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Just when you think youve wrapped your mind around computers that can put your dog in front of the Eiffel Tower or chatbots that act like your best friend (or lover), the AI behemoths surprise you with a fully AI-powered TikTok or the ability to virtually bring back your dead relatives. Ive worked in the AI space for 15 years. I served as an early beta tester for OpenAI in 2020, when I predicted that a little model called GPT-3 had world-changing potential. It was later released as something called ChatGPTperhaps youve heard of it? Ive also called several big AI trends correctly, including the rise of video generators and the AI Wars between Google and OpenAI. Based on my experience, here are my six AI predictions for 2026 and beyond. 1. OpenAI goes garlic In late 2025, Googles Gemini model started to gain ground on OpenAI and its GPT-5.1 system. That apparently really irked Sam Altman and the OpenAI team. Altman reportedly called a code red, directing staff to focus all their efforts on besting Google. Rumor had it they were developing a new, fully re-trained thinking model, codenamed Garlic. When OpenAI did a surprise drop of a new GPT-5.2 model in mid December, lots of people thought it might be Garlic coming to market. Based on my own testing, its not. Or at least, its not the complete model. GPT-5.2 is indeed better than the previous model. Its faster and more efficient, and makes fewer errors. Its also notably better at scientific tasks, and practical ones like coding. But now it appears there will be a second new OpenAI release, which I expect to come out in January. Thats most likely the full Garlic model. This new model, I predict, will have a new knowledge cutoff sometime in 2025, a broader context window, and much better image generation capabilities. It will also be faster and more efficient to run, especially on thinking tasks. 2. Googles Gemini continues its march toward domination Whenever it finally arrives, Garlic will enter the world with plenty of competition. Google was very slow to roll up to the generative AI table. For a company thats been working in deep learning for decades and has some of the most intelligent people in the world working for it, that felt like a big miss. Google had reportedly developed its own ChatGPT years before OpenAI, but chickened out on releasing it. In the beginning of the AI race, that allowed OpenAI to very loudly and publicly eat Googles lunch. The history of science, though, is littered with examples where early innovators werent the ones who successfully commercialized a new technology. Just ask Joseph Swan, the true inventor of the lightbulb. Youve never heard of him. But you do know Thomas Edison, who made the lightbulb a widely available technologyand did a great job promoting his invention (and himself) in the process. Historically, first-mover advantage has proven surprisingly inconsequential in the tech space. And now that Google has woken up to the importance of AI, theyre aggressively building out their Gemini model and integrating it into almost all their products, including their core search experience. Google has more data, more resources (including its own custom AI chips), more people, and a much broader reach than OpenAI. In 2026, Google will continue to throw its weight around in generative AI. Gemini will go from being an also-ran to one of the most powerful models on the market. Because it will be broadly integrated into products that normal people use on a day-to-day basis, it will immediately have an audience in the billions. The struggle now isnt for newer companies like OpenAI to create the best product. Its to create a product better than Googles. That will be very hard in 2026 and beyond. 3. Chatbots become therapy (and a bit more) Users have already realized that ChatGPT can take the place of a human therapist. In a recent poll by the Economist, 25% of people reported turning to chatbots for mental health support. As cases of AI psychosis and alleged suicides demonstrate, this can go very badly. But for people who cant afford any kind of psychological supportor simply dont have access to it in their language or countryusing chatbots as cheap therapists is incredibly appealing. Without directly saying so, OpenAI has implied that theyre moving ChatGPT further into this space, with improvements to how the bot handles sensitive medical and mental health conversations. This could be a huge boon for mental health. Many people appear more comfortable discussing their problems with an unthinking bot than with a human. The fact that a session with ChatGPT doesnt cost $300 per hour is also a big plus! ChatGPTs capabilities will expand in other ways, too. A rumored adult mode will arrive in 2026, allowing ChatGPT to write risqué material. Prepare yourself for a wave of frenzied op-eds about how people are turning to these newly salacious for relationships instead of fellow humans. 4. AI-generated videos take overand not just on Sora OpenAIs AI-powered Sora video generator is incredibly powerful, and their Sora-based social network is incredibly fun to us. In 2026 and beyond, expect to see the reach and importance of AI-generated vertical video accelerate. Vertical video is the perfect format for AI. The clips tend to be short, which caters to AIs ability to generate about 10 seconds of reliable video before things go off the rails. They also tend to be grabby and compelling. Again, AI excels at making videos of things like people falling into wedding cakes or having heated arguments with their roommates. In 2026, expect the reach of AI-powered social networks like Sora to grow dramatically. The biggest growth, though, will come from these videos migrating off the Sora platform and onto other social media. Already, my Facebook Reels feed is dominated by clearly AI-generated videos of things like a cat saving her kittens from a flood or grandmothers fighting grizzly bears. In 2026, AI videos wont stay put. Theyll travel into every vertical video space on the webfrom TikTok to Nextdoorfurther blurring the lines between whats real and whats imagined. 