom and emphasized the State Departments long-standing support for the proliferation of privacy and censorship-circumvention technologies like VPNs.” But others see it as interference. Democratic countries are likely to see the American portal as improper interference with domestic laws, says Chander, who believes countries might respond to the American freedom portal by ordering their internet providers to block it. Paul Bernal, a professor of information technology law at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England, expects the EU would simply block the site. Under laws like the Digital Services Act, Europe can bar platforms that attempt to evade its rules. I can’t see how the Americans are going to stop them effectively blocking access, he says. Web-blocking capabilities exist. We do it for child sex abuse material. We do it for copyright. The result could become a kind of cat-and-mouse thing where the U.S. puts something up the EU blocks, then the U.S. puts it up somewhere else, and so on. Bernal also rejects the administrations framing. There is no question to anyone who knows about free speech that Donald Trumps regime are very much anti-free speech, he says. Theyre closing down their enemies wherever they can, theyre taking over platforms like TikTok and TV stations like CBS in order to ensure they toe the line over political things. In his view, the dispute is fundamentally about geopolitics rather than about freedom of speechand about Europe trying to limit the influence of American tech companies on its politics.
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E-Commerce
Roger Sauerhaft thought he had done everything right. The 38-year-old PR consultant had been running his solo practice in New York since 2021, paying $1,189 a month for what seemed like good health insurance through his states individual marketplace. In late 2023, he developed a medical issue that required a specialist, and started calling doctors’ officesonly to be turned away again and again. The closest in-network specialist was an hour away in Long Island. One medical administrator was honest with him: His plan’s network was too restrictive. He needed broader coveragebut that wasn’t available to him. “When you’re a solopreneur, your health is your business,” Sauerhaft says. “When you have a problem, you need to get it fixed really quickly. That requires access.” Approximately 16.5 million Americans were self-employed as of January 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. MBO Partners 2025 annual survey puts the number at 72.9 million, counting not just full-time self-employed workers but also part-time and occasional independent earners. For solopreneurs and small-business owners across the U.S., individual marketplace plans are predominantly HMOs, or health maintenance organizations, which have narrow networks and require referrals to see specialists. PPOs, or preferred provider organizations with broader access, are available on marketplaces in only a handful of states or through employer-sponsored plans. Most solopreneurs across the U.S. get their insurance from Affordable Care Act marketplaces. Premiums, deductibles, and out-of-pocket costs can eat up a significant portion of their income, and many plans restrict access to care through narrow provider networks. This gap leaves many paying high prices for plans that dont meet their needs, forcing them to choose between their health and their businessor find creative work-arounds to access better coverage. Making it work For Sauerhaft, HMOs were the only plans available on his states ACA marketplace, complicating his search for a nearby specialist. He looked at options from the Freelancers Union, but couldnt find anything better and began questioning the future viability of his business. I thought about folding the business at that point, he says. Instead, he expedited his wedding by a few months so he could join his fiancées employer PPO plan. He had gone independent to chart his own path, but the system had basically taken it away from me, he says. Liang Zhao, 38, was able to set up her own independent PR practice in 2019, in part because she had access to health coverage through her husbands employer. But in September 2025, her husband was laid off. Their premiums for a family of three jumped from around $700 to $3,000 per month under COBRA (the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, a federal law that ensures individuals and their families are able to maintain access to healthcare coverage during certain life events, such as job loss). “We’re literally one layoff away from an entire family losing coverage,” Zhao says. Historically, this country has set up a system where health insurance has been distributed through employers, so the whole system benefits larger employers who are able to negotiate better rates for their employees. Solopreneurs who can’t rely on a spouse’s coverage have to get more creative. For Bob Christie, an independent consultant based in New York who travels across the country for his work, having nationwide coverage is a prioritybut the state marketplace offers plans that work only in New York, or other states in an emergency. A broker connected Christie with Iron Health Benefits Partners, a Nebraska-based company that works with independent contractors. He technically became their employeefilling out a monthly questionnaire for token paywhich gave him access to their Blue Cross Blue Shield of Nebraska group plan with nationwide PPO coverage. His premium: $1,321 a month. Barriers to growth When it’s time to expand, health insurance can be a formidable obstacle. Alvin Carlos, 34, a financial planner in Washington, D.C., built his solo practice into a five-person firm and knew he needed to offer coverage to attract and retain talent. But when he explored group plans for his five employees across five states, a broker’s quote came to $8,010 a monthmore expensive than individual coverage. His solution was to turn to a Health Reimbursement Arrangement, or HRA. Carlos reimburses employees $300 to $1,000 monthly depending on whether they’re single or have a family, covering premiums, copays, and deductibles. HRAs are a tax-advantaged benefit that gives employees flexibility to choose their own plans. Hes increased the reimbursement once in 2026 due to premium spikes. “Our health insurance system is broken,” Carlos says. “It is so expensive and it is so complicated.” Navigating the rules Sole proprietors and companies with few employees have to wade through a patchwork of state-specific rules, shifting eligibility standards, and premiums that keep going up. Theyre in a very precarious position right now, says Jesse McDonald, a health insurance broker based in Milford, Connecticut. U.S. healthcare costs keep escalating, so the insurance that’s covering it gradually escalates. Its been a problem thats been getting worse and worse. McDonald said enhanced premium tax credits during the pandemic briefly eased the burden for many independent workers, lowering monthly premiums and expanding eligibility. But those enhanced subsidies expired at the end of 2025. Jennifer Chumbley Hogue, a Dallas-based health insurance broker, says 22% of her clients qualified for subsidies in 2025. Of those clients, about half went without coverage in 2026 after losing that support. Still, she cautions solopreneurs not to assume theyre out of options, recommending they consult brokers with extensive knowledge of their local market and rules. Fixing the access gap For Sauerhaft, the barrier isnt cost but breadth of coverage. “Even if I had to pay $2,000 a month for a PPO, I would have done it,” he says. “It wasn’t about affordabilityit was about getting access.” He believes his states marketplace could better serve solopreneurs if it offered more middle-ground options between restrictive HMOs and PPOsor allowed people to pay more for greater provider choice. Sauerhaft, whose own coverage crisis nearly derailed his business, sees the pain as a catalyst for change. The more people who get caught in this broken system, the more awareness there will be, and hopefully pressure to fix it, he says. I am heartened by the fact that things are already much better today than they were 20 years ago, but progress can be slow.
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E-Commerce
At a park near Canberra, Australia, a series of small white pyramid-shaped boxes are part of a new experiment: Can frog saunas help bring back an endangered species? The green and golden bell frogan iconic Australian amphibian with a call that sounds like a cross between a power tool and a quacking duckis already extinct in the area. Like other frog species around the world, it was a victim of a deadly fungus called chytrid that has been killing amphibians for decades. But scientists are reintroducing the vibrant frog with the hope that a design intervention can help it survive. [Photo: courtesy Simon Clulow/University of Canberra] The sauna is a simple design, with bricks inside a plastic enclosure that heats up in the sun. The bell frog loves sitting in the heatand conveniently the high temperatures kill the fungus. The technology we’re using is extremely low tech, said Simon Clulow, a conservation ecology professor at the University of Canberra leading the research. Thats good because everything we do in science and conservation, ideally, we want to be accessible, affordable, and scalable. [Photo: Tyler Cherry/University of Canberra] A new intervention backed by years of research Clulow started thinking about the idea as a doctoral student, when he noticed that frogs in a university enclosure liked to sit in the holes inside bricks, probably because they could hide away and feel warmer. At the same time, he knew that the chytrid fungus was most dangerous when frogs got cold. That led to this idea: Could you create essentially pockets of disease refuge by creating little hot spots in the environment? he said. [Photo: Tyler Cherry/University of Canberra] Along with other researchers, he initially tested bricks that were painted black, but they didn’t get quite warm enough, so the small plastic greenhouse was added to help keep the bricks hotter. Research has shown that this type of environment makes a difference. “We know for sure if we hold the frogs in a temperature-controlled cabinet at those sorts of temperatures for even just a couple of days, it usually leads to complete clearance [of the fungus],” Clulow said. “But even just short-term spikes clearly have beneficial effects.” The green and golden bell frog used to be common on Australias eastern seaboard. It was widespread in every farm, in everyones ponds, and it was just one of those frogs probably nobody took much notice of because it was absolutely everywhere, Clulow said. Universities often went out to collect the frogs for use in biology classes. Then, in the 1980s, the fungus devastated the population, along with other species of frogs. Only a few isolated pockets of the green and golden bell frogs were left on the coast. [Photo: Tyler Cherry/University of Canberra] The places where the frogs survived were a little warmer in the winter, with water that was slightly more saline. That led to the second part of the intervention in the new studytiny ponds with slightly saltier water, which research has shown also kills the fungus without harming the frogs. (The salinity is only about two or three parts per thousand, not enough to taste salty if you drank the water.) The scientists call the small saline ponds spas, and they’re set up next to the saunas. The new experiment is the largest of its kind. The research team installed 15 experimental wetlands sprawling over hundreds of square miles in Australias Capital Territory, with some areas acting as a control to see how well the interventions work. Theyve released around 450 frogs so far this year; the first generation was raised in captivity and given the extra boost of a vaccine against chytrid. The next generation, born in the wild, will rely on the saunas and spas to treat the fungus. [Photo: Tyler Cherry/University of Canberra] The real-world test When we talked, Clulow had been up until 3 a.m. the previous night tracking the newly released frogs. They’re not hard to spot. “They have a really fantastic, obvious call, a little bit like a motorbike revving up,” he said, demonstrating the sound. The frogs have microchips so they can be tracked. So far, roughly a month after the first frogs were released, the population is thriving. [Photo: Tyler Cherry/University of Canberra] The first big test for the project will be in the upcoming Australian winter (during the North American summer), and then the following winter when the new generation of frogs will need to survive. The outside temperature can dip to negative 5 degrees Celsius, or 23 degrees Fahrenheit. Inside the tiny saunas, it can stay a toasty 77 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit. The research team still needs to prove that the interventions work as well in the wild as they did in the lab, but the solution could potentially be replicated around the world. At least 90 species of frogs have gone extinct because of the fungus; hundreds of others are at risk.