5. Electricity becomes the limiting factor I have friends who build data centers for a living. They tell me the only thing stopping them from building more data centers is finding enough electrical power to keep up with AIs demands. Some companies are reportedly even going nuclear, building or recommissioning fully functional reactors to power their electricity-hungry AI chips. The need for more electrical power for AI will start to limit the techs growth in 2026. It will also rub up against societys other needs. In 2026, I expect a populist backlash against the fact that data centers voracious energy demands are raising electricity rates for everyday people. Ultimately, the deficiencies of todays gridstrained as it is by the rise of AIwill drive innovative, new models that are good for everybody. Cheap solar power at midday may be redirected toward data centers, for example, or stored in giant batteries to keep servers running overnight. This demand will create a huge market for green technologies, ultimately benefiting the planet and everyone on it. 6. AI invades the real world No, the robot uprising isnt here just yet. But AI is increasingly invading the real world. Self-driving cars were once a novelty. In 2026, usage will explode, with Zoox, Waymo and their competitorsincluding entrants from Chinaserving more cities. The rise of self-driving vehicles and other physical manifestations of AI technology will surprise people. Youll blink, and one day it will feel like nearly every car on the road is self-drivingas it currently does in my home city of San Francisco. I expect to see other experiments with physical AI in 2026, from robot baristas to caregiving machines, and plenty of military AI tech, too. Again, though, the self-driving car blitz coming in 2026 will be the most profound and surprising (to everyday people, anyway) implementation of the technology. It will arrive far sooner than you think. A pat on the back So thats what I anticipate for the year ahead. As someone whos been in the AI space for a long time, Ive missed some things. But I also wrote, two years before ChatGPT, that OpenAI and its founders could easily make billions (and likely challenge the advertising and content recommendation engines of rivals like Google) by throwing caution to the wind and throwing open the doors to GPT-3 to all comers. I still pat myself on the back for that one. How will my 2026 predictions shape up? Ask me in a year!
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E-Commerce
The author of The Art of the Deal always likes to claim hes a big winner when it comes to any business arrangement he makes. And in some ways, Donald Trump appears to have won big by finalizing a deal that will see Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX take part-ownership of a new joint venture designed to oversee operations in the United States of TikTok, the wildly popular social video appl. But dig into the details and youll see that what Trumps White House is keen to present as a big win for national security looks more like a standard business dealor more cynically, a shakedown. Concerns around TikTok first bubbled up at the end of Trumps first term, when the 45th president, running unsuccessfully for re-election in 2020, presented the app, owned by the Chinese tech champion ByteDance, as a national-security concern. On both sides of the aisle, China hawks worry that TikToks algorithm could be used to catalyze opposition to the American way of life, and indoctrinate U.S. teens into Chinese ways of thinkingor nudge public opinion to be more favorable to the Chinese regime. Trump tried unsuccessfully to ban the app outright from the United States, a gambit that didnt stand up in court. He has continued to try and alter its ownership even as he appears to have changed tack about whether the platform ought to be banned outright. Trump has claimed that TikToks purported Chinese links still gave him pause, but that he was willing to allow the app to continue existing in the U.S. provided that it was brought under American control. With this finalized deal, even thats not guaranteedwhich could suggest this is little more than a shakedown and carve-out to ensure the U.S. capitalizes on the only non-American social network that has managed to gain a mass global foothold in the last 20 years. The leaked details of this deal seem to imply that the public debate and concerns were a red herring, says Catalina Goanta, associate professor in private law and technology at Utrecht University. The U.S. just wanted in on a profitable business model that has been growing faster and with more potential than any of its competitors, she argues. The terms of the agreement suggest that the joint venture will own between 45%and 50% of the new U.S.-Tiktok entity (reports differ on the precise percentages involved). Around one-third of the entity will be owned by ByteDances current investors, with the remainderan estimated 20% or sostill under ByteDances control. The deal is due to close by January 22. Others are equally uncertain that the deal matches up to what Trump claimed was the core concern. Will the sale enrich the new investors or protect American interests? asks Hussein Kanji, founder of Hoxton Ventures. Lets see if the algorithm changes in the new leadership to support a particular political viewpoint. So far, theres no suggestion that the apps algorithm will change in any way, beyond being fed U.S. user data to ensure the content is free from outside manipulation, said an internal memo sent by TikTok CEO Shou Chew to staff last week. That isnt significantly different from what already happens, except it draws slightly stronger fences around U.S-only users. The terms of the deal are believed to adopt the current TikTok algorithm, while the storage of user data within the United States will remain within the country and overseen by a local partner. In this case, that partner will be Oracle, under terms similar to those TikTok has already instigated elsewhere voluntarily, including in Europe (U.K. cybersecurity firm NCC Group oversees data access) where TikTok has built dedicated data centers for local users. ByteDance will reportedly still have control of the apps ecommerce, advertising, and marketing arms, all of which are core components of the business. In short, basically nothing has changed, except several U.S. firms get a part of the new companyand presumably, a share of its income. Its no surprise, then, that China has nodded the deal through: Little changes for them, except for homegrown champion ByteDance losing a proportion of its income from the app. Chinese state media sees this deal as a win for China, and it emphasized retaining global connectivity, which can also affect what kind of content is seen from outside of the U.S., says Goanta. Of course, the app could still change. It certainly would be easier to do so when U.S. companies control the data, the algorithm, and any decisions are overseen by a U.S. board. But itd be highly unusualsome might say self-defeatingfor TikTok in the United States to try and diverge from what made its global product successful. Instead, it looks like a classic Trump deal: Plenty of sound and fury, and a whole lot of hyperbole to justify very few changes that actually address the underlying issue that caused the brouhaha in the first place. The deal allows the president to portray action on a politically potent issue while avoiding a total ban that could alienate younger voters or provoke corporate backlash. For China, the arrangement shows it can be flexible without surrendering, allowing ByteDance to preserve that global reach for its flagship app. But as often happens under Trumps America First policy, American entities get a cut of the dealwhether theyre deserving of it or not.