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E-Commerce
A new word has entered the business headline writers lexicon over the last month: the SaaSpocalypse. Between mid-January and mid-February 2026, around a trillion dollars was wiped from the value of software stocks. The S&P North American Software Index posted its worst monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis. Individual stocks have been savaged, with even Microsoft, the ultimate tech blue chip, falling by more than 10%. The panic is real. But is it rational? The catalyst for this turmoil was a series of product launches from AI companiesmost notably Anthropics Claude Cowork tool and its subsequent upgradesdemonstrating that AI agents are now capable of handling complex knowledge work autonomously. The markets interpretation was both swift and brutal: If AI agents can do what enterprise software does, then enterprise software is finished. That narrative is clearly persuasive to those who have been busily dumping stocks. But it rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of what enterprise software is, what it does, and why replacing it isnt the straightforward proposition the market appears to believe. {"blockType":"mv-promo-block","data":{"imageDesktopUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/creator-faisalhoque.png","imageMobileUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/faisal-hoque.png","eyebrow":"","headline":"Ready to thrive at the intersection of business, technology, and humanity?","dek":"Faisal Hoques books, podcast, and his companies give leaders the frameworks and platforms to align purpose, people, process, and techturning disruption into meaningful, lasting progress.","subhed":"","description":"","ctaText":"Learn More","ctaUrl":"https:\/\/faisalhoque.com","theme":{"bg":"#02263c","text":"#ffffff","eyebrow":"#9aa2aa","subhed":"#ffffff","buttonBg":"#ffffff","buttonHoverBg":"#3b3f46","buttonText":"#000000"},"imageDesktopId":91420512,"imageMobileId":91420514,"shareable":false,"slug":""}} More Than a Tool The simple premise behind the market turmoil is that AI agents will, in the not-too-distant future, be able to perform most or all of the tasks that are currently performed by enterprise software. But this vision of the future misunderstands enterprise software at a fundamental level. Enterprise software isnt just a set of tools. It encodes the enterprise itself. Decades of business rules, process flows, governance structures, compliance requirements, data definitions, and role-based permissions are held within these systems. When a company runs on SAP, Salesforce, Microsoft, or ServiceNow products, its not simply using a suite of software that sits on top of the organization. These systems hold the organizations operating architecture in digital formthe institutional memory of how the business actually works in practice, every day, at every level. Replacing enterprise software with a fully agentic enterprise isnt just a matter of swapping one piece of technology for another. The moat around enterprise software isnt the code. Its the accumulated domain knowledge, the business logic, and the deep integration with how organizations actually operate. Three Fallacies Driving the Panic The case for wholesale replacement rests on three assumptions. Each collapses under scrutiny. The first is the change management fallacy. Putting enterprise software in place is not like installing an app; these are often multiyear organizational transformations involving workflow redesign, data migration, retraining, and deep integration across departments. Companies typically change ERP systems every 5 to 10 years, and even routine migrations require months of rigorous preparation. The notion that organizations will undertake wholesale replacement of their entire enterprise architecturenot with new software, but with an entirely different paradigmignores the reality that change management is one of the hardest things organizations can attempt. The disruption involved in even incremental software upgrades creates significant operational risk. A complete paradigm shift involves risks to the business of an entirely different order of magnitude. The second is the economic fallacy. Even if replacement were technically feasible, there is no compelling reason to believe it would be cheaper. Token-based AI pricing is expensive at the enterprise scale, and the world in which running agents across an entire organizations operations could cost less than current SaaS subscriptions is not yet the world in which we live. Token costs will fall over timewe can be sure of thatbut building a case for wholesale replacement on the assumption that they will fall far enough and fast enough to undercut the established economics of enterprise software involves stacking assumption on top of assumption. Token costs are only one part of the equation. The true cost of running agentic systems includes orchestration, integration, data pipelines, monitoring, security, auditability, and the human time required to supervise and correct outputs. The last item is the one most easily underestimated: As agents take on more autonomous and more consequential work, assurance costs will rise, not fall. And even before you reach the question of ongoing costs, the price of the transition