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E-Commerce
As many families are preparing to gather for the holidays, influenza (flu) cases are spiking across the country. According to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), positive test results have reached the highest levels seen so far this season. The most frequently reported influenza virus this season is the influenza A H3N2 virus. Last week, Fast Company reported on a new mutated strain of influenza A H3N2, known as the subclade K flu variant, which emerged after multiple mutations. Heres what you need to know. Recent data shows positive cases are spiking According to CDC data for the week ending December 13, 14.8% of samples tested positive for influenza. This is the highest level of positive cases so far this season. A total of 927 influenza viruses were reported by public health laboratories. Of those, 911 were influenza A and 16 were influenza B. Of the 706 influenza A viruses that were subtyped, 89.9% were influenza A H3N2. For the week ending December 13, states with the highest flu activity include: Colorado Louisiana New Jersey New York Rhode Island Tracking data from the New York State Department of Health shows cases at their highest for the season, with over 5,300 hospitalizations so far. In New York City, flu cases have spiked significantly. [Screenshot: via CDC] Holiday season means data will lag this week Unfortunately, the CDC wont provide further updates on the spread of the virus until the very end of the year. Data reporting will be delayed due to the Christmas holiday. According to the CDC, data for the week ending December 20 will be posted on December 30. What are symptoms of the flu? Typical symptoms of the flu vary from mild to severe. The CDC says these are the main symptoms to watch out for: fever or feeling feverish/chills cough sore throat runny or stuffy nose muscle or body aches headaches fatigue (tiredness) possible vomiting and diarrhea (more common in children than adults) The agency notes that not everyone with the flu gets a fever. Total flu illnesses reach 4.6 million nationwide So far this season, the CDC estimates that at least 4.6 million flu illnesses have occurred. The agency estimates that there have been 49,000 hospitalizations and 1,900 deaths from the flu. If youre feeling sick this holiday season, you should limit contact with others. The CDC recommends that everyone 6 months of age and older who has not yet been vaccinated this season receive an annual influenza vaccine. Approximately 130 million doses of the influenza vaccine have been distributed in the U.S. this season.