itselfthe data migration, workflow redesign, retraining, and inevitable disruption to operationswould be enormous. The economic argument for replacement isnt just weak; at present, it barely exists. This isnt to say that its not plausible in some future world. But until we have a convincing map that leads there, its not a serious proposition. The third, and possibly the most important, is the general-purpose agent fallacy. The assumption behind the market panic is that powerful, general-purpose AI agents will take over enterprise functions wholesale. But this doesnt reflect how AI actually delivers value today, and it may not reflect how agents ever deliver value. Research consistently shows that AI works best when its targeted at specific problems with rich contextual grounding. A study conducted by the Australian government found that broad-access AI tools produced significant improvements in basic tasks like summarizing information and preparing first drafts, but that their lack of fit to users specific contexts undermined efficiency gains in more complex work. The result was a productivity paradox: Time saved through automation was consumed by checking and correcting outputs that lacked the domain-specific nuance the work required. This finding has direct implications for the SaaSpocalypse thesis. General-purpose agents deployed to replace enterprise software will face exactly the same problem. Without deep local contextthe profound domain knowledge and specific workflow logic that enterprise software encodesthey will produce generic, unreliableoutputs that require constant human correction. To work effectively at the enterprise level, agents need to be narrow, contextually rich, and tightly integrated with specific workflows. And once you start building agents that way, youre not replacing software as a service. Youre rebuilding it through an agentic lensat enormous cost and with no guarantee that the result will be better than what you already have. What Leaders Should Do None of this means the landscape isnt shifting. AI is changing how people interact with software and how organizations think about their technology investments. But the right response isnt to tear up the enterprise architecture. Its to evolve it. Rather than reacting to the panic, leaders should take three concrete steps. 1. Audit your vendors AI road maps. The strongest enterprise software providers are already integrating agentic capabilities into their platforms. If yours arent, thats a genuine concern, and it may be time to look for vendors who are. The question isnt whether to adopt AI, but whether your existing partners are doing it for you. 2. Invest in data quality and process documentation. The effectiveness of any AIwhether embedded in your software or deployed as agentsdepends on the quality of the data and the clarity of the processes it works with. This is the foundational investment, and it pays off regardless of where the technology lands. 3. Evaluate agentic approaches for genuinely new workflows. Where youre building new capabilities or addressing needs that your current software stack does not serve, purpose-built agentic solutions may be more effective and more flexible than new SaaS implementations. This is where the technologys real greatness lies. Further reading Do you really know what agent means? – Fast Company How AI is changing what it means to be the CEO – Fast Company The Trillion-Dollar Question The SaaSpocalypse makes for dramatic headlines. But the idea on which those headlines are basedthat AI agents will soon be eating the lunch of enterprise software providersis founded on a misunderstanding about what enterprise software does. Its not just a tool that performs tasks. Its the digital encoding of the organizations institutional architecture. That isnt something a general-purpose tool can easily replace. The real risk for business leaders isnt that they will be too slow to abandon their enterprise platforms. Its that they will be stampeded by market panic into undervaluing the systems and institutional knowledge they already have. AI will reshape enterprise softwarethat much is certain. But there is a meaningful difference between a technology that changes how software works and one that makes software unnecessary. That distinction matters. And for the moment at least, the market has lost sight of it. {"blockType":"mv-promo-block","data":{"imageDesktopUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/creator-faisalhoque.png","imageMobileUrl":"https:\/\/images.fastcompany.com\/image\/upload\/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit\/wp-cms-2\/2025\/10\/faisal-hoque.png","eyebrow":"","headline":"Ready to thrive at the intersection of business, technology, and humanity?","dek":"Faisal Hoques books, podcast, and his companies give leaders the frameworks and platforms to align purpose, people, process, and techturning disruption into meaningful, lasting progress.","subhed":"","description":"","ctaText":"Learn More","ctaUrl":"https:\/\/faisalhoque.com","theme":{"bg":"#02263c","text":"#ffffff","eyebrow":"#9aa2aa","subhed":"#ffffff","buttonBg":"#ffffff","buttonHoverBg":"#3b3f46","buttonText":"#000000"},"imageDesktopId":91420512,"imageMobileId":91420514,"shareable":false,"slug":""}}
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