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E-Commerce
SoftBank Group is racing to close a $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by year-end through an array of cash-raising schemes, including a sale of some investments, and could tap its undrawn margin loans borrowed against its valuable ownership in chip firm Arm Holdings, sources said. The “all-in” bet on OpenAI is among the biggest yet by SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, as the Japanese billionaire seeks to improve his firm’s position in the race for artificial intelligence. To come up with the money, Son has already sold SoftBank’s entire $5.8 billion stake in AI chip leader Nvidia, offloaded $4.8 billion of its T-Mobile US stake, and slashed staff. Son has slowed most other dealmaking at SoftBank’s Vision Fund to a crawl, and any deal above $50 million now requires his explicit approval, two of the sources told Reuters. Son’s firm is working to take public its payments app operator, PayPay. The initial public offering, originally expected this month, was pushed back due to the 43-day-long U.S. government shutdown, which ended in November. PayPay’s market debut, likely to raise more than $20 billion, is now expected in the first quarter of next year, according to one direct source and another person familiar with the efforts. The Japanese conglomerate is also looking to cash out some of its holdings in Didi Global, the operator of Chinas dominant ride-hailing platform, which is looking to list its shares in Hong Kong after a regulatory crackdown forced it to delist in the U.S. in 2021, a source with direct knowledge said. Investment managers at SoftBank’s Vision Fund are being directed toward the OpenAI deal, two of the above sources said. SoftBank’s scramble to marshal funds offers a window into the strain faced even by the world’s biggest dealmakers as they scramble to finance ambitious AI data center projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars. SoftBank declined to comment. SOFTBANK HAS OPTIONS OpenAI has not yet received the remaining funding, but expects the money to come in by the end of 2025, as stipulated in the contract, sources said. SoftBank has multiple sources of capital it could tap, including margin loans, cash on its balance sheet, stakes in listed companies, and corporate bonds or bridge loans, sources said. Son has strong reasons to draw on a range of funding mechanisms to fulfill those obligations. SoftBank secured a deal to invest in OpenAI at a $300 billion valuation in April. Since then, the valuation of OpenAI has risen dramatically and the company is in talks to raise additional funding from investors, including Amazon, tripling its valuation to close to $900 billion, one of the sources added, which would give SoftBank a significant paper gain once the transaction is completed. A major pool of capital for SoftBank is its undrawn capacity of margin loans borrowed against its ownership of British semiconductor and software design company Arm Holdings. SoftBank recently expanded its margin loan capacity by $6.5 billion, bringing the total undrawn capacity to $11.5 billion. Arms stock has since tripled from its IPO price, providing SoftBank with additional collateral headroom to expand its borrowing capacity. SoftBank reported parent-level cash of 4.2 trillion yen ($27.16 billion) as of September 30. The group still owns about 4% of T-Mobile US, remaining the wireless carriers second-largest shareholder, a stake worth roughly $11 billion at the end of September, according to LSEG data. Despite investing at a less active pace, it has continued to back AI startups such as Sierra and Skild AI. OPENAI NEEDS THE MONEY Both OpenAI and SoftBank are investors in Stargate, a $500 billion initiative to build AI data centers for training and inference that executives say is crucial to the U.S. government’s ambitions to keep ahead of China in AI. The rush to build data centers has also prompted tech giants including Meta Platforms to commit unprecedented sums to these buildouts – which need chips, power, cooling, and servers – and they have brought in deep-pocketed partners to spread the risk. Their hefty capital outlays have sparked concerns about what happens if the investments fail to bring commensurate returns, raising the specter of an “AI bubble” bursting. SoftBank promised in April to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI – $10 billion of which the startup would receive the same month. The rest of the payment was contingent on the AI startup transitioning to a for-profit corporation by the end of the year, an ambitious feat that OpenAI achieved in October. The new funding is crucial for covering OpenAIs rising costs to train and run its AI models as competition from Alphabet’s Google ratchets up. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees recently that the company is now entering a code red phase to improve ChatGPT delaying other product rollouts to fend off the momentum behind Googles Gemini. In October, Altman said OpenAI aimed to build 30 gigawatts of computing capacity for $1.4 trillion. He said he ultimately wants OpenAI to add 1 gigawatt of compute every week – an enormous target given that each gigawatt currently comes with a capital cost of more than $40 billion. (Reporting by Echo Wang in New York, Krystal Hu and Deepa Seetharaman in San Francisco and Miho Uranaka in Tokyo; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Matthew Lewis) Echo Wang, Miho Uranaka and Krystal Hu, Reuters
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E-Commerce
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. According to our analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices are up +0.2% year-over-year between November 2024 and November 2025. While that pace has decelerated over the past yearback in November 2024, the national year-over-year home price growth rate was +2.3% it has ticked up slightly from the recent low of -0.01% in August 2025. In the first half of 2025, the number of major metro area housing markets seeing year-over-year declines climbed. That count has since stopped ticking up. 31 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 10% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window. 42 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 14% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the February 2024 to February 2025 window. 60 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 20% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window. 80 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 27% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window. 96 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 32% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the May 2024 to May 2025 window. 110 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 36% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the June 2024 to June 2025 window. 105 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 36% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the July 2024 to July 2025 window. 109 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the August 2024 to August 2025 window. 105 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the September 2024 to September 2025 window. 105 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the October 2024 to October 2025 window. 98 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 33% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the November 2024 to November 2025 window. Earlier this year, an increasing number of housing markets slipped into year-over-year price declines as the supply-demand balance gradually tilted more toward buyers. But in recent months, the list of declining markets has begun to stabilize as inventory growth has decelerated. Home prices are still climbing in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Coloradowhere active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levelsare seeing modest home price pullbacks. Many of the housing markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. That Sun Belt softening was further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. As a result, some buyers who might have previously opted for existing homes are instead choosing new construction with more attractive dealsadding further upward pressure to resale inventory growth over the past few years. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); Of course, while 98 of the nations 300 largest metro area housing markets are seeing year-over-year home price declines, another 202 are still seeing year-over-year home price increases. Where are home prices still up on a year-over-year basis? See the map below. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
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E-Commerce
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